The Novelty of New Stadiums: Evidence from 40 Years in Major League Baseball

Authors: Richard Flight¹and Mark Mitchell²

Mark Mitchell, DBA

Professor of Marketing

Associate Dean, Wall College of Business

NCAA Faculty Athletics Representative (FAR)

Coastal Carolina University

P. O. Box 261954

Conway, SC 29528

[email protected]

(843) 349-2392

Richard Flight, PhD is Associate Professor of Marketing at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, SC. He previously worked in minor league baseball with the Memphis Redbirds and Birmingham Barons as well as Division I college athletics at Samford University.

Mark Mitchell, DBA is Professor of Marketing at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, SC. He has served for 10 years as the NCAA Faculty Athletics Representative (FAR). He has conducted much research on minor league sports.

The Novelty of New Stadiums: Evidence from 40 Years in Major League Baseball

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to advance a new model to estimate the stadium novelty effect for newly-built Major League Baseball (MLB) stadiums over the last 40 years. Unlike prior studies that use nominal annual attendance data, this study uses marginal attendance change to capture the impact new stadiums have on attendance when mitigating (or controlling for) the impact that team performance has on attendance.

Methods: The incidence of the construction of new MLB stadiums is identified over a 40+ year period. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) method, a base attendance model is estimated. Then, the new stadium construction observations are added to capture the effect they have on predicted attendance. Unique to this study, marginal change in attendance is used rather than change in (absolute) nominal attendance. Year-over-year percentage change in attendance helps nullify key deficiencies in prior studies such as stadium size disparities and variations in market size. Additionally, this research combines the effects of extensive team performance variables and player salaries to control for non-stadium externalities which also impact attendance.

Results: There have been 23 new MLB stadiums built from 1980-2023. Stadiums for expansion teams or team relocations are not included in this study. Collectively, the MLB teams that built new stadiums see, on average, a 29.6% increase in attendance during the first year in the new stadium with effects lasting up to 21 years. When controlling for other factors (player salaries, winning percentage and other team statistics) the novelty effect is significant (b = .216) in multiple regression analysis.

Conclusion: Teams that build new baseball stadiums can expect an increase in attendance when controlling for team performance and player salaries. This effect holds even while some new stadiums were purposefully built to have fewer fans and offer a ‘closer-to-game’ fan experience. In other cases, the addition of luxury boxes reduced the number of available seats but added a class of seats that demand a premium price from consumers. This strategy allowed teams to cultivate new fans and new revenue streams for their teams.

Application in Sport: A baseball stadium is a fixed asset with an anticipated lifespan. No stadium lasts forever in its original form. At some point, a stadium must be remodeled or replaced to meet the needs of current consumers or fans may shy away from attending games. New stadiums can help grow attendance, diversify the fan base, and develop new revenue streams to help teams compete financially in Major League Baseball.

Key Words: stadium novelty effect; Major League Baseball; attendance; new stadium construction; franchise expansion

The Novelty of New Stadiums: Evidence from 40 Years in Major League Baseball

INTRODUCTION

Ballpark managers, team owners, and city officials often cite lagging attendance as the prime reason to build new sport facilities and stadiums. They argue an out-of-date stadium discourages fan attendance and recommend the investment in new-and-improved stadiums. A key goal associated with building a new facility is revenue growth by increasing fan attendance with the promise of an enhanced fan experience, often with an expanded premium ticket and entertainment options. These new facilities often offer operating efficiencies with the use of new technology to lower operating costs and boost profit margins for stadium operators (28).

Historically, when a team builds a new stadium their observed attendance goes up (35). Anecdotally, a new facility brings greater enthusiasm from not only the fan base but also from media partners, advertisers, and players that see grandeur in the new stadium. For example, the Atlanta Braves moved from Turner Field (located in downtown Atlanta) to then-named SunTrust Park (located in the northern suburbs) in 2017. Total attendance for the first season at Sun Trust Park increased approximately 24% over the final season at Turner Field. The new stadium offered a comprehensive gameday experience including dining and shopping that went beyond a traditional baseball game. Further, the suburban location was more accessible to many fans, including expanded parking facilities (32). Though fan attendance can sometimes decline after the opening year (38), the average attendance per game in Atlanta’s SunTrust Park actually increased in year two and year three (3).

The purpose of this study is to advance a new method to estimate the Stadium Novelty Effect in Major League Baseball by examining newly-built MLB stadiums and the associated attendance figures over a 40+ year period. First, a brief description of relevant literature is provided. Next, the study methods are presented as well as the data analysis plan. Finally, the findings are presented and the implications for baseball team owners and communities are advanced.

THE IMPACT OF NEW STADIUMS IN SPORT

Fan Attendance and the Fan Experience

The phenomenon of attributing increased fan attendance to the introduction of a new stadium is known as the Stadium Novelty Effect (2, 7, 8, 14, 18, 27). This effect, also referred to as the Honeymoon Effect (4), has been observed in numerous applications including: European soccer (10, 35); baseball (6); basketball (5); and hockey (18).

There is broad agreement that attendance tends to increase with the introduction of a new stadium. There is less agreement on the duration of this positive impact on attendance. In early literature by Noll (26), the stadium novelty effect was estimated to last somewhere between seven and eleven years. More recently, Hamilton and Kahn (16) estimate a much shorter three-year duration of this temporary surge in attendance. Others suggest the temporary upward shift is followed by a return to the original attendance levels with limited long-term benefits (14, 36). Howard and Crompton (18) conclude that the initial stadium novelty effect is limited often to just a single year with eventual declines after the first year in the new facility after studying NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL leagues. Most recently, Bradbury (5) suggested a new stadium will bring an initial surge in attendance that breaks down over the initial ten-year period.

One motivation for new stadium construction and renovation is the fan’s experience based upon the facility and its service environment. It must be noted, however, that sport fans can vary in their degree of fandom and their subsequent expectations during game attendance. Both Hoehn and Szymanski (17) and Porat (30) detail a spectrum from casual to involved or committed. Meanwhile, Samra and Wos (33) provide a fan typology including temporary, devoted, and fanatical.

A seminal question to ask is ‘how do fans derive value from the ballpark experience?’ To varying degrees fans value the quality of on-the-field performance. They also value the experience of a game delivered in a safe, clean, and exciting environment provided by a new stadium. Frequently the call for greater amenities is made in the argument for building a new stadium. In fact, it is asserted that new stadiums may become attractions within themselves regardless of team performance (1, 18). The new stadium setting incorporates features that modern, state-of-the-art facilities are expected to have. The ‘stadium as an attraction’ position suggests that fans immerse themselves in the new stadium atmosphere regardless of team performance. In essence, the team’s performance may not be great, but the atmospherics of the stadium creates a pleasurable experience worth the cost and worthy of repeatedly returning for another game. In short, some fans place greater value on the on-field product, whereas others place it on the atmosphere and conditions of the stadium.

While fan experience is vital, the fan base’s devotion to the team and team brand will certainly influence their willingness to attend games. Some teams are known to have loyal fans and seemingly have little trouble reaching stadium capacity. The Chicago Tribune ranked all 30 major league baseball teams by team value (34). Not surprisingly, there is a significant correlation (r = .66) between this team valuation and average team attendance since 1980 (3). These estimated team valuations are provided in Table 1.

Table 1: MLB Teams Ranked by Team Valuation (with Corresponding Fan Attendance)

Rank	Team	2024 Valuation ($B)	Average Home Attend (1980-2023)
1	New York Yankees	5.59	2,986,328
2	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.28	2,353,169
3	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.75	3,333,426
4	Chicago Cubs	3.67	2,619,327
5	Boston Red Sox	3.6	2,583,650
6	San Francisco Giants	3.21	2,501,129
7	New York Mets	2.48	2,486,904
8	St. Louis Cardinals	2.235	2,998,742
9	Philadelphia Phillies	2.22	2,339,642
10	Houston Astros	2.19	2,167,333
11	Atlanta Braves	2.165	2,297,852
12	Los Angeles Angels	2.04	2,737,988
13	Washington Nationals	2.0	1,760,801
14	Texas Rangers	1.84	2,285,151
15	San Diego Padres	1.65	2,084,153
16	Seattle Mariners	1.62	2,009,274
17	Chicago White Sox	1.54	1,845,744
18	Toronto Blue Jays	1.53	2,460,458
19	Minnesota Twins	1.52	1,982,394
20	Baltimore Orioles	1.46	2,425,704
21	Cleveland Indians	1.375	1,843,168
22	Colorado Rockies	1.36	2,769,199
23	Detroit Tigers	1.33	2,144,746
24	Cincinnati Reds	1.325	2,016,894
25	Oakland Athletics	1.3	1,769,573
26	Milwaukee Brewers	1.29	2,132,008
27	Pittsburgh Pirates	1.26	1,679,759
28	Miami Marlins	1.14	1,464,552
29	Kansas City Royals	1.1	1,845,441
30	Tampa Bay Rays	1.03	1,400,312

New Stadiums in MLB

While an expensive and disrupting proposition, building a new stadium is somewhat common in Major Lague Baseball. From 1980-2023, 23 new stadiums were built for non-expansion or relocation teams. Additionally, 5 other new stadiums were built for new franchises (including the Montreal Expos move to Washington, DC). The timing of new stadium constructions between 1980 – 2023 is presented in Figure 1. An overview of the stadiums themselves is provided in the Appendix.

Figure 1: Newly-Built Major League Baseball Stadiums by Year (1980-2023)

Over a thirty-year span the positive impacts of the new stadium effect have been measured by researchers using a variety of methods. Calculating the aggregate impact of new stadiums in Major League Baseball, Fort (11) provides a methodology typical of this research that specifies the difference between the first year in the new stadium and the previous five-year’s averages for those teams that built new stadiums. Fort (11) finds the change in attendance for a select period to be a positive net increase of 624,000 fans for teams that built new stadiums. Conversely, those teams that did not build new stadiums realized a net increase of 96,000 fans over the same time period.

While this common approach speaks to the impact new stadiums have on league attendance, debate continues as to the team and market specific nature of the stadium novelty effect and how to best measure them. Recently, van Ours (35) employed a ‘difference-in-differences’ (DiD) method with a sample of 8 Dutch stadiums. Here, the researchers used a control group to establish an initial model, then introduced new stadium data and observed the change or difference between the two in a two-way fixed effect regression.

This study also uses the ‘difference in differences’ (DiD) method. Unlike prior studies that use attendance per team while also employing time-dependent independent variables, this study uses percentage change in attendance from the immediate prior year for each team including those with new stadiums. Using marginal (or percentage) change in attendance from the prior year marks a deviation from prior studies that use nominal annual attendance as the dependent variable with additional prior years attendances as independent variables. Using prior attendance as independent variables, as in time series modeling, generates significant multi-collinearity concerns and effectively overfits most lagged time series or autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models. Using nominal change in attendance from one year prior does not carryover anticipated attendance which tends to overfit the model. Further, the use of marginal annual change mitigates the effects of wide variations in both stadium and market sizes across the vast time horizon studied here.

METHODS

This study uses Major League Baseball attendance records, team on-field performance, and new stadium construction data from the 1980 through 2023 playing seasons. In all, 30 teams are represented in the total data set with 23 new stadiums built during that 40+ year time span. The initial subject pool includes Major League Baseball (MLB) team attendance and performance data from 1979 through 2023 which were accessed and downloaded from the data aggregator baseball-reference.com (a depository for sports performance data). The data analysis plan for this study consisted of three stages.

Stage One

The purpose of Stage One is to collect team performance and fan attendance data. Refinements will be made to the data where warranted. For example, team relocations or the awarding of expansion teams do not offer a before-and-after scenario to analyze the stadium novelty effect. So, the data for these years will be excluded. In addition, data attached to seasons that experienced work stoppages are also excluded as it is assumed attendance figures tied to these reasons are atypical for a variety of reasons (such as fan resentment, etc.). Finally, fan attendance data during the COVID-19 period were eliminated as fan attendance limits, public health concerns, and lingering fan apprehension to attend group events impacted game attendance.

Stage Two

The purpose of Stage Two is to develop a base model to predict fan attendance in the absence of a new stadium using the difference-in-difference methodology. Then, team performance and team salary data for each year and team is regressed on the percentage change in team attendance from year to year (the dependent variable). This model can be used to predict attendance and will be later extended to include the effects of new stadiums in Stage Three.

Stage Three

The purpose of Stage Three is to add new stadium attendance observations to the base model along with the addition of a dummy variable to identify these figures as attached to the introduction of a new stadium. It is here that the final results are calculated and the summary findings advanced.

PRESENTATION OF DATA ANALYSIS

Stage One – Refining the Sample Size

Team performance and attendance data were downloaded by team and year from 1980-2023 (inclusive). 26 teams played from 1980-1992, with expansion to 28 teams in 1993, and then again to 30 teams in 1998. Counting each team during this time span, there are 1,288 observations in the initial data set. As previously noted, this study uses a ‘difference-in-differences’ or DiD approach. Bradbury (5) states “a primary concern with DiD comparisons is the selection of control units that are devoid of treatment effects; therefore, it is imperative to exclude observations of teams that may be experiencing novelty influences from existing venues or entering new markets through team relocations and league expansions.” For this reason, new stadium observations were omitted for expansion franchises, including Colorado (1993), Florida (1993), Tampa Bay (1998), and Arizona (1998). Additionally, the relocation of the Montreal Expos to Washington, DC in 2005 was also omitted given the new stadium in a new market had no comparable previous season attendance data.

Impact of Labor Disputes. During the timeline of the study, there were two significant work stoppages (1981 and 1994) due to labor-management disputes. These years pose two challenges observed in the data.

During each strike year, the dependent variable (percent change in attendance) was (on average) noticeably lower than expected.

During the year following the 1981 strike (1982), the dependent variable was (on average) noticeably greater than expected.

These two anomalies lead to an uncontrollable externality that isn’t explained by performance, marketing, or stadium effects and warrant exclusion. As such, the seasons of 1981, 1982, and 1994 are excluded from this analysis.

Impact of COVID-19 Global Pandemic. The 2020 MLB regular season was reduced to 60 games and played without fans. The post-season was played at neutral sites (Globe Life Field Arlington, TX; Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX; Petco Park in San Diego, CA; and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA). Given the lack of fans (and attendance data), the 2020 season was excluded from this analysis.

Impact of Pent-Up Demand Following Global Pandemic. The lingering effects of COVID seem to decline during the 2022 season as evidenced by the spike in game attendance. This behavioral change by fans caused the dependent variable (percent change in attendance) to be greater than expected for the 2022 season. As illustrated in Figure 2, the reader will note the high and low spikes in average percent change in attendance. These ‘dips’ and ‘spikes’ represent externalities outside the scope of this study. As such, the 2022 season was also excluded from this analysis.

Figure 2: Average Percent Change in MLB Attendance by Year (1980-2023)

Tracking the Revisions to the Sample. Collectively, five MLB seasons (1981, 1982, 1994, 2020, and 2022 we excluded from this analysis for the reasons noted above. Additional data adjustments included accounting for individual abnormal ‘outlier’ observations. Individual observation outliers are identified using Mahalonabis Distance2 analysis (15). In doing so, 117 observations are found to be structurally outside of the norm and were also excluded from this analysis. The final data set consists of 1,001 observations for study analysis. A summary of refinement process that affected the sample size is provided in Table 2.

Table 2: Summary of the Refined Sample Size Used in This Analysis

	Existing Stadiums	New Stadiums	TOTAL
All Years	1,206	23	1,228
Excluding franchise expansion, relocations, strike and COVID effected years.	1095	23	1118
Final sample excluding outliers.	978	23	1,001

Stage Two – Creating the Base Model to Predict Attendance (Without New Stadium Data)

Following a difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology (see 5, 35), this stage creates a base model to predict attendance in the absence of any new stadiums. This base model specifies the predictive ability of team variables (such an on-field player performance and player salaries) on attendance. Team performance and salary data from each eligible team and year (i.e., where no new stadium or major stadium renovations occurred) is regressed on the percentage change in attendance (dependent variable). This base model will first be used to predict attendance while later this base model will be extended to include the effect of new stadiums.

While year-over-year marginal change in attendance is the dependent variable, the independent variables include team statistics for offense, defense, and pitching as well as total player payroll (see Table 3 for list of variables). Prior literature has incorporated a limited selection of performance variables and team salary and lagged prior year attendance to predict attendance. Our approach is to incorporate 28 performance variables simultaneously:

Team (4 variables)

Offense (13 variables)

Pitching (6 variables)

Defense (5 variables)

By doing so, the model is able to construct a broader test of variables which may affect attendance. As an economic growth component, payroll suggests that greater player payrolls translate into better on-field performance which impacts attendance (21). It should be noted that the model specification does not incorporate time dependent variables as one might find in a time series analysis. Thus, there is not a controlling element for economic inflation or timely building trends that may emerge over a 40-year time horizon. While league expansion has taken place, study does not use new stadiums as there is no pre- and post-construction paired data.

Table 3: Independent Variables Used in Base Model

Variable Categories	Variable	Description
Team:	Salary	Estimated player payroll. (Standardized)
	Win Percentage	Total wins divided by games played.
	Home Win Percentage	Total wins divided by games played at home only.
	Run Difference	Average difference in runs scored vs runs allowed.

Offense:	Runs Scored per game	Average runs scored per game.
	Hits	Number of hits in the year.
	Doubles	Number of doubles in the year.
	Triples	Number of triples in the year
	Home Runs	Number of home runs in the year.
	Runs Batted In	Number of Runs-Batted-In in the year.
	Stolen Bases	Number of bases stolen in the year.
	Caught Stealing	Times caught stealing in the year.
	Batter Walks	Number of walks in the year.
	Batter Strike Outs	Total batter strike outs in the year.
	Team Batting Average	Number of hits divided by at bats for the team.
	On-Base Percentage	Times reached base divided by plate appearances.
	Slugging Percentage	Percentage of hits weighted by based reached.

Pitching:	Runs Allowed Per game	Average runs allowed per game.
	Team ERA	Average runs given up divided by 9.
	Hits Allowed	Hits allowed by pitchers in a year.
	Home Runs Allowed	Home runs allowed in a year.
	Walks Allowed	Walks allowed in the year.
	Strike Outs Pitched	Strike outs pitched in the year.

Defense:	Defensive Efficiency	Estimate of balls in play that result in converted outs.
	Assists	Assists made in the year.
	Errors Committed	Errors committed in the year.
	Double Plays Turned	Double Plays made in the year.
	Fielding Percentage	(Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors)

Using IBM’s SPSS (version 29.0.1.0) a liner regression is performed using a stepwise entry method for variable selection. This method allows the most attractive variables to be entered into the model first, while consecutively testing, dropping, and adding variables until the best-fitting model emerges.

Stage Three – Creating the Extended Model to Include New Stadium Data

Once a base model is estimated, new stadium attendance observations are added to the sample along with a dummy variable coded for new stadium observations. As noted earlier, 23 new stadiums (observations) are added during this stage which are reflected in this new variable. The new variable that is built into the model during this stage accounts for the presence of a new stadium, coded by ‘1’ while all other observations (existing stadiums) are coded ‘0’. If the stadium novelty effect exists, then the regression coefficient (beta) for the new dummy variable will be significant and the model fit (r2) will improve. Similar to Stage Two, the dependent variables were retained by using a stepwise entry method for variable selection. This stage provides a comparative model directed by the difference-in-difference approach.

RESULTS

Predictive Models

Base Model Without New Stadium Data. A primary goal of this study is to measure the stadium novelty effect while controlling for the influence of team performance and player salaries. During Stage Two, a base model is estimated using a stepwise regression which retained the best predictive variables and strongest model fit. The sample under investigation for base-mode specification has 978 observations resulting in an adjusted r2 fit of .198 and significant F statistic. (see Table 4).

Table 4: Base Model Fit Statistics and Coefficient Estimates

R	R Square	Adjusted R Square	Std. Error of the Estimate
0.450	0.202	0.198	0.155

	Sum of Squares	Df	Mean Square	F	Sig.
Regression	5.579	5	1.116	46.429	<.001
Residual	22.012	916	.024
Total	27.591	921

	Unstandardized Coefficients (Beta)	Std. Error	Standardized Coefficients (Beta)	t	Sig.	VIF
(Constant)	-.977	.113		-8.627	<.001
Winning Percentage	.957	.084	.372	11.345	<.001	1.35
Salary	-.043	.007	-.251	-5.862	<.001	2.112
Strikeouts / Game	.025	.007	.159	3.648	<.001	2.189
Hits	.000	.000	.102	3.146	.002	1.197
Stolen Bases	.000	.000	.083	2.645	.008	1.120

Extended Model Including New Stadium Data. Upon the addition of new stadium observations during Stage Three, the extended model demonstrates an increase in model fit (r2) from .198 to .230. Moreover, the new stadium dummy variable is significant (.001) and strong when compared to the other variable’s standardized betas, at .216, only “winning percentage” and “batting average” serve as better predictors of changes in attendance from year to year. (see Table 5).

Table 5: Extended Model (with New Stadium Variable) Fit Statistics and Coefficient Estimates

R	R Square	Adjusted R Square	Std. Error of the Estimate
.486	0.236	0.230	0.157


	Sum of Squares	Df	Mean Square	F	Sig.
Regression	7.085	7	1.012	41.199	<.001
Residual	22.921	933	.025
Total	30.006	940


	Unstandardized Coefficients (Beta)	Std. Error	Standardized Coefficients (Beta)	t	Sig.	VIF
(Constant)	-.730	.072		-10.201	<.001
Winning Percentage	.950	.093	.359	10.240	<.001	1.502
New Stadium	.274	.037	.216	7.480	<.001	1.016
Salary	-.050	.007	-.277	-6.627	<.001	2.138
Strike Outs / Game	.023	.007	.139	3.362	<.001	2.075
RBIs	.000	.000	.151	3.937	<.001	1.789
Walks (Hitter)	.000	.000	-.109	-3.019	.003	1.600
Stolen Bases	.000	.000	.073	2.396	.017	1.124

The Magnitude of Stadium Novelty Effects

In this study we define the year prior to a new stadium as a “base-year” and then compare attendance in the new stadium to the base-year. This comparative process found an average change in attendance of 29.6% during the first year of play in a newly-constructed stadium. This 29.6% increase in attendance equates to an average increase of 762,263 fans for a new stadium’s inaugural season. Meanwhile, average marginal change for each successive year remains positive until year 21 as illustrated in Figure 3. By comparison, the average annual change in attendance increases for non-new stadium observations was just 2.36%, or an average increase of 63,553 fans for the study timeframe.

Figure 3: Average Percentage Change in Fan Attendance by Stadium Age

As other studies indicate, attendance attributed to a new stadium is greatest during the first year and diminishes over time. In fact, based on study data new MLB attendance appears to decay at a rate of 1.19% per year after the introduction of the new stadium given the correlation of stadium age (in years) and percent change in attendance (r = .84). While it is unclear if all the factors contribute to attendance decay, it is plausible that the newness or novelty of the stadium diminishes while its new amenities become outdated and/or worn out. This study appears to provide a longer and slower decline in attendance extending Noll (26) that finds the stadium novelty effect is between seven and eleven years and dismisses the one-to-three-year effects that Hamilton and Kahn (16), Voight (36), Greenberg and Gray (14), and Howard and Crompton (18) all find.

A novelty of these findings is the approach used by defining the dependent variable as percent change in attendance in an effort to remove externalities that cannot be controlled across franchises. Annual attendance models using nominal annual attendance fail to capture the effect of stadium size variations and the size of the attendance variable which overweighs time-series data and can capture a very large portion of systemic error from year to year.

The Impact of On-Field Team Performance

This study further advances the current literature on stadium novelty effects by testing numerous team performance variables. Prior studies included a limited number of team performance variables such as “winning percentage” or “playoff appearances” (22). This study’s initial variable pool of 28 performance-related variables offers a more exhaustive list of performance metrics to (assumedly) better capture the influence of team performance on attendance in the presence of stadium novelty effects. In doing so, we find that five variables play a significant role in determining attendance, including: (a) winning percentage (b=.354, <.001); (b) strikeouts per game (b=.139, <.001); (c) RBIs (b=.151, <.001); (d) walks by hitter (b=-.109, .003); and (e) stolen bases (b=.073, .017). Meanwhile, team player salary (b=-.277, <.001), while a significant variable, appears to be negatively associated with attendance change. This finding is unusual and unexpected based on common perceptions that higher paid athletes tend to attract more attention.

As noted, a team’s winning percentage is found to be a key performance driver to attendance. As one can imagine, teams that perform better attract more fans. Data suggests that there is a significant correlation (r = .477) between winning percentage and home attendance figures (3). Likewise, “team ERA” is negatively associated with attendance (r = -.208) and “team batting average” is positively correlated with attendance (r = .221). In short, fans generally show up in greater numbers when teams improve on-field performance. On average, teams realize a modest 1.2% increase in home winning percentage a year after the new stadium is built, which is consistently found in other research (see 19, 20, 29, 31, 37).

CONCLUSIONS

This research builds further support for the impact new stadiums have on short-term fan attendance and financial outcomes. The building of a new stadium can be expected to increase season attendance by 29.3% for the first year of play. That elevated first-year attendance does not last forever. Rather, it tends to decline by approximately 1% per year for the next 20 years. During this entire 20-year span, overall fan attendance tends to remains higher than would have been predicted had the new stadium not been built in the first place.

By (a) modifying the dependent variable to a percent change in attendance and (b) including many more performance indicators as dependent variables, this study adds to the richness of the ongoing research into stadium novelty effects. Limitations of the study include the lack of multi-sport applications as this study focuses on Major League Baseball and does not include other professional sports such as soccer, football, or basketball. In addition, it does not include developmental and/or non-professional leagues.

Moreover, we do not account for cultural trends that may occur promoting or detracting from new stadium construction. Notably, over the time horizon, stadiums have moved from large capacity multi-use facilities to smaller ‘baseball-only’ spaces. Also, there is an increasing trend to re-locate stadiums outside of dense urban areas, Finally, the trend of sprawling multi-business complex models has also added to the art of new stadium construction. Today, new stadiums are built with an economic ecosystem surrounding the facility to include dining, entertainment, and other hospitality venues such as hotels. Finally, the model outlined in this research, while demonstrating sufficient fit statistics, fails to capture all the variation in marginal attendance change on a year-over-year basis. As such, future research should seek to include additional independent variables that can improve the model.

Stadium novelty effects are real and substantial. This study presents a new method to be used to measure and predict their impact on total attendance in any sport and at any level (college, professional, etc.).

APPLICATION IN SPORT

A baseball stadium is a fixed asset with an anticipated lifespan. No stadium lasts forever in its original form. At some point, a stadium must be remodeled or replaced to meet the needs of current consumers or fans may shy away from attending games. New stadiums can help grow attendance, diversify the fan base, and develop new revenue streams to help teams compete financially in Major League Baseball. While, new stadiums represent new branding opportunities, they also offer teams the opportunity to reach new audiences with improved and updated amenities. These benefits likely translate to greater financial outcomes for the team, however the financial debate is complicated affecting many stakeholders. While team owners may be obvious benefactors, the financial incentives offered by local governing bodies reflect a mutual perceived benefit from the broader tax-paying community.

As noted above, the introduction of a new stadium tends to trigger a large increase in first year attendance (over 29%) and while that figure tends to decline over time, the net result is that total attendance tends to stay higher than it would have been in the absence of new stadium construction for the next 20 years. This suggests local governments should be willing to consider some level of public financing for stadium construction for a minimum of 20 years, and possibly longer.

For teams that played in the 1980 MLB season, 6 teams continue to play in their original (albeit updated) stadiums: Boston Red Sox; Chicago Cubs; Kansas City Royals; Los Angeles Angels; Los Angeles Dodgers; and Oakland Athletics. Sixteen MLB teams have occupied 2 stadiums over this period while 3 teams have played in 3 different home stadiums over this 40+ year period. One team (the Montreal Expos) relocated to Washington, DC.

At the time of this writing, 3 new MLB ballparks have been projected including the Oakland A’s new park in Las Vegas with an estimated price tag of $1.75 billion as well as new parks in Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox are exploring new park opportunities (9, 12). Beyond Major League Baseball, new stadium construction is viewed as an integral part of any team brand and fan-base strategy. At least five new Minor League Baseball parks have been built since 2020 including: Beloit Sky Carp’s ABC Supply Stadium; Kannapolis Cannon Ballers’ Atrium Health Ballpark; Worcester Red Sox’ Polar Park; Rocket City Trash Pandas’ Toyota Field; and the Wichita Wind Surge’s Riverfront Stadium (23, 25). It will be interesting to see the impact of these new stadiums on fan attendance in their respective cities.

The issue of new stadium construction and/or the massive remodel of existing baseball stadiums is also taking place in NCAA Division I baseball. The Board of Regents of Georgia State University (located in downtown Atlanta) have approved the construction of a new downtown baseball stadium in the footprint of the old Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. The new stadium will allow the team to play closer to campus than their current stadium which is located 12 miles from their center-city location (13). Old Dominion University will play its entire 2025 baseball season in away games and/or nearby minor league stadiums (as available) as it remodels its on-campus baseball stadium (24).

Over the last decade, many schools in the Southeastern Conference (such as the University of Florida, University of Kentucky, Mississippi State University, and the University of South Carolina) have greatly expanded, or even replaced, their college baseball stadiums. This wave of stadium updates is expected to continue and spread to other sports and facilities. These new stadiums may possibly extend the research on stadium novelty effects into college sports.

Sports fans have many options for their time, attention, and entertainment dollar. Teams cannot assume casual fans will continue to attend games just because it is part of the local culture. Increasingly demanding fans want an updated fan experience, even in historical stadiums like Wrigley Field in Chicago or Fenway Park in Boston. This study demonstrates that overall attendance goes up when new MLB stadiums are built. While this spiked year-one attendance may decline modestly each year, this ‘decline’ is from an elevated number of fans due to the introduction of new stadium in prior years. So, in an interesting way, the ‘bonus attendance’ of the new stadium provides the cushion (or pays for) the modest reductions in attendance over time. Then, at some point in the future, the team may begin discussions of replacing their now 30-year-old stadium (again).

CONCLUDING REMARKS

When baseball fans wax poetically about their memories of MLB games from their childhoods, these descriptions are not limited to their favorite players. Embedded in these memories are the sights-and-sounds of the stadium, such as the glow of the lights for a night game, the call of the popcorn vendors, or the smell of a hot dog cooking on the grill. Enhancing the in-stadium fan experience is an integral part of success in the sports industry of today.

As noted earlier, 3 MLB teams have played in 3 different home stadiums over the timeframe of this study:

Atlanta Braves: Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium to Turner Field to the current Truist Park.

Minnesota Twins: Metropolitan Stadium to the Hubert Humphry Metrodome to the current Target Field.

Texas Rangers: Arlington Stadium to The Ballpark at Arlington to the current Globe Life Field.

It will be interesting to see the lifespan of these newer stadiums. When Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, Metropolitan Stadium and Arlington Stadium were all originally constructed, no one could dream of the day when these shining new stadiums would be replaced. Living decades in the future, we know ‘the rest of the story.’ These stadiums have been replaced … and their replacement stadiums have been replaced. The long-term cycle continues.

REFERENCES

Austrian, Z. and Rosentraub, M. (1997). Cleveland’s gateway to the future. In R.G. Noll and A. Zimbalist (Eds), Sports, Jobs and Taxes. Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institute.

Baade, R. and Sanderson, A. (1997). The employment effect of teams and sports facilities. In R.G. Noll and A. Zimbalist (Eds.), Sports, Jobs and Taxes, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institute.

Baseball Reference (2024). Atlanta Braves attendance, stadiums, and park factors. Retrieved from: https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=T5QB2

Borland, J. and Macdonald, R. (2003). Demand for sport. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 19(4), 478-502.

Bradbury, J. (2024). Revisiting the novelty effect from new stadiums: An event study approach. Economic Inquiry, (62), 1722-1747.

Clapp, C. and Hakes, J. (2005). How long a honeymoon? The effects of new stadiums in Major League Baseball. Journal of Sports Economics, 6(3), 509-521.

Coates D. and Humphreys, B. (2000). The stadium gambit and local economic development. Regulation, 23(2), 15-20.

Danielson, M. (1996). Home Team: Professional Sports and the American Metropolis. Princeton University Press.

ESPN (2024, December 5). A’s clear last major hurdles for $1.75 billion Las Vegas stadium. Retrieved from: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42802400/a-clear-last-major-hurdles-175-billion-las-vegas-stadium

Feddersen, A., Maennig, W., and Borcherding, M. (2006). The novelty effect of new soccer stadia: The case of Germany. Journal of Sport Finance 1(3). 174-188.

Fort, R. (2003). Sports Economics. Pearson Education, Inc.

Future ballparks. (n.d.). Ballparks of Baseball. Retrieved from: https://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/future-ballparks/

Georgia State University (2024, May 14). Board of Regents approves new downtown baseball stadium. Georgia State University Athletics. Retrieved from: https://georgiastatesports.com/news/2024/5/14/athletics-board-of-regents-approves-new-downtown-baseball-stadium.aspx

Greenberg, M. and Gray, J. (1996). The Stadium Game. Marquette University Law School; National Sports Law Institute.

Hair, J., Black, W., Babin, B., and Anderson, R. (2018). Multivariate Data Analysis (8^th Edition). Prentice-Hall

Hamilton, B. and Kahn, P. (1997). Baltimore’s Camden Yards ballparks. In R.G. Noll and A. Zimbalist (Eds.), Sports, Jobs and Taxes, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institute.

Hoehn, T. and Szymanski, S. (1999). The americanization of european football. Economic Policy, 14(28). 205-240.

Howard, D. and Crompton, J. (2003). An empirical review of the stadium novelty effect. Sport Marketing Quarterly, 12(2), 111-116.

Huang, Y. and Soebbing, B. (2022). The novelty effect and on-field team performance in new sports facilities: the case of the Canadian Football League. Sport Management Review, 25(1), 88-205.

Kahane, L. (2005). Production efficiency and discriminatory hiring practices in the National Hockey League: A stochastic frontier approach. Review of Industrial Organization, (27), 47-71.

Langhorst, B. (2014). What do your fans want? Attendance correlations with performance, ticket prices, and payroll factors. Baseball Research Journal, 43(1),101-108

Leeds, M., Allmen, P., and Matheson, V. (2018). The Economics of Sports (6^th Edition). Routledge.

MiLB.com (2023). Batting around: New ballparks for a new era. Retrieved from: https://www.milb.com/news/batting-around-new-ballparks-for-a-new-era

Minium, H. (2024, May 9). ODU’s baseball series against App State is the last at Bud Metheny Stadium before $20 million overall. Old Dominion Sports. Retrieved from: https://odusports.com/news/2024/05/9/minium-odus-baseball-series-against-app-state-is-the-last-at-bud-metheny-stadium-before-dollar20-million-overhaul

MLB.com (2023). Newest ballparks in Minor League Baseball. MLB.com. Retrieved from: https://www.mlb.com/news/featured/newest-ballparks-in-minor-league-baseball

Noll, R. (1974). Attendance and price setting. In RG Noll (Ed.), Government and the Sport Business. Washington D.C.; The Brookings Institute.

Noll, R. and Zimbalist, A. (1997). Build the stadium create the bobs! In R.G. Noll and Zimbalist (Eds.), Sports, Jobs and Taxes, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institute.

Perry, K. (2001). Professional sports attendance as a proxy for new stadium spillover benefits. The Park Place Economist, 9, 62-70.

Popp, N., Richards, J. and Weight, E. (2018). Measuring the impact of a significant college baseball stadium project on recruiting, on-field success, and fan attendance. Journal of Contemporary Athletics, 12(3), 175-188.

Porat, A. (2010). Football fandom: A bounded identification. Soccer and Society, 11(3), 277-290.

Quinn, K., Bursik, P., Borick, C., and Raethz, L. (2003). Do new digs mean more wins? The relationship between a new venue and a professional sports team’s competitive success. Journal of Sports Economics, 4(3), 167-182.

Reichard, P. (2017, September 6). 2017 ballpark of the year: SunTrust Park, Atlanta Braves. Ballpark Digest. Retrieved from: https://ballparkdigest.com/2017/09/06/2017-ballpark-of-the-year-suntrust-park-atlanta-braves/

Samra, B. and Wos, A. (2014). Consumer in sports; Fan typology analysis. Journal of Intercultural Management, 6(4), 263-288.

Sheade, B. (2021, April 15). The most and least valuable MLB teams. Chicago Tribune. Retrieved from: https://www.chicagotribune.com/2021/04/15/the-most-and-least-valuable-mlb-teams/

van Ours, J. (2024). No novelty effect but a honeymoon that lasts: On the attendance effects of new football stadiums. Sports Economics Review, 5, 1-14.

Voight, D. (1983). American Baseball Volume 3; From Postwar Expansion to the Electronic Age. State College, PA: Pennsylvania College University Press.

Watson, J. and Krantz III, A. (2003). Home field advantage: New stadium construction and team performance in professional sports. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 97(3), 794-796.

Zygmont, Z. and Leadley, J. (2005). When is the honeymoon over? Major league baseball attendance 1970-2000. Journal of Sport Management, 19(3), 278-299.

George Minoso2025-05-16T09:56:27-05:00July 26th, 2025|General, Sport Education, Sports Facilities, Sports Management|Comments Off

From Classroom to Kickoff: A Case Study on the Perceived Value and Career Impact of Experiential Learning at the Super Bowl for Sport Management Students

Joshua S. Greer¹, Jason Grindstaff², Noa Stroop³

Dr. Joshua S. Greer serves as an Assistant Professor and Program Director for both the graduate and undergraduate Sport Management programs at Cumberland University. He also fulfills the role of Internship Coordinator for Exercise Science and Sport Management within the Jeanette C. Rudy School of Nursing and Health Professions. Dr. Greer holds a B.S. from the University of Tennessee at Martin, an M.Ed. from Bethel University, and an Ed.D. from the United States Sports Academy. His academic interests focus on experiential learning, sport marketing, and industry engagement, aiming to prepare students for dynamic careers in the sport industry.

Dr. Jason S. Grindstaff is the Interim Dean of the Jeanette C. Rudy School of Nursing and Health Professions at Cumberland University, where he has been a faculty member since 2010. He has taught across undergraduate and graduate programs in Exercise & Sport Science and has held leadership roles including Program Director for the Master of Sport & Exercise Science, Executive Director of the Honors Program, and Chair of the Academic Integrity Board. Dr. Grindstaff earned his B.A. from Dakota Wesleyan University, two M.S. degrees and a Ph.D. from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and an M.B.A. from Cumberland University.

Dr. Noa D. Stroop is an Assistant Professor of Business at Cumberland University. He completed both his B.S. and M.B.A. at Tennessee Technological University and earned his D.B.A. from Trevecca Nazarene University. Dr. Stroop’s professional background includes roles as a consultant, coach, and business leader. At Cumberland, he focuses on delivering practical, student-centered business education, integrating real-world applications into his teaching.

Joshua S. Greer. https://orcid.org/0009-0005-2890-1673

We have no known conflict of interest to disclose.

Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Joshua S. Greer, 230 Foxfire Road, Paris, Tennessee 38242. Email: [email protected]

Abstract
Experiential learning is a foundational component of sport management education, offering students the opportunity to apply theoretical knowledge in real-world settings. Grounded in Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory, this case study investigates the perceived value and career impact of an immersive experiential learning opportunity at the NFL Super Bowl. Using a mixed-methods approach, data were collected from 11 undergraduate and graduate sport management students through a structured survey instrument. Paired samples t-tests were used to assess the alignment between students’ pre-event expectations and their post-event perceptions, while Pearson correlation analysis examined relationships between networking confidence and career-related outcomes.

Results revealed that students’ actual experiences exceeded their expectations in terms of professional development (t(9) = 3.67, p = 0.005), while expectations regarding a competitive edge remained consistent with post-event perceptions (t(9) = -0.56, p = 0.591). Strong positive correlations were found between networking confidence and key career outcomes, including meaningful connections (r = 0.84, p = 0.002) and perceived job prospects (r = 0.90, p < 0.001). These findings emphasize the importance of structured, high-impact experiential learning opportunities in developing students’ professional readiness and self-efficacy.
The study offers actionable insights for educators and program administrators, emphasizing the need to set realistic expectations while maximizing long-term career development through experiential learning. Recommendations include expanding access to immersive experiences and integrating reflective components to reinforce the value of applied learning in sport management curricula.

Key Words: experiential learning, sport management education, Super Bowl, career development, student perceptions, networking confidence, Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory, applied learning, professional readiness, event-based learning

From Classroom to Kickoff: A Case Study on the Perceived Value and Career Impact of Experiential Learning at the Super Bowl for Sport Management Students
Experiential learning has emerged as a cornerstone of sport management education, offering students practical experiences that bridge theoretical knowledge with the complexities of real-world practice. Grounded in Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory, this pedagogical approach has informed the design of various instructional strategies, including capstone projects, industry simulations, and problem-based learning (Bower, 2013). The incorporation of experiential components within sport management curricula not only fosters the development of technical and interpersonal skills but also enhances students’ employability by immersing them in authentic, applied contexts (DeLuca & Fornatora, 2020; Faure & Ray, 2021).

This case study explores the perceived value and career impact of participating in an immersive experiential learning opportunity at the NFL Super Bowl for sport management students. Specifically, it investigates the extent to which guided, real-world experiences influence students’ confidence in pursuing careers in the sport industry and examines the alignment between their pre-event expectations and the professional benefits perceived post-participation. Utilizing survey data from student participants, the study contributes to the expanding literature on experiential learning in sport management education by providing empirical insights into its efficacy. The findings offer practical implications for educators, curriculum developers, and industry stakeholders seeking to enhance student career readiness through intentionally designed, high-impact experiential learning initiatives.

Literature Review
In response to the growing complexity and competitiveness of the sport industry, academic institutions have increasingly recognized the need to integrate experiential learning into sport management curricula. Traditional lecture-based instruction, while foundational, often falls short in preparing students for the multifaceted demands of the professional sport environment. As a result, experiential learning has emerged as a critical pedagogical approach, bridging the gap between theoretical instruction and real-world application. Grounded in Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory, this educational strategy encompasses internships, client-based projects, event planning, consulting practicums, and blended learning environments—all of which immerse students in authentic industry settings. A growing body of literature demonstrates that such experiences not only enhance technical and interpersonal competencies but also foster critical career readiness attributes, including problem-solving, adaptability, communication, and leadership (Faure & Ray, 2021; Barefoot et al., 2023; Song et al., 2021). Furthermore, structured experiential opportunities facilitate professional networking, mitigate employment anxiety, and strengthen students’ confidence in their career trajectories (Chan, 2023; Wei & Fu, 2024). This case study explores the multidimensional value of experiential learning within sport management education, emphasizing its role in cultivating career preparedness, professional identity, and industry engagement through both in-person and virtual platforms.

Experiential Learning in Sport Management
Research continues to highlight the value of experiential learning in cultivating core competencies in sport management students. For instance, Faure and Ray (2021) demonstrated that student participation in a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) championship event served as a meaningful capstone experience, sharpening real-time problem-solving and organizational skills. Similarly, interdisciplinary, problem-based learning environments have been found to improve oral communication and data analysis capabilities through engagement with complex, profession-relevant scenarios (Song et al., 2021). Additionally, applied improvisation exercises have been shown to facilitate the development of meta-skills—such as adaptability and collaboration—that are increasingly valuable across sport management domains (Barefoot et al., 2023). Service-learning models, which build upon traditional internships by embedding guided engagement, offer further opportunities for students to apply classroom learning while contributing to societal needs (Gipson et al., 2023).
The integration of experiential learning within sport management programs is inherently multifaceted. Educators utilize various strategies—including internships, guided field-based projects, and blended learning environments—to address the evolving demands of the sport industry. Structured activities such as facility inspections and managerial interviews provide students with hands-on experiences that mirror operational realities within sport organizations (Diacin, 2018). Concurrently, hybrid learning models that combine in-person instruction with digital tools support flexibility in pedagogy and promote consistent engagement across experiential initiatives (Lower‐Hoppe et al., 2019). Recommendations for improving experiential learning practices, particularly internships—emphasize the need for continual assessment and innovation to better align educational outcomes with industry expectations (Brown et al., 2018; Sattler, 2018).
Collectively, these approaches highlight the significance of experiential learning as both a theoretical framework and a practical mechanism for enhancing professional preparedness in sport management. As the field continues to evolve in response to industry shifts, experiential learning remains essential for equipping graduates with the critical thinking, decision-making, and reflective capacities necessary for sustained career success.

The Importance of Experiential Learning in Sport Management Curricula
The integration of experiential learning into sport management curricula is increasingly acknowledged as a critical component for preparing students to navigate the complexities of a dynamic and competitive job market. Faure and Ray (2021) emphasize the effectiveness of capstone experiences in promoting student readiness, noting that hands-on learning cultivates both confidence and professional competence. In alignment with this perspective, Southall et al. (2003) contend that the inherently competitive nature of the sport industry demands a strong experiential foundation to ensure that graduates possess the practical skills and applied knowledge necessary for success. Gipson et al. (2023) further reinforce the value of immersive learning opportunities—such as internships and structured, guided-learning projects—as essential mechanisms for bridging the gap between theoretical instruction and real-world application. These experiences not only deepen student engagement but also foster critical thinking, adaptability, and problem-solving capabilities, which are essential for sustained professional growth in the sport industry.

A growing body of research supports the idea that experiential learning aligns with the industry’s increasing demand for professionals who can seamlessly apply their knowledge in various sport-related contexts. Traditional lecture-based instruction, while foundational, often falls short in equipping students with the practical skills required to navigate the complexities of sport management. By contrast, experiential learning models encourage students to engage in active learning environments, allowing them to develop competencies in areas such as leadership, teamwork, communication, and adaptability—skills that are highly valued by employers in the field.

Methodologies and Strategies in Experiential Learning
A variety of experiential learning strategies have been implemented across sport management programs, each offering unique benefits to students. One such method is the use of client-based projects, particularly in sport sales courses. Pierce (2018) illustrates how these projects not only engage students but also simulate real-world sales environments, fostering practical experience in negotiations, client relations, and revenue generation. Similarly, Bower (2013) discusses the application of Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory in organizing events such as golf scrambles, which provide students with opportunities to engage in hands-on event management and problem-solving.

Guided-learning projects and internships are among the most effective experiential learning strategies in sport management education. These initiatives allow students to work directly with sport organizations, gaining firsthand exposure to industry challenges and operations. Coffey and Davis (2019) note that these experiences are particularly valuable for student-athletes, as they help translate their on-field teamwork and leadership skills into professional settings. Additionally, guided-learning projects often involve community engagement, which enhances students’ understanding of corporate social responsibility and the broader impact of sport organizations.

Faculty mentorship and supervision also play a crucial role in the success of experiential learning programs. Deluca and Fornatora (2020) argue that faculty guidance during applied coursework is vital for maximizing learning outcomes, as instructors help students navigate complex projects and reflect on their experiences. This perspective is echoed by Pierce and Petersen (2010), who emphasize the importance of assessing student learning outcomes in experiential settings to quantify the effectiveness of these educational experiences. Assessment tools such as reflective journals, portfolio development, and performance evaluations ensure that experiential learning remains structured, and outcome driven.

The Role of Blended Learning in Experiential Education
As technology continues to reshape education, blended learning approaches have gained traction in sport management programs. Lower-Hoppe et al. (2019) propose that combining online and face-to-face instruction can optimize learning outcomes by accommodating diverse learning styles while maintaining the integrity of experiential projects. This approach is particularly relevant in sport event management courses, where students can engage in virtual simulations, case studies, and live event planning.
Blended learning also facilitates greater accessibility to experiential opportunities, particularly for students who may face geographic or financial barriers to participating in traditional internships. Online platforms enable students to engage with sport professionals, analyze real-time industry data, and develop strategic solutions to contemporary sport management issues. By integrating digital tools with hands-on experiences, educators can create a more inclusive and effective learning environment.

Networking Opportunities
Experiential learning has emerged as a crucial pedagogical strategy to enhance both networking and career readiness among students. In particular, work-integrated learning opportunities—including internships, consulting practicums, and co‐curricular activities enable students to develop career readiness attributes by providing direct exposure to workplace practices and professional networks. Chan (2023) argues that exposing students to diverse, real‐world situations through hands-on learning not only develops essential work readiness skills but also creates networking opportunities that can significantly influence career outcomes. Similarly, Mayorga (2019) demonstrates that higher education institutions can effectively develop career readiness through incubator programs that immerse students in authentic, situational learning environments, thereby facilitating connections with industry professionals.

Structured experiential initiatives also foster networking by placing students in scenarios where practical skills blend with professional interactions. Jackson and Bridgstock (2020) highlight that work-integrated learning activities, such as internships, guided field experiences, and practicum placements, are instrumental in forging meaningful interactions with industry practitioners. This interaction is further emphasized by Akpan (2016), who shows that consulting practicums effectively equip students with the necessary career skills while simultaneously providing platforms for networking with experienced professionals. Prather (2007) documents that internships allow students to experience a connected learning environment where classroom theory is continuously integrated with workplace practices, thus promoting both skill acquisition and the expansion of professional networks.

The design and implementation of experiential learning modules play a critical role in fostering career readiness by promoting reflective practices that enhance self-assessment and informed decision-making. Wart et al. (2020) and Aithal and Mishra (2024) emphasize that hands-on experiences coupled with structured reflection enable students to refine their professional identities and clarify their career goals. These reflective processes are vital not only for the development of technical competencies but also for cultivating essential soft skills such as communication, adaptability, and leadership, which are crucial for effective professional networking.

In addition to traditional in-person experiences, the incorporation of virtual platforms into experiential learning offers expanded opportunities for career development. Combs, Joyce, and Bynum (2024) demonstrate that digital environments can effectively support networking by connecting students with mentors and industry professionals, particularly when geographic or logistical barriers limit face-to-face interaction.

Experiential learning also addresses the psychological dimensions of career preparation, such as employment anxiety and self-efficacy. Wei and Fu (2024) and Chen and Tang (2024) advocate for the integration of experiential teaching into career planning curricula to reduce employment-related stress and reinforce professional confidence. Exposure to realistic workplace scenarios and ongoing interaction with industry professionals helps students contextualize their academic knowledge, navigate relational dynamics, and build meaningful networks.
Taken together, experiential learning offers a multidimensional approach to career readiness by simultaneously developing technical and interpersonal competencies, promoting reflective growth, and fostering network-building. Through a variety of mechanisms—including internships, consulting practicums, hands-on projects, and virtual platforms, students gain direct exposure to professional expectations and establish critical industry connections. This holistic framework enhances not only students’ employability but also their long-term capacity to succeed within the dynamic landscape of the sport management profession.

Conclusion
As the sport industry grows in complexity and competitiveness, the need for experiential learning in sport management education becomes increasingly imperative. This study emphasizes how experiential learning bridges the gap between academic instruction and real-world application through methodologies such as internships, capstone projects, guided-learning experiences, and blended learning environments. The integration of these strategies has demonstrated significant benefits, including the enhancement of critical thinking, adaptability, and industry-specific competencies.

Participation in large-scale events, such as the Super Bowl, represents a pinnacle of experiential learning, offering students a rare opportunity to immerse themselves in high-stakes, professional environments. These experiences provide not only technical skill development but also instill confidence, professional identity, and career direction. The value of faculty mentorship, structured assessment tools, and intentional curricular design further amplifies the effectiveness of experiential initiatives, ensuring that they are both impactful and aligned with industry expectations.

Looking ahead, continued research is essential to evaluate the long-term career benefits of experiential learning and to identify best practices for maximizing its impact. Expanding partnerships between academic institutions and sport organizations will be crucial in offering meaningful, scalable, and inclusive experiential opportunities. Ultimately, embedding experiential learning deeply within sport management education equips students with the tools they need to transition from the classroom to the kickoff—prepared, confident, and career-ready.

Materials and Methods
Participants
The total number of 11 participants were included in this study. The gender distribution was as follows: 7 participants (63.6%) were female, and 4 participants (36.4%) were male. Of these, 6 participants (54.5%) were graduate students, including 4 (66.7%) females and 2 males (33.3%).

Instrument
From Classroom to Kickoff: Evaluating the Career Benefits of Super Bowl Experiential Learning Survey (attached)
Data Treatment and Analysis
Statistical analyses were conducted to address the research questions and evaluate the perceptions of sport management students regarding the career benefits of participating in the NFL Super Bowl experiential learning opportunity. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize participant responses. Paired samples t-tests were conducted to compare students’ expectations before the event with their perceived outcomes (e.g., professional development, competitive edge, career benefits). Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the relationships among key outcome variables such as confidence in career pursuits, networking effectiveness, and perceived career impact. Open-ended responses were analyzed thematically to supplement quantitative findings and provide deeper insight into students’ overall satisfaction and willingness to recommend the experience.

Results and Discussion
Student Expectations and Perceived Outcomes
The results of the paired samples t-tests revealed several important findings related to students’ expectations and perceived outcomes from their Super Bowl experiential learning experience. A significant difference was found between students’ expectations of gaining hands-on learning (Q1) and their perceptions of professional development after the experience (Q2), t(9) = 3.67, p = 0.005. This suggests that students felt their actual experience exceeded their initial expectations regarding professional development.

In contrast, no significant difference was found between students’ expectations of gaining a competitive edge in the job market (Q11) and their perceptions following the event (Q12), t(9) = -0.56, p = 0.591. This indicates that students’ expectations were generally aligned with their perceived benefits in this area. However, a highly significant difference was observed between students’ expectations of receiving direct career opportunities, such as job offers or interviews (Q13), and their reported outcomes (Q14), t(9) = 6.00, p < 0.001. This suggests that while students were optimistic about immediate career benefits, those expectations were not fully met in the short term.

Networking Confidence and Career Perceptions
The Pearson Correlation analyses revealed several statistically significant associations between students’ self-reported networking confidence and career-related perceptions, highlighting the potential impact of experiential learning within sport management education. A strong positive correlation was observed between students’ confidence in their networking abilities (Q10) and their belief that participation in the Super Bowl experience would enhance their future job prospects (Q5), r = .90, p < .001. This suggests that students who expressed higher levels of confidence in their networking skills were more likely to view the experience as a meaningful contributor to their professional development.

Similarly, a strong positive correlation was found between networking confidence (Q10) and students’ beliefs that the professional connections formed during the event would support future opportunities, such as employment, internships, or graduate assistantships (Q9), r = .77, p = .009. This indicates that students who perceived greater utility in their networking efforts also reported higher levels of self-assurance in their ability to build professional relationships. In addition, a strong correlation was identified between networking confidence (Q10) and the extent to which students reported making meaningful professional connections during the event (Q8), r = .84, p = .002. These findings collectively suggest that students who felt more confident in their networking capabilities were also more likely to report engaging in valuable professional interactions.

Career Readiness and Perceived Professional Development
Beyond networking-specific outcomes, further analysis revealed significant relationships involving overall career readiness and perceived professional development. Students who felt more prepared for a career in sport management (Q3) were more likely to recommend the Super Bowl experience to others (Q15), r = .80, p = .005. A strong correlation was also found between the alignment of students’ assigned tasks and their perception that the experience met their expectations for professional development (Q6), r = .88, p < .001. Notably, students who believed the Super Bowl experience gave them a competitive advantage in the job market were significantly more likely to report already receiving tangible career benefits, such as internship offers or job interviews (Q13), r = .89, p < .001. One additional correlation between networking confidence and perceived competitive advantage (Q10 and Q12)—approached statistical significance, r = .60, p = .066, suggesting a potentially meaningful relationship that could be more clearly established in studies with larger sample sizes. Collectively, these findings highlight the interconnectedness of networking confidence, career preparedness, and the perceived value of high-impact experiential learning. The strength and consistency of the correlations support the notion that participation in major sporting events such as the Super Bowl can meaningfully enhance students’ professional development trajectories within the field of sport management.

Conclusion
The present study contributes to the growing body of literature emphasizing the value of experiential learning in sport management education by examining student perceptions of professional development, career readiness, and networking outcomes resulting from participation in the NFL Super Bowl. The findings emphasize the importance of high-impact learning experiences in enhancing students’ confidence, career awareness, and perceived marketability within the competitive sport industry. Quantitative analyses revealed that students’ expectations regarding hands-on learning and professional development were not only met but exceeded, as demonstrated by significant increases in post-event perceptions. While students’ expectations regarding competitive advantage remained consistent, the anticipated short-term career outcomes such as job offers or interviews were not fully realized. This discrepancy suggests a need to frame experiential learning as a catalyst for long-term, rather than immediate, professional advancement.

The strong and consistent correlations between networking confidence and several career-related outcomes highlight the pivotal role of self-efficacy in professional relationship-building. Students who reported higher levels of networking confidence were more likely to form meaningful connections, perceive the experience as professionally valuable, and anticipate long-term career benefits. These findings align with existing research that underscores the importance of confidence and social capital in career development among emerging sport professionals.
Additionally, the alignment between assigned tasks and students’ expectations was a significant predictor of overall satisfaction and perceived professional growth. This supports the argument that carefully structured and intentional experiential learning opportunities are critical in maximizing the educational and professional value of such events. This study affirms the potential of large-scale sport events like the Super Bowl to serve as transformative learning environments that foster career readiness, enhance networking abilities, and solidify students’ commitment to pursuing careers in sport management. Future research should consider longitudinal approaches to evaluate the enduring effects of these experiences on actual career outcomes, including job placement, graduate school enrollment, and professional advancement. Additionally, expanding sample sizes and incorporating multi-institutional data could strengthen generalizability and provide further insights into best practices for experiential learning program design.

Research Limitations and Implications
While this study offers meaningful insights into the perceived benefits of Super Bowl experiential learning, several limitations should be acknowledged. First, the small sample size (n = 11) limits the generalizability of the findings. Although the data revealed significant patterns and correlations, the results may not fully represent the experiences of a broader population of sport management students. Future studies with larger and more diverse participant pools would enhance the reliability and applicability of these findings. Despite these limitations, the findings have important implications for sport management education. Experiential learning at large-scale events like the Super Bowl can play a critical role in enhancing students’ career preparedness, particularly in the areas of networking and professional confidence. Academic programs should continue to prioritize and expand these opportunities, while also integrating reflective components that help students connect their experiences to broader career goals.

References

Aithal, P. S., & Mishra, N. (2024). Integrated framework for experiential learning: Approaches & impacts. International Journal of Case Studies in Business, IT and Education, 8(1), 354–367. https://doi.org/10.47992/ijcsbe.2581.6942.0340
Akpan, I. J. (2016). The efficacy of consulting practicum in enhancing students’ readiness for professional career in management information systems: An empirical analysis. Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative Education, 14(2), 155–170. https://doi.org/10.1111/dsji.12109
Barefoot, M., Martinez, J. M., & Morrow, H. S. (2023). Applied improvisation in the sport management curriculum. Sports Innovation Journal, 4(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.18060/27405
Bower, G. G. (2013). Utilizing Kolb’s experiential learning theory to implement a golf scramble. International Journal of Sport Management Recreation & Tourism, 12, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.5199/ijsmart-1791-874x-12c
Brown, C., Willett, J., Goldfine, R., & Goldfine, B. (2018). Sport management internships: Recommendations for improving upon experiential learning. Journal of Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism Education, 23, 98–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhlste.2018.02.001
Chan, B. T. Y. (2023). Driving the career readiness agenda in Hong Kong higher education. Frontiers in Education, 8, Article 1325592. https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2023.1325592
Chen, X., & Tang, M. (2024). Constructing virtual teaching and research centers for business English education: A framework for application-oriented universities. Journal of Education and Educational Research, 6(1), 58–70. https://doi.org/10.54097/v9dj3k61
Coffey, D., & Davis, J. (2019). The holistic approach to academia: Traditional classroom instruction and experiential learning of student-athletes. Education Sciences, 9(2), 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci9020125
Combs, M., Joyce, R., & Bynum, C. (2024). Impact of a cybersecurity work-related course on students’ career thoughts and attitudes. Journal of the Colloquium for Information Systems Security Education, 11(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.53735/cisse.v11i1.185
De Schepper, J., & Sotiriadou, P. (2017). A framework for critical reflection in sport management education and graduate employability. Annals of Leisure Research, 21(5), 564–582. https://doi.org/10.1080/11745398.2017.1336107
DeLuca, J. R., & Fornatora, E. (2020). Experiential learning from a classroom desk: Exploring student perceptions of applied coursework. Sport Management Education Journal, 14(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1123/smej.2019-0015
Diacin, M. J. (2018). An experiential learning opportunity for sport management students: Manager interview and facility inspection. Sport Management Education Journal, 12(1), 41–44. https://doi.org/10.1123/smej.2017-0033
Faure, C., & Ray, B. M. (2021). Lighting up the sky: Experiential learning at a NCAA championship event. Journal of Kinesiology & Wellness, 10, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.56980/jkw.v10i.90
Gipson, C., Mutchler, J., Mallhi, A. K., & Lambert, A. (2023). “I felt we were actually learning things, then applying them.” Sports Innovation Journal, 4(1), 16–30. https://doi.org/10.18060/27392
Gipson, K., Smith, S., & Jones, R. (2023). “I felt we were actually learning things, then applying them.” Sports Innovation Journal, 9(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.18060/27392
Jackson, D., & Bridgstock, R. (2020). What actually works to enhance graduate employability? The relative value of curricular, co-curricular, and extra-curricular learning and paid work. Higher Education, 82, 903–922. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-020-00570-x
Lower‐Hoppe, L. M., Wanless, L., Aldridge, S. M., & Jones, D. W. (2019). Integrating blended learning within sport event management curriculum. Sport Management Education Journal, 13(1), 44–51. https://doi.org/10.1123/smej.2018-0024
Mayorga, L. K. (2019). HEIs and workforce development: Helping undergraduates acquire career-readiness attributes. Industry and Higher Education, 33(6), 396–403. https://doi.org/10.1177/0950422219875083
Pierce, D. (2018). Using experiential client-based projects in sport sales courses. International Journal of Marketing and Sales Education, 12(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.4018/ijmse.2018010101
Pierce, D., & Petersen, J. (2010). Experiential learning in sport sales: Student perceptions of sport sales expectations, skills and preparation. Sport Management Education Journal, 4(1), 49–62. https://doi.org/10.1123/smej.4.1.49
Prather, C. D. (2007). Experiential learning in collegiate aviation: The use and assessment of internships. Collegiate Aviation Review International, 25(2), 53–62. https://doi.org/10.22488/okstate.18.100359
Sattler, L. A. (2018). From classroom to courtside: An examination of the experiential learning practices of sport management faculty. Journal of Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism Education, 23, 84–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhlste.2018.02.002
Song, C., Riddell, H., & Ryan, S. (2021). Improving students’ oral communication skills through an interdisciplinary problem-based learning opportunity in a sport management course. International Journal of Physical Education, Fitness and Sports, 10(3), 18–27. https://doi.org/10.34256/ijpefs2133
Southall, R. M., Nagel, M. S., & LeGrande, D. (2003). The role of experiential learning in sport management education. Sport Management Review, 6(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1441-3523(03)70002-6
Van Wart, A., O’Brien, T. C., Varvayanis, S., Alder, J., Greenier, J., Layton, R. L., Stayart, C. A., Wefes, I., & Brady, A. E. (2020). Applying experiential learning to career development training for biomedical graduate students and postdocs: Perspectives on program development and design. CBE—Life Sciences Education, 19(1), ar10. https://doi.org/10.1187/cbe.19-12-0270
Wei, L., & Fu, Y. (2024). Navigating future pathways: Repercussions of experiential teaching on employment anxiety in career planning courses. European Journal of Education Studies, 11(8), 78–91. https://doi.org/10.46827/ejes.v11i8.5421

George Minoso2025-05-05T10:49:36-05:00July 18th, 2025|General, Leadership, Sport Education, Sports Management|Comments Off

Shamateurism in Romanian Soccer Refereeing: The Path to Professionalization in an Evolving Sports Landscape

Authors:Andrei Antonie

Faculty of Social Sciences and Business Studies, University of Eastern Finland, FINLAND

Andrei Antonie, PhD. candidate

Mitropolitul Andrei Şaguna Street no. 57,

Bucharest, 012931, Romania

[email protected]

+40 744 334 018

Andrei Antonie has been a PhD Candidate at the University of Eastern Finland since 2011. His research focuses various aspects of soccer referees’ careers, such as career development and stress factors, as well as on sport policy. Andrei has also been an active soccer referee in the Romanian top tier (Superliga) since 2017 and has participated several times in the Dallas Cup as a referee.

Shamateurism in Romanian Soccer Refereeing: The Path to Professionalization in an Evolving Sports Landscape

ABSTRACT
Purpose: Top-level soccer has become part of the international entertainment industry. The role and status of referees have changed over the last 30 years. The purpose of this study was to (a) analyze the level of referee professionalization in European football and (b) place Romanian refereeing on the sport labor market. Methods: Analytic autoethnography and interactive interviews were the research methods used in this study. I have been refereeing since 2002 and part of the elite refereeing population since 2017. The interactive interviews with the six Romanian elite soccer referees were held in July 2023. Key findings: The results offer evidence that referees’ professional status is influenced by the TV rights dimension, refereeing being a ‘serious leisure’ activity in the leagues with insignificant revenues and being recognized as a profession in the ‘top’ European leagues. The intermediate step is ‘shamateurism’, which also applies to Romanian refereeing. Romanian elite referees have an amateur status, even though they have a professional approach and their refereeing income exceeds the earnings from their regular jobs. Moreover, a significant number of Romanian top-league referees have no regular jobs, or they work for regional soccer associations in order to focus on refereeing. Romanian elite refereeing is characterized by monopsony, due to the relationship between the governing bodies and the referees’ earnings, working conditions, and labor conditions. Conclusion: The findings generally support the idea of interdependence among the domestic league revenues from TV rights contracts, refereeing professionalization status, and the monopsonic character of refereeing.

Key Words: soccer (football), referee, serious leisure, shamateurism, profession, monopsony

INTRODUCTION
Webb et al. (1) divided soccer (or football) into two social groups: the ‘ingroup’ (i.e., players, coaches, and spectators) is concerned with the result, winning being the primary objective, whereas the ‘outgroup’ (i.e., referees) is only interested in correctly applying the Laws of the Game and ensuring that the game is conducted according to them. Accepting that referees constitute a distinct ‘group’ inside soccer might lead to conflicts with players, coaches, and fans, which could give refereeing a negative image. Although the ‘ingroup’ frequently complains about the quality of today’s refereeing, there is ample evidence to suggest that referees and the quality of officiating are better than in the past. Referees are now in better physical condition, being stronger and faster than their predecessors because of technology, equipment, training facilities, and knowledge of body mechanics. Psychological and tactical preparation has improved referees’ performance in terms of correct decisions and game management.

Changes in soccer in recent decades have led to an explosion in the amount of research on the sport. Also, research on soccer refereeing has recently become an interesting area of scientific research, the most discussed topics being physiological demands, performance (e.g., decision making, mental demands, and stress during matches), and physical demands (e.g., fitness, training, and fatigue). Pina et al. (2) identified 267 studies of refereeing, while Vasilica et al. (3) found in their systematic review that only 381 studies have examined refereeing, with a limited number of researchers (i.e., 20) having published three or more studies.

Few articles address referees’ career trajectories. Antonie (4) developed a career success model for Romanian soccer referees, whereas Loghmani et al. (5) studied the career dynamics of Iranian elite soccer referees. Pina et al. (6) proposed a multidisciplinary skill model for excellent referees covering matters such as individual preparation, game preparation, and game management, whereas Mendes et al. (7) created a general referee performance model for Portuguese referees. Loghmani et al. (8) studied the job characteristics of Iranian soccer referees, focusing on internal psychological factors. Most occupational and professionalization research inside soccer has focused on players, with limited consideration given to referees. Little is known about the socio-economic aspects of refereeing, such as professionalization, labor conditions, and economic stability, due to the insignificant amount of research.

RESEARCH AIMS & METHODS

This study analyses the professionalization of soccer referees at two levels. First, I will review the general trends in the professionalization of refereeing, i.e., how top referees have gradually turned professional in the 2000s, especially in the ‘big European football’ countries. The main research questions are: How has this change occurred? What factors have contributed to this change? What will the situation be in the 2020s? Commercialization has had an impact on soccer in recent decades, and among the biggest impacts has been that of broadcasting, as reflected in TV rights deals. Nowadays, TV rights represent a significant part of league and club revenues, and have also impacted soccer refereeing. Second, I will focus on Romania, as an interesting target for such research because of its tradition and success in soccer, including in terms of refereeing. On the other hand, Romania is not one of the biggest soccer countries in the world or Europe. In any case, a shift is now occurring even in Romania toward the professionalization of referees. I will consider the position of the Romanian top referees between amateurism and professionalism: What is their position, and how do the top referees themselves perceive it?

One theoretical starting point of the analysis is Dunning’s (9) typology and the concept of ‘shamauterism’, which has been practiced in various forms across a variety of sports and countries. His conceptualization emphasized financial aspects, which were divided into legitimate and illegitimate payments, but also focused on athletes, with the referees being ignored in his analysis. Another theoretical perspective is Stebbins’ (10) concept of ‘serious leisure’, recognizing that, from a societal perspective, serious leisure participants are hobbyists, career volunteers, and amateurs. Career volunteers provide services in education, science, and civic affairs, whereas hobbyists and amateurs are common in art, entertainment, and sport. I will also link my analysis of the role of Romanian top referees to the concept of monopsony, as associated with the functioning of the labor market in professional sports. Rosen and Sanderson (11) recognized that Rottenberg was the first researcher to publish a serious economic analysis of labor markets in professional sports in 1956. Some of the topics Rosen and Sanderson discussed were monopsonist exploitation, investments in training, contracts, payments, and the player drafts, as well as their implications, and most of these topics are also applicable to soccer refereeing.

In-depth interviews are a key source material for this study of Romanian referees. The participants in this study were six male Romanian elite soccer referees operating at the highest national and international levels at the time of the interviews. According to the Romanian Football Association, the elite group of Romanian (Superliga) referees for the 2023–2024 season comprises 27 referees (25 male and two female). Before the interviews, the subjects received detailed information about the study. They were guaranteed anonymity, and pseudonyms are used to protect their identity. Because of privacy issues, no other information about the sampling of the selected referees will be disclosed. The interviews were held at the Summer Seminar for Romanian Elite Referees in July 2023. The sampling was done so as to represent the best of the population of Romanian elite soccer referees: two were FIFA referees, another two were Romanian top-league referees with over ten years of experience at the highest level, and the last two were considered ‘talents’, refereeing in the top league but with under five years of experience at this level.

Anderson (p. 375, 12) defined analytic autoethnography as ethnographic work in which “the researcher is (1) a full member in the research group or setting, (2) visible as such a member in the researcher’s published texts and (3) committed to an analytic research agenda focused on improving theoretical understanding of broader social phenomena.” My own refereeing career started in 2002 and I have been a Romanian elite referee (Superliga) since 2017. Therefore, I have not had to deal with any red tape regarding working closely with other elite referees: as part of the elite group, I have established both professional and personal relationships with them. Hughes and Pennington (p. 15, 13) stated that “autoethnographic methods of data collection and analysis are inclusive of many types of qualitative methods, such as reflective journaling, videotaping, interviewing and fieldwork.” As part of the elite referee population, I took part in the referees’ ‘hot topic’ discussions when meeting for courses and for matches. When asked targeted questions in interviews, the interviewees could not lie to me about certain facts and events that I also was privy to but that would have been unknown to an outsider. Their answers revealed confidential details of refereeing activity. The recorded discussions were frank and I was usually treated as a fellow referee and not as a researcher. At the same time, some topics might have been influenced by my subjectivity, just as their subjectivity could also have influenced the interviewees’ answers.

Semi-structured interviews were employed to investigate current referees’ challenges in terms of their occupation, not only in Romania but also around the world, through their life stories and experiences as elite referees. The interviews lasted 30–90 minutes (average, 55 minutes) and were conducted and recorded in the Romanian language. A narrative inquiry was conducted to enable the referees’ job trajectories, in terms of refereeing, to be constructed. Clandinin (p. 10, 14) described narrative inquiry as “an overarching term that encompasses the activities involved in generating, analyzing and re-presenting stories of life experiences.” An interactive in-depth interview protocol was designed to realize these aspects of narrative inquiry. On occasion, the questions were not asked in strict order or in their entirety, because the conversations moved into new and unexpected territory and so produced new information.

In line with Ryba et al. (15), I transcribed the interviews verbatim and then translated them into English. In the follow-up phase of the study, I read and reread the interviews several times. The thematic analysis was conducted based on common codes and comments, which represented the central themes of each interviewee’s narrative. A narrative analysis of form was performed to ensure that the narratives were coherent. Consequently, common discourses emerged from the professional stories of the interviewed referees. The information provided during the interviews about the referees’ employment by different national football associations (FAs) around the world was cross-verified where possible, using online sources or previous studies, to strengthen the reliability. Collecting data on referees’ employment types was challenging due to the limited transparency of the National Referee Committees. There are publicly available data on referee employment only from England, Japan, the USA, Canada, Iran, Belgium, and Mexico.
Being part of the Romanian elite soccer referee group helped me to get closer to the studied phenomenon and basically become part of it, although this could arguably create challenges in terms of validity and reliability. To enhance the validity and reliability of this research, the criterion of trustworthiness was integrated into the research process. In accordance with Merriam and Tisdell (16), two external peer reviewers with experience in soccer refereeing who are aware of the actual situation of Romanian refereeing confirmed that the findings were plausible. Confirmability was achieved by bracketing during the data collection and analysis process, to reduce researcher bias, eliminate preconceptions, and reflect data without prejudgments.

FROM SERIOUS LEISURE TO A PROFESSION IN REFEREEING

FROM SCHOOL MASTERS TO PROFESSIONALS

The role and status of referees have changed over the last 30 years. These changes are part of a wider cultural change in soccer that started in the 1980s, intensified in the following decade, and accelerated in the 2000s. Three major factors underlie these changes. The first is the growth of top-level soccer in particular, marketization, and an increased emphasis on economic factors, as top-level soccer has become part of the international entertainment industry. Second, the role of referees has been affected by major changes in the interpretation of the rules of football since the 1990s. The romantic period of refereeing lasted over 100 years, when referees had well-paid jobs and respected positions in society. The change was brutal as the referees now had to be top athletes due to the increased speed of the game, leading to the implementation of various fitness tests in order to ensure better physically prepared referees. Refereeing specialization also occurred, establishing the difference between referees and assistant referees. In short, these changes have increased the powers of referees, but also their responsibilities on the pitch. Third, the role of referees has changed in the 2000s with the introduction of technical equipment, the best-known examples being the video assistant referee (VAR) and goal-line technologies.

CURRENT REFEREEING PROFESSIONALIZATION LEVEL IN EUROPE

In recent decades, European domestic soccer competitions have grown notably as a commercial product in economic terms. One reason for this has been the continuous increase in the amounts paid for TV rights by broadcasters. The continuous growth of soccer as a commercial product has involved the greater professionalization of all actors involved in the industry, from management to coaches and players. Consequently, refereeing could not be excluded from this natural development. In 2017, Italian Serie A was the first domestic league that implemented VAR. This was one of the most significant changes in soccer and refereeing, and influenced the career paths of match officials. Samuel et al. (17) showed that VAR’s implementation changed the career prospects of Israeli elite referees. FAs across Europe have implemented VAR in the vast majority of top leagues in under ten years, which not only required financial investment in the technology, but also involved the appointment of a larger number of referees. Thus, the National Referee Committee has had to find strategies to attract referees and to determine the most suitable financial compensation.

Table 1 European Top Leagues’ Total Revenue and Domestic TV Rights

The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) (18) has released the financial data for all European domestic leagues for the 2023–2024 season. Table 1 presents the financial results of 52 out of 55 European domestic leagues (Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus are excluded from the analysis, because their data are influenced by current political conditions). The following analysis determines whether there are any links among league revenue, domestic TV rights, and VAR implementation (marked in bold and italics in Table 1), as well as the referees’ professionalization level in European countries.

REFEREEING AS SERIOUS LEISURE

The UEFA has divided the European football leagues into three groups based on their revenues. The analysis starts from the lowest leagues (i.e., the top 36–52), which have annual revenues under EUR 20 million. Eleven national leagues in this group have no TV rights income, while six others receive under EUR 0.5 million. A similar pattern applies to VAR implementation, as only six leagues in this group have benefited from it; interestingly, these six leagues are not the same six in this group that earn the most from TV rights.

The middle group of leagues (i.e., the top 21–35) are the ones with total revenues of EUR 20–100 million. Ten out of 15 of these leagues benefit from TV rights and, as can be noted, five leagues do not. Only one league in this group that sells TV right earns under EUR 1 million from doing so. Six of the leagues in this group earn EUR 1–10 million and the Cyprus league earns over EUR 15 million from selling TV rights. The only league earning over EUR 20 million from TV rights is the Romanian league. In terms of VAR implementation, 12 out of 15 leagues use VAR on a regular basis.

Based on the data on these two groups, 18 out of 33 leagues use VAR. In terms of TV rights, 16 out of these 33 leagues benefit economically from selling these rights, but only two receive more than EUR 10 million from doing so. As a consequence of the minimal professionalization of these leagues, refereeing is also affected. In these leagues, referees receive match fees and additional costs for travel and accommodation. In these conditions, refereeing cannot be considered more than ‘serious leisure’, as defined by Stebbins (p. 23, 10). ‘Serious leisure’ is “the systematic pursuit of an amateur, hobbyist, or volunteer activity sufficiently substantial and interesting for the participant to find a career there in the acquisition and the expression of a combination of its special skills, knowledge, and experience.” Johansen (19) concluded that Norwegian elite referees officiate because of their passion for the game and for social reasons, whereas their economic benefits are negligible, because the match fees have hardly any impact on their monthly income. Moreover, the financial unpredictability of refereeing was demonstrated by Voight (20), who revealed that one of the most important stress factors for US referees is the conflict between officiating and work demands, whereas the overall performance of Turkish referees is affected by their income (21). Voight’s research is partially supported by Gillue et al. (22), who studied stress factors among Spanish referees, finding that work and family demands were among the most important stress factors outside of matches. Rullang et al. (23) revealed that two of the key factors explaining why German referees end their careers are related to professional considerations and insufficient compensation. Their study was supported by Choi and Chui (24), who described how South Korean referees quit or leave their careers before becoming highly qualified due to financial reasons. Although the above-cited studies were conducted in countries other than those previously mentioned in this section, they might well be relevant, assuming that they treat familiar topics associated with serious leisure. It is common for financial, work, and family reasons to affect the elite referees in these countries. Hence, refereeing remains a ‘serious leisure’ activity as long as elite referees have other jobs and an amateur status in soccer in these countries, and no forms of refereeing employment are identified.

REFEREEING AS A PROFESSION

The European Top 20 leagues are among the most important ones worldwide and have annual revenues of EUR 100 million–7.1 billion, with greater total revenues associated with more valuable TV rights. In this group, only Czechia earns under EUR 10 million from TV rights, while the majority (13 out of 20) earn between EUR 20 million and EUR 100 million. The French and Portuguese leagues earn between EUR 180 million and EUR 500 million from their TV rights, whereas the broadcasters pay between EUR 1 billion and EUR 3.2 billion for the English, Spanish, German, and Italian league TV rights. In these leagues, soccer is a business, having a high degree of professionalization at all levels. The VAR implementation in 19 out of 20 of these leagues was a natural consequence of soccer development. There is one exception, however: Swedish fans own over 50% of each club’s shares, and they blocked VAR implementation in their league, considering that technological intervention would destroy the drama of the game.

Refereeing should be in line with the state of soccer’s economic development, so the best leagues should have the best prepared referees. Webb (25) stated that the question of the professionalization of referees was first raised in England in 1964. The subject was debated until 2001, when referees signed contracts in England, the first country in the world that recognized refereeing as a profession. Abadi et al. (p. 89, 26) defined ‘profession’ as “the work that an individual does for a living, having the degree of knowledge, expertise and training required.” Closely connected to profession is the notion of career success as explored by Shen et al. (p. 1755, 27), who studied ‘career success’ across 11 countries and defined it as “the accomplishment of desirable work-related outcomes at any point in a person’s work experiences over time.” Financial achievement is the primary indicator of a successful career worldwide, being closely followed by ‘promotion/achievements’, defined as a sense of career success based on attaining better positions or assignments. This can also be applied to soccer refereeing, where reaching the top means promotion resulting in better match assignments that result in higher match fees. At an international level, the elite FIFA referees from Europe (21 referees from 17 countries) did not mention the refereeing demands among the experienced stress factors (28). At the moment, 15 out of 20 of the European top leagues offer referees different types of contracts, as presented in Table 2.

Table 2 Soccer Referees’ Professionalization Level in Top 20 European Leagues

In terms of professionalization, England, Italy, and Germany are the most developed countries by far, because referees there who officiate in the first and second tiers are paid monthly salaries, although there are different types of contracts depending on the number of years of experience at the highest level or the number of games officiated per season. Although they had ‘full-time’ jobs as referees, Webb (p. 82, 25) revealed that most English referees continued also having part-time jobs because they were contracted to work in refereeing on a seasonal basis, which could not guarantee them financial stability for longer periods.

The second contract type is found in those countries in which all the top-league referees are offered full-time contracts. This applies to Spain, Germany, France, Turkey, Poland, and Hungary. Israel and Denmark offer part-time contracts to their top referees. In Norway and Sweden, only FIFA referees work as full-time referees, whereas only FIFA referees sign part-time contracts in Portugal.

The last contract type is the hybrid type of contract represented by the Netherlands and Belgium. In the Dutch system, FIFA referees have full-time contracts and the remaining top-league referees have part-time contracts. In Belgium, 12 out of 29 referees work as part-time referees; they receive two days of training (physical, mental, and theoretical) at the Belgian Football Centre (29).

Soccer refereeing is a profession not only in Europe but also in other countries that have competitive leagues. Countries outside Europe are not part of this study, but it is interesting to note other soccer leagues around the world that also recognize refereeing as a profession. All the data I could find about referees’ professionalization status worldwide are presented in Table 3.

Table 3 Soccer Refereeing as a Profession in the Rest of the World

In conclusion, refereeing has recently become a profession not only in Europe but also in the other continents. Fifteen European leagues and another 11 worldwide have recognized refereeing as a profession. There had been little change in refereeing for over 100 years, and the professionalization trend arose only in the last decade due to soccer commercialization as well as the involvement of VAR technology. Professionalization and the use of technology are only common in top-league soccer refereeing, whereas the otherleagues are still operating under the old conditions. Therefore, a line of change that divides soccer internally also differentiates refereeing and distinguishes countries.

THE ROMANIAN CASE

SHAMAUTERISM

Romania has a strong tradition in soccer, participating in several World Cups and European Championships and producing players such as Gheorghe Hagi and Cristian Chivu, who are part of contemporary soccer history. Romanian refereeing is equally prominent, having important representatives at the international level. Nicolae Rainea refereed five games at three World Cups and the European Champions Cup final in 1983, while Ion Crăciunescu was the referee of the Champions League Final in 1995. The best generation of Romanian referees is the current one, having Istvan Kovacs and Ovidiu Haţegan as its main representatives. Both of them took part in Euro 2020, which was a great achievement for Romanian refereeing. Romania was the only country with two referees, excepting the big five soccer countries, which always have two referees at the main tournaments. Moreover, Kovacs was the fourth official at the 2022 Qatar World Cup and was appointed by UEFA to referee the Conference League and Europa League finals.

Although Romanian referees have performed well, the referee professionalization process has been slower in Romania than in other countries due to the domestic economic situation and soccer bodies. Many Romanian referees have refereeing as their main focus, and the income from it is significant because they have no other job or a poorer-paying one. Even though they still have an amateur status, the top Romanian referees perceive themselves as professionals with their main focus on refereeing. All these features are typical of the concept of ‘shamateurism’.

No forms of referees’ employment were identified in the top 21–35 European soccer leagues and there is hardly any data about referees’ match fees across Europe due to the National Referee Committees’ lack of transparency. Each soccer league across Europe has its specific arrangements. The same is true regarding Romania, which is 23rd according to the UEFA ranking but is in the Top 20 based on TV rights revenues. Further analysis will determine whether these revenues exert any influence on the referees’ professionalization level. The starting point of the analysis was to identify the Romanian elite referees’ professions using autoethnographic tools, which was easy as I was part of the group and had had long-term professional and personal relationships with them (i.e., 27 referees, comprising 25 men and two women) for over ten years, as presented in Figure 1. The soccer referee population is small, and all referees know one another not only from professional contacts but usually from personal ones as well. Nine out of 27 of the Romanian referees work solely as referees and have no other jobs. Five of them work in soccer for county FAs and have different roles, such as the president, general secretary, or chairman of the county referee committee. Another five work as physical education (PE) teachers. Two of the elite referees work in healthcare, as a physiotherapist and a nurse, respectively. Three of the referees are entrepreneurs who have their own businesses, while the remaining three work as managers in various companies.

Figure 1: The Professions of Romanian Soccer Referees

Dunning (p. 114, 9) defined ‘shamateurism’ as “any kind of ludic activity from which people obtain financial gain,” in his discussion of professional sports. He identified different types of sports that involve relationships between the producers and consumers of the sporting performance and others who offer financial support to the producers. Furthermore, his typology includes legitimate types of sports professionalism, including those types of professionalism in which financial support for athletes is derived from ticket sales and those types of professionalism in which financial support is provided by commercial entities, such as sponsors. Based on Dunning’s conceptualization, the theoretical perspective of shamateurism can be developed and also be applied to refereeing. The new type of shamateurism is defined as a legitimate sports activity that economically benefits its practitioners but is not officially recognized as a profession. Shamateurism in refereeing is characterized by the financial support received by the referees from commercial entities, such as the national FA as concerns match fees and sponsors as concerns equipment or other benefits.

As mentioned in the previous section, the Romanian Superliga started using VAR technology in 2022. It was a big step in the referees’ professionalization process due to the intense preparation required for the implementation. The proposed definition of shamateurism was supported in the interviews, which revealed that five out of six Romanian referees work solely as referees:

If refereeing was my passion, my hobby, ten years ago, now it’s my job, my business. My approach is 100% pro, although in Romania you can’t work as a full-time referee. (Referee 1)
Referee 2 added:

Right now, refereeing is everything. It’s the most important thing in my life. Everything else takes second place compared with my refereeing duties. (Referee 2)

During the interviews, a pattern emerged:

I quit my job when I made the FIFA list. Being an international referee made me more determined than ever to focus more on refereeing. (Referee 3)

At the same time, young referees who have the chance to become international referees also focus on refereeing:

At the moment, refereeing is my number one priority. I am one hundred percent focused on refereeing. (Referee 5)

However, another national league referee prefers to have a regular job because it offers him financial stability in case he is unable to earn enough from refereeing:

Refereeing is like a profession for me because it’s more than a passion, but I still have a full-time job. At the same time, you can’t survive being just a referee, but you can still live without being a referee … I might quit my job if I could be on the FIFA list, but I’m not sure, maybe I would change to a part-time job that wouldn’t pay that well but would provide an income in case there were any critical situations. (Referee 6)

To illustrate the trends in the referees’ professional status, the 2006 World Cup referees’ and 2023–2024 Romanian Superliga referees’ professional status will be compared. Although one might criticize the comparison of the two groups, they share certain features: in both groups, refereeing is not recognized as a profession, and both groups are refereeing at the highest level. Therefore, both groups might be relevant in terms of trends and the future of refereeing from the profession perspective. Nevala (30) was interested in the professions of referees who officiated at the 2006 World Cup in Germany, finding that 18 out of 21 had other full-time jobs: ten of them (48%) were senior white-collar employees (i.e., middle managers and teachers), five (24%) were entrepreneurs or CEOs, three (14%) were regular employees (i.e., a nurse, sales representative, and IT expert), and the last three (14%) were professional referees or worked for a soccer organization at the time. Nevala’s categorization was also applied to Romanian elite referees in order to have comparable data: 14 out of the 27 were full-time referees or involved in county FAs; six were entrepreneurs and CEOs, five were teachers and middle managers, while the last two were a nurse and physiotherapist.

Figure 2 shows that there are insignificant differences in the nurse/physiotherapist and entrepreneur/CEO groups. While the vocational profession of nursing/physiotherapy might be considered to have the same pattern as refereeing, the entrepreneur and top-level management professions might offer sufficient flexibility that refereeing can be done. While teaching and middle management used to be popular professions among referees, it seems that newer generations of referees focus on refereeing or find jobs linked to soccer activities, such as working for county FAs. This pattern reflects the current pace of change in terms of employment and indicates that becoming a professional referee also involves aspects other than purely financial ones. Excepting match fees, the referees need financial stability throughout the year, for times when there are no games or they are not appointed to any. Moreover, insurance in case of injuries as well as retirement pensions are also important for them. Only when all these requirements are met will referee professionalism become a reality. In conclusion, although refereeing is not recognized as a profession in Romania, half of Romanian elite referees are active only in soccer, in what could be easily recognized as shamateurism.

Figure 2: Trends in the Professions of Elite Soccer Referees

MONOPSONY

In becoming a profession, refereeing has had to find its place on the professional sports labor market. Monopsony is a familiar theoretical concept in major professional sports (e.g., baseball, American football, basketball, and ice hockey) in America that could also be applied to soccer refereeing. Robinson (p. 215, 31) defined ‘monopsony’ as a “market with a single buyer.” Most scholars have taken a purely economic approach to monopsony, especially focusing on the clubs’ and leagues’ power over the players’ salaries. This study, however, focuses more on the socio–economic particularities of monopsony.

Soccer refereeing is not yet fully considered a profession in Romania, although a significant number of Romanian elite referees identify themselves with this profession. Thus, this study tries to identify whether the monopsony concept can also be applied to Romanian refereeing. A characteristic typical of monopsony is that the sport leagues and governing bodies are the sole employers of referees for professional games, giving these bodies significant control. In this case, the sport league is the Romanian FA and the governing body is the Romanian Referee Committee. The monopsony’s main features are related to earnings, working conditions, job security, and labor relations between the referees and decision makers (i.e., the Romanian FA and Committee). Each of these features will be treated separately below.

EARNINGS
Referees are socially acknowledged for their sports careers, giving them not only social status but also consistent financial benefits. Table 4 presents the data on match fees in the Superliga and the average net earnings in Romania. Any referee appointed to more than two matches per month earns more than the average net earnings in Romania. This analysis does not take into account match fees from international matches. FIFA referees earn more than other referees due to their international appointments. It is sometimes the case that non-FIFA referees also travel abroad as fourth officials or assistant video assistant referees.

Table 4 – Romanian Superliga Match Fees and Average Earnings in Romania

The income from refereeing guarantees a decent standard of living:
If you’re a top-ten referee in the Romanian league, you might officiate at around 20 games per season. The match fee is around EUR 1200, less accommodation, travel, and tax. Basically, you earn around EUR 900 to 1000 after each game. We should also not forget the new opportunities offered by VAR. So, referees can earn EUR 2500 to 3000 per month if they don’t make mistakes. As you know, each mistake means there’s no game the next week or in the coming weeks. (Referee 3)

The second group of referees comprises maybe ten referees who officiate at 10–15 games per season, plus at games as VAR and fourth officials, which can earn them a monthly income of around EUR 2000. The last group of referees, who officiate at under ten games per season, would earn a monthly income of around EUR 1500:

There are huge financial benefits compared with what other Romanians earn. I think all Superliga referees earn more than EUR 2000 per month, which is a good wage for Romania, with the possible exception of people who work in IT, or entrepreneurs. (Referee 6)

Trifan and Berceanu (32) compiled statistics on referees’ incomes after the regular Superliga season (30 match days in nine months), not taking into account the last ten match days (playoffs and playouts). This only concerned Superliga appointments as a referee, fourth official, and VAR referee, without taking into account international or Liga 2 appointments. It was the first season in which VAR was used in Romania, and 24 referees were appointed to the Superliga matches. As the referees revealed in the interviews, the statistics indicate that the top-ten referees earned EUR 2500–3350 per month, the next seven EUR 2100–2450 per month, and the last seven EUR 1510–1955 per month. This shows that being a referee in the Superliga offers a decent standard of living for a country like Romania.
To be paid by the Romanian FA, soccer referees must be registered as sole proprietors/self-employed. The referees also have to pay taxes and travel expenses, including food and accommodation, from their match fees, which is an unusual practice.

WORKING CONDITIONS
Refereeing at the highest national level is a demanding activity. Being a referee is not just about the match but is also about careful match preparation. The Romanian Referee Committee has certain requirements for its match officials. Preparing for a match has several aspects that should be taken into consideration by top referees. The most important aspect is physical preparation, followed by mental and tactical preparation. All six referees confirmed that they trained every day and that they had to submit monthly reports on their training to a fitness coach who works for the Committee. Moreover, their appointments are influenced by the level of their physical preparation:

I train for around two hours every day. I also focus on recovery after a match, which includes a massage or a sauna. (Referee 3)

Tactical preparation has become increasingly important. The Romanian Referee Committee offers different learning platforms that keep elite referees updated on the most recent information regarding their interpretation of the Laws of the game. FIFA Red and Perception4perfection are two e-learning tools, both of which are very useful for offline referee training; they also help with VAR training by providing the most recent incidents from European soccer. Elite referees also have a platform that features all the matches from the Romanian Superliga. This gives them the opportunity to prepare for their next games in terms of game tactics and players. Refs.sportsmatrix.com is also used by the chair of the Romanian Referee Committee to provide educational video clips from Romanian Superliga games after every match day in order to give the Committee guidelines for upcoming matches.

A soccer match nearly always requires a referee to make three to four decisions every minute, and some of these decisions might be difficult close calls based on ambiguous situations, and referees also have to deal with pressure, both physical and mental. Referees are usually emotionally drained after each game:

A referee is physically exhausted after a game and very tired mentally. On the pitch, they have to control 22 personalities [i.e., players], plus coaches, and are in charge of everything that’s going on, including pressure from the fans, coaches, and the media. When you finally get home, you’re really worn out. So, in order to recover mentally, it’s important to go for a walk or go and see a movie. Isolated and quiet places help me to relax. Psychological recovery is very important for me because a massage may take care of your physical needs, but mental recovery is essential because refereeing requires a huge mental commitment. (Referee 4)

As previously mentioned, the referees pay their own travel and accommodation expenses. It seems that Romanian referees are the only referees in Europe who have to pay such expenses themselves. In most other European countries, it is standard practice for these expenses to be paid by the clubs through the FAs. All Superliga games are televised, the first game of the match day being on Friday, while the last game is on Monday, with the matches usually kicking off at either 19.00 or 21.00. The amount of time spent traveling and the poor infrastructure create problems for referees:

We have to travel long distances to matches and we can’t always travel by plane. In terms of holding down a job, you have to find one where people understand your passion for refereeing, or you must run your own business. This means we’re always in a hurry after matches, driving all night to get home or go to work. (Referee 1)

Figure 3 shows Romanian Superliga soccer clubs and the geographical distribution of referees. As can be noted, the Bucharest area has the most clubs (four) and referees (ten). This is followed by Craiova, with two clubs and three referees. Cluj-Napoca also has two clubs, but only one referee. Four towns each have one club and one referee: Arad, Galaţi, Ploieşti, and Sfântu-Gheorghe. There are also towns that only have referees: two each in Satu-Mare, Piteşti, and Râmnicu-Vâlcea and one each in Braşov and Târgu-Mureş. Finally, Botoșani, Iaşi, Sibiu, and Constanţa have clubs but no referees.

Figure 3: Superliga Clubs and Referees, 2023–2024 Season: Geographical Distribution

The analysis is important from the appointment perspective. The rules of the Romanian Referee Committee allow referees from Bucharest to officiate at matches involving clubs from Bucharest even if they are a home or an away team, whereas the remaining referees cannot officiate at matches involving clubs from their hometown. Moreover, the rules of the Romanian Referee Committee recommend that the whole referee team should be accommodated in the same hotel before matches and that they should not leave a city or town if a match finishes after 23.00.

Although these are the rules, it is common for referees to go directly to a stadium if it is near their hometown, especially when they are a fourth official or VAR. Most referees leave directly after a match, regardless of whether they live in the same city or town or have to travel by car for several hours. The referees act in this way because they are responsible for booking and paying for the hotel accommodation, which is sometimes challenging and time consuming. The Romanian FA and the Referee Committee are responsible for nothing in terms of covering these expenses. Obviously, referees from Bucharest, Ploieşti, and Piteşti have an advantage over other referees from an economic perspective as long as they do not spend too much on food and accommodation if their appointments are near their hometown. The most disadvantaged referees are from Satu-Mare, Oradea, Arad, and Galaţi because they have to pay higher travel and accommodation expenses. In conclusion, referees from southern Romania are economically advantaged by the actual Committee rules.

LABOR RELATIONS BETWEEN REFEREES AND GOVERNING BODIES

Soccer refereeing is characterized by two aspects that are the most important for anyone involved in the game:

Let’s not waste time talking about it. In refereeing, the only things that matter are appointments and promotions. This is all we’re interested in and nothing else matters. (Referee 2)

This study focuses on the top league only, where the only thing worth discussing is appointments. A referee’s income is determined by the appointments made by the Romanian Referee Committee. There used to be clear rules about the appointments, but discretionary rules have recently been introduced that have created conflict and confusion among referees:

I expect all of us to be treated equally. There were times when I had a good game but I wasn’t offered any appointments for the next five consecutive match days, whereas other referees who had made clear mistakes were appointed on the next match day. We also need predictability, to know when we’re going to be appointed or how many match days we’re going to miss if we make a mistake. Some of us also have other jobs and need to know, or maybe want to take our families on holiday. (Referee 4)

There was a timid attempt to establish a referee union over ten years ago, but the union was not officially recognized by the Romanian FA and Referee Committee. These bodies continuously discouraged the union, as a powerful one would decrease their monopsonic power over referees (33). Moreover, no referee wanted to assume the leadership role because it could affect his career, since the referees were used to acting on their own behalf rather than as part of a collective. Nowadays, Romanian referees are not represented by any union and have no representative in the Romanian Referee Committee to advocate for their rights. Consequently, the decisions are influenced by the subjectivity of the Referee Committee.

JOB SECURITY

By far the most controversial subject for referees was medical emergencies that stop them from officiating at matches. All the interviewed referees agreed that there was only one reason they would give up refereeing:

At the moment, there’s nothing that would make me give up refereeing, unless I got ill. I am a Superliga referee, and I enjoy every single moment on the pitch whatever I’m doing: training or refereeing. (Referee 5)

Recently, five referees could not referee for extended periods for health reasons. In these situations, the referees were responsible for their own circumstances without any financial support from the soccer bodies, although in two situations the injuries occurred during the fitness test organized by the Referee Committee. In 2017, FIFA referee Radu Petrescu had brain surgery and could not officiate for a whole season (34). In 2019, Florin Marcu ruptured his Achilles tendon during a fitness test in which I also took part. Consequently, he could not officiate for a whole season. Although he returned to the pitch, he retired in 2021 at the age of 44, even though there is no longer any age limit in Romanian refereeing. In 2021, I witnessed another injury when Cătălin Buşi suffered the same Achilles injury in the same circumstances and could not officiate for a whole season (35). In March 2022, Ovidiu Haţegan, the best Romanian FIFA referee at the time and a candidate for the 2022 Qatar World Cup, suffered a heart attack and had heart surgery (36). He returned to the pitch after a season although he was appointed to the Superliga as a VAR after six months. The last case concerns Sorin Costreie, who was also involved in the UEFA CORE program and suffered a back injury in the summer of 2022. He was off the pitch for six months after having an operation and was only appointed as a VAR. In the summer of 2023, he had a relapse and had another operation, which might affect his presence on the pitch, although he was again appointed as a VAR referee (37).

The biggest issue we have to face is that there’s no financial support for us as referees if we get sick or are injured. If you only work as a referee and you need brain or back surgery, you’re on your own, nobody cares about you and, from being a top referee, you end up in dire straits without any income. (Referee 1)

Referee 6 continued:
There’s no stability in refereeing. If I happened to return home after the interview and fell down the stairs and broke my neck, my refereeing days would be over. Most types of work are more stable than refereeing and have a certain degree of predictability. (Referee 6)

Thus, health is one the most important considerations for referees, and most referees are concerned about getting injured or becoming sick and the financial consequences of their inability to officiate.

In conclusion, the Romanian FA and Referee Committee have monopsony power over referees in that the referees have almost no influence. There is no referee union or representative to advocate for their rights. No negotiations regarding the match fees take place, and the referees are merely informed if there are any changes. Moreover, promotions to the Elite group or to the FIFA list are made solely by the Referee Committee without clear and transparent criteria, and the Committee members retain full power. No investment in training is offered to referees, the full responsibility being on referees.

CONCLUSIONS

THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS

This study extends our knowledge of the professionalization of European football refereeing, demonstrating that this incremental process has been influenced by several factors. The technological development in soccer of VAR, the increased number of matches per season, and the high level of commercialization have all impacted referees. This study proves that there is a link between the league revenues and the income from selling TV rights. The leagues with lower economic potential cannot offer contracts to the referees, even if they apply a professional approach. The financial rewards offer them a good standard of living, even though refereeing is an unpredictable activity. Overall, refereeing in countries like Romania is characterized by shamateurism.

Throughout this analysis, the professionalization of top-level referees has been treated as an incremental process consisting of three stages, i.e., serious leisure, shamateurism, and professionalism, as presented in Figure 4. Refereeing had been a serious leisure activity until the 1990s, when referees had become highly respected and started forming a subculture in soccer. Refereeing was characterized by shamateurism until the 2010s, because referees continued working in their side jobs but had become top athletes as the physical demands of refereeing mounted ever higher. In the last decade, refereeing has become a profession, and an increasing number of soccer bodies are offering contracts, although each country has its own particular approach.

Figure 4: Professionalization Process in European Soccer Refereeing

The soccer leagues with low revenues and insignificant TV rights contracts can hardly offer career opportunities to referees. Refereeing is a serious leisure activity for the referees in these leagues, the main reasons for their involvement in the game relating to social motivations and love for the game, with the financial rewards being less significant.

One contribution of this study is that it has developed the shamateurism concept in the soccer refereeing context. The Romanian league does not offer any formal employment terms even to its elite referees and does not officially recognize refereeing as a profession. TV rights revenues are closely connected to refereeing development, so that Romanian referees could have a good standard of living based solely on match fees. After the interviews, I was able to verify that the responses of the four experienced referees were direct and that they were not afraid to give straight answers to critical questions. There could be two reasons for this: first, they are part of an elite group and have to deal with similar situations and, second, they have a certain status and are ready to talk openly about the ‘dark’ side of elite refereeing. However, the responses of the two ‘talents’ (i.e., less experienced referees with good potential to reach the FIFA list) to critical questions were ‘politically correct’ because they were concerned that honest responses could have negative consequences if any decision maker were to find out, which is a typical reaction in a monopsony. Consequently, a significant number of Romanian elite referees prefer to focus only on refereeing or to be involved in regional associations and not to have a regular refereeing job. A limitation of this study is its lack of data from other countries about match fees, due to the lack of transparency of national FAs, to compare with Romanian fees.

The most profitable European soccer leagues have recognized refereeing as a profession. There are 26 countries worldwide, 15 being in Europe, that provide formal employment to their referees. The professionalization of referees has taken an irreversible path toward elite soccer refereeing being recognized as a profession. A clear distinction should be made between elite and grassroots refereeing, which should retain its amateur status. The introduction of VAR is only the starting point of technological involvement in elite soccer, and the relationship between soccer refereeing and technology will become increasingly close. Gottschalk et al. (38) have studied the possible implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in soccer refereeing, and its implications. The rapid development of AI suggests that it would be integrated into VAR technology, but there is always a ‘grey area’ in the Laws of the Game that require human decision making and interpretation that cannot be replaced by technology, an aspect that should not be neglected (39). There is a need for further research that takes into account the fact that FIFA and UEFA are aiming to achieve consistency in the decisions made by referees. Furthermore, I suggest that future research into soccer refereeing should focus on national committees’ policies and the profiles of referees from their own perspectives.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS IN SPORT – The Romanian Case

Despite the different professionalization stages and employment models around Europe, soccer refereeing as a profession deserves a place on the sport labor market. In connection with this, Romanian soccer refereeing was analyzed, and it was concluded that refereeing is characterized by monopsony. To address the Romanian FA’s monopsonic position, several steps should be taken by the Romanian Referee Committee. The first step would be for referees to have a representative on the Committee who would work in the interests of their colleagues. Second, there is a need to establish a referee union that would represent the interests of referees, negotiating with soccer bodies for better conditions for all Romanian referees, regardless of the league.

There should be a clear distinction between Superliga referees and national referees. Most European National FAs complain about the lack of referees at the grassroots level. There is a clear need for strategies to attract young people to refereeing. The Romanian FA through the Romanian Referee Committee needs to provide adequate support for the national referees from Liga 2 and Liga 3. Psychological and medical (nutritional) support should be provided to young referees in order to help them develop in a performance environment. The implementation of VAR has created additional positions for referees, but they receive very little personalized feedback. Most European countries have specialized observers for VAR referees who give feedback after each match, but this is not the case in Romania. At the same time, there is a clear need to train accredited VAR referees. Referees learn by doing and through their ability to learn from experienced VAR referees. At the moment, refereeing in Romania is an individual activity with no clear guidelines. The Romanian Referee Committee also needs to be more transparent and inform all referees about its decisions and strategies. There is currently no communication between the Committee and referees, who learn about all relevant decisions through informal channels, creating numerous rumors and conflicts among them.

The transition to professional refereeing in Romania remains a complex challenge due to structural inertia and financial considerations. While refereeing provides substantial income for elite referees, the lack of contractual recognition prevents long-term stability. Future reforms should include structured contracts, financial protections, and referee unions to advocate for fair employment conditions. Due to the international elite soccer refereeing context, my interpretation is that sooner or later, Romanian elite referees will be invited to sign their first contracts and the refereeing activity will be recognized as an profession.

REFERENCES

Colwell S., (2000), The ‘Letter’ and the ‘Spirit’: Football Laws and Refereeing in the Twenty-First Century. Soccer & Society 1 (1), 201–217. DOI:10.1080/14660970008721259

Webb T., Dicks M, Thelwell R., van der Kamp J. & Rix-Lievre G., (2020) An analysis of soccer referee experiences in France and the Netherlands: Abuse, conflict, and level of support, Sport Management Review, 23:1, 52–65, DOI: 10.1016/ j.smr.2019.03.003

Pina J., Passos A., Araujo D & Maynard T., (2018), Football refereeing: An integrative review, Psychology of Sport and Exercise (35), 10–26

Vasilica I., Silva R., Costa P., Figuieira B., Vaz L., (2022) Football refereeing: a systematic review and literature mapping, Journal of Physical Education and Sport, Vol. 22 (2), 388–401, DOI:10.7752/jpes.2022.02049

Antonie A., (2022), Career stages in Romanian football refereeing – the path from referee course to the FIFA badge, Journal of Physical Education and Sport, Vol. 22 (7), 1675–1684

Loghmani M., Cuskelly G., & Webb T., (2021) Examining the career dynamics of elite football referees: a unique identification profile, Sport Management Review, Vol. 24, No. 3, 517–542.

Pina J., Passos A. M., Carvalho H & Maynard T.M. (2019), To be or not to be an excellent football referee: different experts’ viewpoints, Journal of Sport Sciences, 37:6, 692–700, DOI: 10.1080/02640414.2018.1522940

Mendes S., Oliveira E.M., Monteiro D & Travassos B., (2021) The Portuguese referee performance model, International Journal of Sport Science & Coaching, Vol. 16(5), 1117–1125.

Loghmani M., Taylor T. & Ramzaninejad R., (2017) Job characteristics and psychological states of football referees: implications for job enrichment, Managing Sport and Leisure, 22:5, 342–357, DOI: 10.1080/23750472.2018.1426488

Dunning E., (1999), Sport Matters: sociological studies of sport, violence and civilization, Routledge, London

Stebbins A.R., (2005) Inclination to Participate in Organized Serious Leisure: An Exploration of the Role of Costs, Rewards, and Lifestyle, Leisure, vol 29

Rosen S. & Sanderson A., (2001), Labour Markets in Professional Sports, The Economic Journal, 111, F47-F68

Anderson L., (2006). Analytic Autoethnography, Journal of Contemporary Ethnography, 35(4), 373–395.

Hughes S. & Pennington J., (2017), Autoethnography: Process, Product, and Possibility for Critical Social Research, Sage Publication Inc.,

Clandinin D.J., (2013), Engaging in narrative inquiry, Routledge, New York

Ryba T., Ronkainen N. & Selänne H., (2015) Elite athletic career as a context for life design, Journal of Vocational Behavior, 88, 47–55.

Merriam S. & Tisdell E., (2016), Qualitative research: A guide to design and implementation (4th ed.), Jossey-Bass.

Samuel R.D., Galily Y., Filho E., & Tenenbaum G., (2020), Implementation of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) as a Career Change-Event: The Israeli Premier League Case Study, Frontiers in Psychology, DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.564855

Union of European Football Association, (2024), The European Club Finance and Investment Landscape, https://cdn.vev.design/private/aTCxVXgBbmVvmw45NvpIseApVuy2/1joo9t-uefa-benchmarking-ecfil-report-2024.pdf

Johansen B. T., (2015) Reasons for officiating soccer: the role of passion-based motivations among Norwegian elite and non-elite referees, Movement & Sport Sciences, DOI:10.1051/sm/2014012

Voight M., (2009), Sources of stress and coping strategies of US Soccer officials, Stress and Health, 25: 91–101, DOI: 10.1002/smi.1231

Karakus S., Caglayan H.S., & Pepe H., (2011) Evaluation of the factors that affect performances of active football referees in Turkey, African Journal of Business Management, Vol. 5(20), 8215–8223, DOI: 10.5897/AJBM11.621

Gillue G.S., Laloux Y.R., Alvarez M.T., Feliu J.C., (2018), Sources of Stress Inside and Outside of the Match in Football Referees, Apunts. Education Fisica y Deportes, no. 132, 2, 22 –31.

Rullang C., Emrich E., & Pierdzioch C. (2017) Why do referees end their careers and which factors determine the duration of a referee’s career?, Current Issues in Sport Science, 2:006, doi:10.15203/CISS_2017.006

Choi H. & Chiu W., (2017), Influence of perceived organizational support, job satisfaction, and career commitment of football referees’ turnover intention, Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 17 (3), 955–959

Webb T., (2017), Elite Soccer Referees: Officiating in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A, Routledge, London

Abadi H.A., Ayentimi D.T., & Coetzer A., (2020), The meaning and essential nature of a profession: a multi-perspective approach, Labour & Industry, 30:1, 85-96, DOI: 10.1080/10301763.2020.1723784

Shen Y., Demel B., Unite J., Briscoe J.P., Hall D.T., Chudzikowski K., Mayrhofer W., Abdul-Ghani R., Milikic B.B., Colorado O., Fei Z., Heras M.L., Ogliastri E., Pazy A., Poon J.M.L., Shefer D., Taniguchi M. & Zikic J., (2015) Career success across 11 countries: implications for international human resources management, The International Journal of Human Resources Management, Vol. 26, No. 13, 1753–1778

Schnyder U. & Hossner E-J., (2016), Psychological issues in football officiating: An interview study with top-level referees, Current Issues in Sport Sciences, (1)

Royal Belgium Football Association, (2023), Belgian referee list. https://www.rbfa.be/en/participate/referees/our-referees/semi-pros

Nevala A., (2007), “Mistä avaruudesta heidät on hankittu?”. Saksan MM-turnauksen erotuomarien valikoiminen ja tausta. (In English: “From what space do they come from?” Selection and background of the referees in World Cup 2006 in Germany). In H. Itkonen & A. Nevala (Eds.) Kuningaspelin kentät. Jalkapalloilu paikallisena ja globaalina ilmiönä (in English: Playing fields of the King of Games. Football as a local and global game.) Gaudeamus, Helsinki University Press, 195–209.

Robinson J., (1969), The economics of imperfect competition, 2nd ed. London, Macmillan

Trifan A. & Berceanu G., (2023) How much do Superliga referees earn? How Vassaras share €0.5 million between referees and the challenging economic analysis of Romanian refereeing! The controversial Barsan, Chivulete and Popa are the top of the list https://www.prosport.ro/fotbal-intern/cat-castiga-arbitrii-din-superliga-cum-imparte-kyros-vassaras-o-jumatate-de-milion-de-euro-intre-centrali-si-radiografia-provocatoare-a-banilor-din-arbitrajul-romanesc-controversatii-birsan-chivule-19615110#google_vignette

Teodorescu L., (2012), The referees can go on strike, https://www.national.ro/sport/arbitrii-au-dreptul-la-greva-123031.html/

Dobrescu P., (2017), Radu Petrescu suffered a brain surgery. The FIFA referee is fighting for his life, https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/arbitrul-radu-petrescu-fost-operat-pe-creier-1945228

Arena Vâlceană, (2021), Cătălin Buşi had terrible bad luck at Elite Referees’ fitness test https://arenavalceana.ro/catalin-busi-ghinion-teribil-la-testele-arbitrilor-de-liga/

Crăiţoiu A., (2022), Difficult moments for Ovidiu Haţegan. He suffered an heart attack and was urgently operated at Timişoara, https://www.gsp.ro/fotbal/liga-1/ovidiu-hategan-a-suferit-un-infarct-659048.html

Digisport, (2025), Kyros Vassaras’s decision regarding VAR referee after FCSB – Dinamo match’s scandal, https://www.digisport.ro/fotbal/liga-1/decizia-luata-de-kyros-vassaras-in-cazul-arbitrului-de-la-var-dupa-scandalul-din-fcsb-dinamo-3452137

Gottschalk C, Tewes S, Niestroj B., (2020), The Innovation of Refereeing in Football through AI, International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Vol.6(2), 35–54

George Minoso2025-05-02T11:00:25-05:00June 20th, 2025|Contemporary Sports Issues, Sport Education|Comments Off

Efficacy of 12-Week Handgrip Strength Training Program Amongst Older Adults: A Pilot Study

Author’s: Abbey Keller¹, David Cason¹, Shannon Hardy², Madison Norris², Angila Berni¹, Michel Heijnen¹, Alexander McDaniel¹, Lindsey Schroeder¹, Tiago Barriera³, Wayland Tseh¹

¹School of Health and Applied Human Sciences, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina, United States of America

²Carolina Bay at Autumn Hall, 630 Carolina Bay Drive., Wilmington, North Carolina, United States of America

³ School of Education, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America

Corresponding Author:

Lindsey H. Schroeder, Ed.D., LAT, ATC, CES

University of North Carolina Wilmington
School of Health & Applied Human Sciences

601 South College Road
Wilmington, NC 28403-5956
O: (910) 962-7188

F: (910) 962-7073

ABSTRACT

Handgrip strength is indicative of overall health and longevity. The significance of a strong grip increases with age as it relates to lower mortality rates and improved functional capacity.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a 12-week handgrip strength training program amongst older adults. METHODS: A total of 12 participants (mean age = 82.7 ± 4.8 years; height = 160.7 ± 7.4 cm; body mass = 64.2 ± 13.9 kg; 2 males; 10 females) completed the 12-week exercise intervention. The participants engaged in a twice-weekly, 45-minute suspension training regimen that incorporated a range of exercises targeting upper body strength and stability. Handgrip strength was assessed via a handgrip dynamometer at baseline and post-intervention. A paired samples t-test was employed to assess differences between pre-and post-intervention grip strength. A Bonferroni correction was applied to mitigate the risk of Type I error due to multiple comparisons, setting the adjusted alpha level at p = 0.025. Effect sizes were calculated using Cohen’s d to assess the practical significance of the findings. RESULTS: The analysis revealed a statistically significant improvement in right-handgrip strength, with values increasing from 21.5 ± 1.3 kg in Week 1 to 23.0 ± 1.4 kg in Week 12 (p = 0.006). No significant improvement was observed in left-handgrip strength (20.2 ± 1.2 kg to 21.1 ± 1.5 kg; p = 0.12). The right handgrip strength demonstrated a large effect (d = 0.99), whereas the left handgrip strength exhibited a moderate effect (d = 0.48). CONCLUSION: Findings from this study suggest that the 12-week suspension training and handgrip strength exercise regimen was both statistically and practically effective in increasing HGS in older adults. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Allied healthcare professionals should educate older adults on the importance of HGS and incorporate targeted exercises into their regimens to mitigate age-related functional decline and promote better outcomes.

KEYWORDS: Suspension Training, Longevity, Handgrip Strength

INTRODUCTION

By the year 2050, the global population of older adults is projected to reach 2.1 billion (10). As this demographic shift occurs, various risks associated with aging, including falls, cognitive decline, and impaired longevity and quality of life, become increasingly concerning (8, 14, 45). A crucial yet frequently underappreciated factor contributing to falls and other age-related risks is diminished handgrip strength (HGS), which impairs an individual’s capacity to stabilize themselves and prevent injuries (16, 19). Research suggests that HGS is representative of overall body strength (1). Handgrip strength is defined as the maximum amount of force the hand generates when gripping an object. Thresholds for HGS required to perform functional tasks in older adults are estimated at greater than 18.5 kg for females and 28.5 kg for males (2). Beyond serving as a measure of physical strength, HGS is also a strong predictor of longevity and overall quality of life, making it especially relevant in the context of aging (1). Comprehending the relationship between HGS and other fitness components is essential for devising effective strategies to preserve functional independence and enhance quality of life, particularly as the global population experiences unprecedented aging trends.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), falls represent the leading cause of mortality among individuals aged 65 years and older. Annually, approximately 36 million older adults experience falls, with 32,000 cases resulting in fatal outcomes (4). Falls impact the quality of life by jeopardizing health, mobility, and independence. Although multiple factors influence fall risk, prioritizing interventions to improve HGS may offer a practical and impactful approach to reducing the incidence of falls among older adults (24).

In 2016, Szulc and colleagues examined 890 men aged 50 and older, assessing appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM), physical function, and HGS (42). Over a 5-year follow-up period, 813 participants aged 60 and above were monitored, of whom 144 experienced multiple falls. Findings from this research investigation revealed that those who sustained Grade 2 or Grade 3 vertebral fractures and multiple fractures had reduced HGS, decreased physical function, and an increased risk of multiple falls (42).

The number of global dementia cases is expected to almost triple from 57.4 million cases in 2019 to 152.8 million in 2050 (17). That said, aging significantly elevates the risk of cognitive decline, potentially leading to a loss of independence and other adverse outcomes. Although many factors are involved in preventing and treating cognitive decline and related illnesses, HGS may play a key role in determining who is at risk for these diseases. Physical impairments, such as diminished HGS, can interact with other factors to amplify the risk of age-related cognitive decline (7, 18). Consequently, investigating the relationship between HGS and cognitive function is essential for addressing the challenges of an aging global population.

In 2022, Orchard et al. evaluated both gait speed and HGS as predictors of cognitive decline and dementia (36). The participants were community-dwelling older adults who were cognitively intact at the onset of the study. Researchers assessed each participant’s 3-meter walk time and measured their HGS. A 4.7-year median follow-up was used to gather data on the prevalence of cognitive decline and dementia among participants. Slower walking gait and low HGS were independently related to an increased incident risk of dementia and cognitive decline. When these variables were combined, slow walking gait and low HGS were associated with a 79% increase in the risk of dementia development and a 43% increased risk of cognitive decline (36).

Precursory research has revealed that a culmination of exercise methods, including resistance training, Vitality Acupunch training program, multi-modal training, and suspension training (ST), can impact the HGS of older adults (2, 3, 10, 21, 23, 25, 26, 44). Among these, ST programs, such as total resistance exercise (TRX), stand out as accessible and adaptable methods. Due to the nature of ST, users possess the unique opportunity to train in several different facets of fitness at differing scalable resistances in a single bout of exercise (27). The suspension training system enables individuals to perform strength exercises adapted to their unique capabilities, offering progressive resistance to facilitate individualized strength development (15, 27).

In 2018, Campa, Silva, and Toselli conducted a study to determine the effects of a 12-week ST intervention on the phase angle and HGS of female older adults. Thirty older women were randomly assigned to either a control or training group. Participants in the control group continued their usual activities throughout the study, while those in the training group underwent a 12-week ST program. Both groups were assessed on various fitness parameters, including HGS. At the conclusion of the study, researchers found that ST promoted improvements in HGS in older women (3).

In 2022, Pierle and associates conducted a study to examine the efficacy of a 6-week ST program on a sample of 11 older individuals (37). The fitness parameters of interest were functional reach, overall balance, body fat, body mass, and HGS. While this study demonstrated improvements in functional reach and overall balance, body fat, body mass, and HGS showed no significant changes. These findings suggest that ST may be an effective exercise modality for enhancing certain aspects of fitness in older adults. However, further investigation is crucial to understand its impact on HGS better and determine whether ST can optimize strength outcomes in this population (37).

Against this backdrop, given the dearth of research examining the effects of ST protocols on HGS and the relationship between HGS and fall prevention, further investigation is imperative to elucidate the potential benefits of ST, especially amongst the older adult population. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study is to fill this critical gap by evaluating the efficacy of a 12-week ST and HGS exercise program in enhancing handgrip strength in this population. The apriori hypothesis posits that significant improvements in HGS will be observed between pre- and post-assessment measurements, underscoring the potential of ST and HGS as a targeted intervention to improve strength and reduce fall risk among older adults.

METHODS

Participants

Prior to participating in this study, participants were screened using inclusionary and exclusionary criteria. The inclusion requirements included participants who currently exercise, are older than 55 years of age, and are independent of assistive walking devices (e.g., walker, rollator, wheelchair, etc.). The exclusionary criteria included participants not having a medical release form on record, being overwhelmed by the exercise routine, specifically, mild increases in heart rate and blood pressure during exercise, or possessing a pacemaker or other internally implanted device. All participants, therefore, were required to have a medical release to participate. This study was approved by the university’s institutional review board and adhered to the practice of ethical research standards.

All participants were recruited from a local retirement community and were required to report to the Wellness Center onsite for 24 sessions over 12 weeks. Flyers were posted, and those interested were instructed to sign up for an appointment with the principal investigator (PI) to complete the protocol requirements. Participants were encouraged to contact the PI or co-PI by phone or email if any question(s) arose or if any of the requirements remained unclear.

Upon arrival for the pre-assessment session, participants read/signed/dated an informed consent form approved by the University’s Institutional Review Board (IRB) for human subject use (IRB#: H24-0565). Ten females and 2 males (Age = 82.7 ± 4.8 years; Height = 160.7 ± 7.4 cm; Body Mass = 64.2 ± 13.9 kg), completed the 12-week exercise intervention.

Protocol

Once the informed consent was obtained, pre-assessment data was collected. All participants were instructed to remove footwear, socks, and stockings before stepping onto the scale. Height (cm) and body mass (kg) were assessed via Seca 217 Mobile Stadiometer (Model Number 2171821009, USA). The participant’s height and body mass results were displayed and recorded via a data collection sheet. Grip strength was assessed via the Smedley Creative Health Products III Analog Grip Strength Dynamometer (T.K.K. 5001, Japan). Participants were instructed to maintain the standard bipedal position during the entire test with the arm in complete extension and to avoid touching any part of the body with the handgrip dynamometer except the hand being measured. Participants comfortably grasped the handgrip dynamometer and were encouraged to exert maximal grip.

Three trials, with brief pauses, were allowed for each hand alternately. The sum of the highest left and right values was recorded on the data collection sheet. The PI was the lead exercise instructor of the 12-week exercise intervention. The PI took attendance, organized, and provided corrective feedback/instructions during each exercise session. A team of fitness instructors at the retirement community and a research assistant also led these classes by providing feedback to participants and keeping each session organized. The exercise intervention required participants to attend two sessions per week for 12 weeks, with each class being 45 minutes. Attendance was recorded at the start of each class to keep track of the adherence rate. Every session consisted of seven strength training exercises in a circuit style (Table 1), followed by a grip strength series consisting of four exercises (Table 2).

Strength training exercises were advanced every 4 weeks, specifically, progressing from 30-second intervals (first micro-cycle) to 35 seconds (second micro-cycle) to 40 seconds (final micro-cycle). The Farmer’s Carry exercise specifically intensified each micro-cycle, starting with holding one dumbbell each set, then holding one dumbbell each set vertically upright by the head of the weight, and finally holding the head of a dumbbell in each hand. The grip strength series progressed throughout the 12-week intervention, starting with one set of each exercise for 15 seconds per hand in the first 4 weeks and followed by 8 weeks of performing each exercise for two sets of 15 seconds. Each session started with a 5-minute warm-up, followed by 35 minutes of exercise, and concluded with a 5-minute cooldown. The 12-week exercise training intervention took place as a group fitness class in the fitness center of a local retirement community, giving participants the advantage of working with partners for each exercise, increasing accountability and motivation. The TRX suspension training (ST) allowed users to exercise in a customizable and scalable capacity that fits their personal specifications, comfort, and intensity levels (27). Additionally, the PI used a timed-circuit style class versus measuring each exercise based on repetition, allowing participants to perform at their own intensified pace.

Statistical Analysis

A paired samples t-test was employed to assess differences between pre-and post-intervention grip strength. To mitigate the risk of Type I error due to multiple comparisons, a Bonferroni correction was applied, setting the adjusted alpha level at p = 0.025. Effect sizes were calculated using Cohen’s d to assess the practical significance of the findings.

RESULTS

The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a 12-week exercise intervention on handgrip strength (HGS) in a population of community-dwelling older adults. Sixteen participants were initially recruited; however, four withdrew during the study, resulting in a final sample size of 12 participants (Age = 82.7 ± 4.8 years; Height = 160.7 ± 7.4 cm; Body Mass = 64.2 ± 13.9 kg; 2 males and ten females). Attendance was monitored at each session, yielding an average adherence rate of 83%. The adherence rate remained consistent throughout this study.

A paired-sample t-test was conducted to assess differences between pre- and post-intervention measurements. A Bonferroni correction was applied to mitigate the risk of Type I errors due to multiple comparisons, resulting in an adjusted alpha level of p = 0.025. Effect sizes were quantified using Cohen’s d, with thresholds of 0.2, 0.5, and >0.8 representing small, medium, and large effects, respectively.

The analysis revealed a statistically significant improvement in right-hand grip strength, which increased from 21.5 ± 1.3 kg at baseline (Week 1) to 23.0 ± 1.4 kg post-intervention (Week 12, p = 0.006). In contrast, no statistical improvement was observed for left-hand grip strength (20.2 ± 1.2 kg to 21.1 ± 1.5 kg, p = 0.12). The effect size for right-hand grip strength was large (d = 0.99), whereas the left-hand grip strength demonstrated a moderate effect (d = 0.48). Detailed results are presented in Table 3.

DISCUSSION

Limited research exists with respect to investigating sustained strength training (ST) programs and handgrip strength (HGS) in older adults (12, 23). Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of a 12-week ST and HGS exercise program in a community-dwelling older adult population. The researchers hypothesized a statistically significant improvement in HGS between pre- and post-assessment data. At the conclusion of the 12-week ST and HGS exercise program, right-HGS improved significantly and demonstrated a large effect size, while the left hand showed a moderate but non-significant change. These findings suggest that a 12-week suspension training exercise program may enhance grip strength and potentially improve functional independence and reduce fall risk in older adults. However, additional research is needed to fully understand these effects and any differences between dominant and non-dominant hands.

In 2018, a research study was conducted by Campa and colleagues in which the participants were divided into two groups: 1) 12-week ST exercise group and 2) control group that maintained their usual daily activity (3). Both groups of participants underwent pre-and post-tests, evaluating several fitness components, including HGS. Findings from the current research study and the study by Campa et al. (3) revealed both shared and contrasting results in how structured exercise interventions affect HGS in older adults. More precisely, both studies reported statistically significant HGS improvements following their 12-week interventions. The current research study observed an increase in right-hand grip strength from 21.5 ± 1.3 kg to 23.0 ± 1.4 kg, equating to an approximate 7.0% improvement. Similarly, Campa et al. (3) reported an increase in dominant-hand HGS from 38.2 ± 9.7 kg to 40.1 ± 9.0 kg, reflecting a significant 4.97% improvement. Both findings confirm the efficacy of a 12-week exercise program in promoting upper-body strength among older adults. Notably, both studies targeted older adults, with the current study involving a mixed-gender cohort (mean age 82.7 years) and Campa et al. (3) focusing on men with a mean age of 67.4 years. Despite this approximate 15-year age difference, the consistency in outcomes underscores the adaptability of exercise interventions across different subsets of older adults. Both research studies spanned 12 weeks, suggesting that this time frame is sufficient to elicit measurable improvements in muscular strength. Given these similarities, improvements in HGS in both studies align with broader health and functional benefits. Because HGS is a well-established predictor of overall physical health (29, 35), these findings highlight the role of resistance-based interventions in enhancing the quality of life and functional independence among older adults.

While both studies displayed shared findings, it was noted that the baseline mean HGS of the current study was strikingly lower (21.5 ± 1.3 kg) compared to Campa et al.’s (3) sample group (38.2 ± 9.7 kg). This discrepancy may be due to the age difference of about 15 years, which more than likely contributed to variations in baseline physical fitness and adaptive capacity. Older adults often experience diminished neuromuscular responsiveness and muscle plasticity (7, 32).

To summarize, the current research study and Campa et al.’s (3) study demonstrate significant improvements in HGS following 12-week exercise programs, reinforcing the utility of structured ST in mitigating age-related strength decline. Both studies provide compelling evidence that targeted interventions can yield functional strength gains in older populations regardless of modality. However, the differences in participant demographics highlight the influence of baseline fitness levels and age on HGS outcomes.

The results from a study by Gaedtke and Morat (16) also revealed results like those of the current study. Eleven older adults (Mean Age = 66.0 ± 4.0 yrs) participated in a 12-week TRX-OldAge training program, composed of seven exercises progressing through multiple stages of difficulty. The intervention method utilized TRX equipment, shared by Gaedtke and Morat (16) and the current study. Both studies also had similar sample sizes and durations, spanning 12 weeks. The results displayed within Gaedtke and Morat’s (16) research study share thematic similarities with the current research in demonstrating improvements in HGS. Both studies emphasize the potential of targeted programs to enhance functional strength, which is critical for maintaining independence and reducing the risk of falls in aging populations. Specifically, the current research reported a 7.0% increase in right-hand grip strength, showcasing the tangible benefits of a 12-week intervention. Similarly, participants in Gaedtke and Morat’s (16) study subjectively reported strength gains as the most notable improvement following the TRX-OldAge program. However, Gaedtke and Morat (16) did not provide quantifiable pre- and post-assessment metrics for HGS, which limits direct comparisons. While participant feedback highlights strength improvements, the lack of quantifiable data undermines the ability to assess the efficacy of the intervention, specifically on grip strength. This limitation in Gaedtke and Morat’s (16) study underscores the importance of incorporating quantifiable assessments in future investigations to validate self-reported outcomes and to draw more substantial comparisons with similar studies. Regardless, given the vast similarities between the two research studies, it is evident that a TRX-related exercise regime conducted for 12 weeks does enhance muscular strength in older individuals.

In a study conducted by Skelton et al. (41), a 12-week progressive ST intervention was implemented to assess its effects on the strength, power, and functionality of women aged 75 and older (41). The intervention included three exercise sessions per week, with two sessions conducted at home and one in a group setting. The additional day of exercise, as well as the inclusion of home exercise sessions, differs from the current study, which took place twice a week in a group fitness class setting. While the exercises did not mimic the functional tests entirely, each session was tailored to work the specific muscles relevant for functional tasks. Exercises were performed in three sets of four to eight repetitions, using rice bags and elastic bands for resistance. An assortment of pre- and post-assessments were conducted, including a HGS test, resembling the current study.

Despite these methodological differences, Skelton and colleagues (41) demonstrated increases in HGS, which aligns with the improvements observed in the current research study. In Skelton et al.’s (41) 12-week progressive resistance training program, participants experienced a significant 4% increase in HGS, from a pre-training mean of 21.6 ± 3.4 kg to a post-training mean of 22.3 ± 3.9 kg. This outcome parallels findings from the current research study, whereby a significant 7% improvement in HGS was observed. This supports the notion that 12 weeks of functional resistance training may improve HGS amongst a sample of older individuals.

A potential explanation for the greater improvement in HGS observed in the current study may be the focused, grip-specific training regimen utilized. Skelton et al.’s (41) training program, while progressive and resistance-based, did not include exercises that mimicked or directly engaged the musculature required for grip strength improvement. Instead, the program targeted broader functional movements, such as knee extensors, elbow flexors, and other large muscle groups. This specificity likely contributed to the larger improvement in grip-related performance observed in the current study.

Because the current study partially mimicked and addressed some of the limitations of Pierle and colleagues (37), detailed comparative results will be described. Pierle et al. (37) evaluated the efficacy of a 6-week ST intervention on multiple fitness components of older adults (37). This intervention consisted of 1-2 sets of 8 ST exercises performed twice a week. At the conclusion of this study, participants showed improvements in several fitness and functional areas. In contrast to the current study, Pierle et al. (37) did not observe improvements in HGS.

In the current study, participants demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in right-HGS following a 12-week intervention. Pre-assessment HGS for the right hand was 21.5 ± 1.3 kg, which increased to 23.0 ± 1.4 kg, reflecting a 7.0% improvement and a large effect size (d = 0.99). Conversely, left-hand HGS exhibited a smaller, non-significant increase from 20.2 ± 1.2 kg to 21.1 ± 1.5 kg (4.5% improvement, d = 0.48). Comparatively, Pierle et al. (37) observed no statistically significant changes in HGS, with pre-assessment values averaging 22.4 ± 1.9 kg and post-assessment values averaging 22.8 ± 1.8 kg. The effect size (d = 0.03) was minimal, indicating negligible gains in grip strength.

The differences in duration and intervention may explain this disparity in findings. For instance, the intervention in Pierle et al.’s (37) study lasted for 6 weeks, with two sessions per week, totaling 12 training sessions. This short duration may have limited the time available for participants to experience significant neuromuscular adaptations, such as improved motor unit recruitment and muscle hypertrophy, which are crucial for strength gains (6, 33). In contrast, the current study required participants to exercise for 12 weeks, providing twice the intervention time, therefore allowing for a more progressive overload and adaptation. The longer program likely facilitated more robust changes in muscle strength, particularly in the dominant hand. Previous research documents that strength improvements, particularly in older adults, rely on consistent and prolonged exposure to resistance-based stimuli to elicit meaningful neuromuscular adaptations (9, 20).

Another potential reason for the difference in findings is the modality and specificity of exercises. Pierle and colleagues’ study (37) focused on general ST, which emphasized functional movements, overall balance, core stability, and flexibility but did not prioritize grip-intensive exercises. In contrast, the current study employed targeted resistance and isometric exercises specifically designed to enhance HGS, ensuring a more direct focus on grip-related adaptations. Previous research has shown that exercise modality plays a critical role in the specificity of adaptations (15, 21). The lack of direct HGS training in Pierle et al.’s (37) protocol likely limited the magnitude of HGS improvements compared to the current research study.

The current study displayed a statistically significant improvement in right-HGS. While no statistically significant improvement was observed in left-HGS. While said findings were unanticipated, previous research investigations have displayed similar asymmetrical findings (22, 30, 43). In 2008, Thomas & Sahlberg recruited 41 college-aged males and females to complete an 8-week resistance training protocol with the aim of enhancing HGS. Data revealed by Thomas and Sahlberg (2008) align closely with the current investigation in demonstrating significant improvements in right-hand HGS, while no significant changes were observed in the left-hand HGS. In Thomas and Sahlberg’s (43) study, participants in the training group exhibited a statistically significant increase in right-hand HGS (32.9 ± 8.6 kg to 35.5 ± 7.6 kg) over an 8-week general resistance training intervention. However, the left-hand HGS showed no significant changes (30.7 ± 8.4 kg and 30.2 ± 6.0 kg). Similarly, the current research reported a statistically significant improvement in right-hand HGS (21.5 ± 1.3 kg to 23.0 ± 1.4 kg) but observed no significant change in left-hand HGS, which increased only marginally from 20.2 ± 1.2 kg to 21.1 ± 1.5 kg.

The consistency between these studies highlights the tendency for dominant-hand HGS to exhibit greater responsiveness to resistance training interventions. Both studies emphasize the role of hand dominance in determining training outcomes, with dominant hands showing significant strength gains due to frequent daily use and greater neuromuscular efficiency (5, 39). Conversely, the non-dominant hand may require more targeted stimuli to achieve comparable improvements, as evidenced by the lack of significant HGS gains in the left hand in both studies (13, 40). These findings emphasize the importance of tailoring training programs to address asymmetries and maximize bilateral strength development.

In 2019, Labott and colleagues conducted a comprehensive meta-analytical review to evaluate the effects of various exercise interventions on HGS in older adults. The review analyzed 24 research articles involving 3,018 participants with a mean age of 73.3 years (22), focusing on interventions ranging from resistance training to multimodal programs. While the findings revealed small but statistically significant improvements in HGS overall, the results emphasized a common trend across studies to the extent that greater responsiveness in right-hand HGS compared to the left-hand HGS. These authors concluded that task-specific and multimodal training interventions often yielded measurable gains in dominant hand strength, as this hand benefits from more frequent use and neuromuscular efficiency in daily activities. In contrast, left-hand HGS frequently displayed minimal or no significant change, reflecting the need for targeted stimuli to elicit comparable adaptations in the non-dominant hand. The review highlights this asymmetry as a recurring observation in HGS research, reinforcing the importance of tailored interventions to address disparities between dominant and non-dominant hand strength (5,22).

Although no statistically significant improvement was observed in left-hand HGS among participants in the current study, the practical implications of the findings should not be overlooked. A mean increase of 1.1 kg (4%) represents a meaningful real-world difference, particularly within aging populations. For older adults, even modest improvements in HGS can translate into enhanced functional capacity, better mobility, fall mitigation, greater independence in activities of daily living, and improved overall quality of life (11, 22, 28, 31, 38, 46). Moreover, from an applied perspective, a 4% increase in left-hand HGS may provide critical support in scenarios requiring quick reflexive actions, such as maintaining balance or catching oneself during a fall (28, 34). This seemingly minor improvement could make a significant difference in preventing injury and maintaining mobility, highlighting the value of targeted interventions to enhance HGS, even in cases where statistical significance is not achieved.

There were several limitations to this study that may have impacted the results. The small sample size (n = 12) and the low male participation in this study may have stifled the results from reaching their full expression. Future studies would benefit from a larger and more gender-balanced sample to enhance the generalizability of findings. Additionally, an increased sample size would allow for a control group to be utilized, bolstering the findings of future studies. Adherence to the 12-week intervention proved difficult as it slowly declined by 17% throughout the study, as many participants had busy schedules and prior commitments that interfered with consistent session attendance. Future studies may consider methods to improve adherence, such as scheduling flexibility or at-home modifications. Longer intervention durations may yield more robust findings, as 12 weeks might not have allowed the intervention to reach its full potential. Confounding variables, such as diet, sleep, and baseline activity levels, were not accounted for and may have influenced the results. Tracking these variables in future studies could provide additional insights into their potential impact.

As individuals age, their priorities often shift toward improving quality of life, extending longevity, and maintaining functional independence. Because HGS directly impacts these aspects of healthy aging, its maintenance, or better yet, improvement, should remain a priority in interventions targeting older adults. The intention of this study was to discover the efficacy of a 12-week ST exercise intervention on the HGS of older adults and underscore its importance for healthy aging. The current study revealed a statistically significant improvement in right-HGS, whereas no significant improvement was observed in left-HGS. Future research should evaluate asymmetrical HGS, as this was not an anticipated finding. Additionally, further research should investigate ST in older adult populations, addressing the limited existing evidence on its efficacy in this demographic.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this study suggest that the 12-week ST and HGS exercise regime was statistically and practically effective in increasing overall HGS in older adults. These findings may serve as valuable guidance for fitness instructors, physical therapists, and other allied healthcare professionals working with older adults. Integrating ST exercises and HGS-specific exercises results in improved HGS, an essential component of maintaining functional independence as individuals age. Utilizing the TRX system for this intervention provided unique advantages, as the exercises were simple to perform and customizable to each participant.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Implementing an exercise program focusing on HGS has broader implications, as HGS correlates with improved quality of life, longevity, and reduced risk of falls. Allied healthcare professionals working with older adult populations should educate their patients on the importance of HGS and adopt intentional HGS-focused exercises into their regimens. In doing so, they can help mitigate age-related functional decline and promote better outcomes for aging individuals.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author would like to personally thank the health and wellness team at Carolina Bay at Autumn Hall: Shannon Hardy and Madison Norris.

The author would also like to thank the Center for the Support of Undergraduate Research and Fellowships for their generous contributions.

REFERENCES

Attia, P. (2022, July 30). Avoiding Injury Part II: Grip Strength. Peter Attia MD. https://peterattiamd.com/avoiding-injury-part-ii-grip-strength/
Bohannon, R.W. (2019). Grip strength: an indispensable biomarker for older adults. Clinical Interventions in Aging, 14, 1681–1691. https://doi.org/10.2147/CIA.S194543
Campa, F., Silva, A., & Toselli, S. (2018). Changes in phase angle and handgrip strength induced by suspension training in older women. International Journal of Sports Medicine, 39(06), 442–449. https://doi.org/10.1055/a-0574-3166
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2022, June 9). Keep on your feet-preventing older adult falls. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/falls/about/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/older-adult-falls/index
Chapman, J. A., & Henneberg, M. (1999). Switching the handedness of adults: Results of 10 weeks training of the non-dominant hand. Perspectives in Human Biology, 4(1), 211–217. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233726410
Christie, A., & Kamen, G. (2010). Short-term training adaptations in maximal motor unit firing rates and afterhyperpolarization duration. Muscle & Nerve, 41(5), 651–660. https://doi.org/10.1002/mus.21539
Clark, D.J., & Fielding, R.A. (2012). Neuromuscular contributions to age-related weakness. Journals of Gerontology: Series A, 67(1), 41–47. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glr041
Clark, S., Parisi, J., Kuo, J., & Carlson, M. C. (2016). Physical Activity Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Executive Function Impairment in Older Women. Journal of aging and health, 28(4), 726–739. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264315609908
Conlon, J.A., Newton, R.U., Tufano, J.J., Peñailillo, L.E., & Banyard, H.G. (2017). The efficacy of periodised resistance training on neuromuscular adaptation in older adults. European Journal of Applied Physiology, 117(1), 137–149. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00421-017-3605-1
Cunningham, C., O’ Sullivan, R., Caserotti, P., & Tully, M.A. (2020). Consequences of physical inactivity in older adults: a systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 30(5), 816–827. https://doi.org/10.1111/sms.13616
Damush, T.M., & Damush, J.G. Jr. (1999). The effects of strength training on strength and health-related quality of life in older adult women. The Gerontologist, 39(6), 705–710. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/39.6.705
Domingues, L.B., Schneider, V.M., & Abreu, R.F. (2024). Effects of a 4-week detraining period after 12 weeks of combined training using different weekly frequencies on health-related physical fitness in older adults. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 21(11), 1433. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21111433
Dunn, A.M. (2017). Non-dominant arm training improves functional performance and modifies spontaneous arm selection. Penn State University Libraries Theses and Dissertations. Retrieved from https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/13597amd460
Fritz, N. E., McCarthy, C. J., & Adamo, D. E. (2017). Handgrip strength as a means of monitoring progression of cognitive decline – A scoping review. Ageing research reviews, 35, 112–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arr.2017.01.004
Fyfe, J.J., & Loenneke, J.P. (2018). Interpreting adaptation to concurrent compared with single-mode exercise training: Some methodological considerations. Sports Medicine, 48(2), 289–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-017-0812-1
Gaedtke, A. & Morat, T. (2015). TRX suspension training: a new functional training approach for older adults – development, training control and feasibility.” International Journal of Exercise Science, 8(3), 224–233.
GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators (2022). Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. Public health, 7(2), e105–e125. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8
Gudlaugsson, J., Gudnason, V., Aspelund, T., Siggerirsdottir, K., Olafsdottir, A.S., Jonsson, P.V., Arngrimsson, S.A., Harris, T.B., & Johannnsson, E. (2012). Effects of a 6-month multimodal training intervention on retention of functional fitness in older adults: a randomized-controlled cross-over design. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 9(107). https://doi.org/10.1186/1479-5868-9-107
Haider, S., Luger, E., Kapan, A., Titze, S., Lackinger, C., Schindler, K.E., & Dorner, T.E. (2016). Associations between daily physical activity, handgrip strength, muscle mass, physical performance and quality of life in prefrail and frail community-dwelling older adults. Quality of Life Research, 25(12). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11136-016-1349-8
Häkkinen, K., Alen, M., Kallinen, M., Newton, R.U., & Kraemer, W.J. (2000). Neuromuscular adaptation during prolonged strength training, detraining, and re-strength-training in middle-aged and elderly people. European Journal of Applied Physiology, 83(1), 51–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004210000248
Isner-Horobeti, M.E., Dufour, S.P., Vautravers, P., & Geny, B. (2013). Eccentric exercise training: Modalities, applications, and perspectives. Sports Medicine, 43(6), 483–512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-013-0052-y
Labott, B.K., Bucht, H., Morat, M., Morat, T., & Donath, L. (2019). Effects of exercise training on handgrip strength in older adults: A meta-analytical review. Gerontology, 65(6), 686–696. https://doi.org/10.1159/000501203
Leitão, L., Campos, Y., Louro, H., & Figueira, A.C.C., Figueiredo, T., Pereira, A., Conceicao, A., Marinho, D.A., & Neiva, H.P. (2024). Detraining and retraining effects from a multicomponent training program on the functional capacity and health profile of physically active prehypertensive older adults. Healthcare, 12(2), 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare12020271
Liu, H., Hou, Y., Li, H., & Lin, J. (2022). Influencing factors of weak grip strength and fall: A study based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). BMC Public Health, 22(1), 2337. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14753-x
López-Bueno, R., Andersen, L. L., Koyanagi, A., Núñez-Cortés, R., Calatayud, J., Casaña, J., & Del Pozo Cruz, B. (2022). Thresholds of handgrip strength for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality: A systematic review with dose-response meta-analysis. Aging Research Reviews, 82, 101778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arr.2022.101778
Mayer, F., Scharhag-Rosenberger, F., Carlsohn, A., Cassel, M., Muller, S., & Scharhag, J. (2011) The intensity and effects of strength training in the elderly. Deutsches Ärzteblatt International, 108(21), 359-364. https://doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.2011.0359
McDaniel, A. T., Heijnen, M. J. H., Kawczynski, B., Haugen, K. H., Caldwell, S., Campe, M. M., Conley, E. C., & Tseh, W. (2023). Efficacy of Army Combat Fitness Test 12-Week Virtual Exercise Program. Military medicine, 188(7-8), e2035–e2040. https://doi.org/10.1093/milmed/usac364
McGrath, R., Clark, B. C., Cesari, M., & Johnson, C. (2021). Handgrip strength asymmetry is associated with future falls in older Americans. Aging Clinical and Experimental Research, 33(9), 2461-2469. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-020-01757-z
McGrath, R. P., Kraemer, W. J., Snih, S. A., & Peterson, M. D. (2018). Handgrip strength and health in aging adults. Sports Medicine, 48(5), 1059–1062. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-018-0952-y
McGrath, R., Lang, J., Clark, B.C., Cawthon, P.M., Black, K., Kieser, J., Fraser, B.J., & Tomkinson, G.R. (2023). Prevalence and trends of handgrip strength asymmetry in the United States. Advances in Geriatric Medicine and Research, 5(2), e230006. https://doi.org/10.20900/agmr20230006
McGrath, R., Vincent, B.M., Hackney, K.J., Robinson-Lane, S.G., Downer, B., & Clark, B.C. (2020). The longitudinal associations of handgrip strength and cognitive function in aging Americans. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 21(6), 634-639.e1. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jamda.2019.08.032
McNeil, C.J., & Rice, C.L. (2018). Neuromuscular adaptations to healthy aging. Applied Physiology, Nutrition, and Metabolism, 43(4), 307–317. https://doi.org/10.1139/apnm-2018-0327
Moritani, T. (1993). Neuromuscular adaptations during the acquisition of muscle strength, power, and motor tasks. Journal of Biomechanics, 26(1), 95–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9290(93)90082-P
Neri, S.G.R., Lima, R.M., Ribeiro, H.S., & Vainshelboim, B. (2021). Poor handgrip strength determined clinically is associated with falls in older women. Journal of Frailty, Sarcopenia and Falls, 6(2), 43-49. https://doi.org/10.22540/JFSF-06-043
Norman, K., Stobäus, N., Gonzalez, M.C., Schulzke, J.D., & Pirlich, M. (2011). Hand grip strength: Outcome predictor and marker of nutritional status. Clinical Nutrition, 30(2), 135–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clnu.2010.09.010
Orchard, S.G., Polekhina, G., Ryan, J., Shah, R.C., Storey, E., Chong, T.T., Lockery, J.E., Ward, S.A., Wolfe, R., Nelson, M.R., Reid, C.M., Murray, A.M., Espinoza, S.E., Newman, A.B., McNeil, J.J., Collyer, T.A., Callisaya, M.L., Woods, R.L., & ASPREE Investigator group. (2022). Combination of gait speed and grip strength to predict cognitive decline and dementia. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 14(1), e12353. https://doi.org/10.1002/dad2.12353
Pierle, C., McDaniel, A.T., Schroeder, L.H., Heijnen, M.J.H., & Tseh, W. Efficacy of a 6-Week suspension training exercise program on fitness components in older adults. International Journal of Exercise Science, 15(3), 1168–78, https://doi.org/10.70252/GPEB7735
Santanasto, A.J., Glynn, N.W., Lovato, L.C., Blair, S.N., Fielding, R.A., Gill, T.M., Guralnik, J.M., Fang-Chi, H., King, A.C., Strotmeye, E.S., Manini, T.M., Marsh, A.P., McDermott, M.M., Goodpaster, B.H., Pahor, M., Newman, A.B., & LIFE Study Group. (2017). Effect of physical activity versus health education on physical function, grip strength and mobility. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 65(7), 1427–1433. https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.14804
Sarikaya, P.M., Incel, N.A., Yilmaz, A., & Cimen, O.B. (2017). Effect of hand dominance on functional status and recovery of hand in stroke patients. Science, 6(3), 39-45. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjcm.20170603.12
Shiba, J., & Lizarraga, J. (2020). The effects of laterality card training on non-dominant hand grip strength compared to traditional hand grip strengthening exercises. ProQuest Dissertations. Retrieved from https://search.proquest.com/openview/d14677df9d3c3a2d1f3227defc22bc9f/1
Skelton, D.A., Young, A., Greig, C.A., & Malbut, K.E. (1995) Effects of resistance training on strength, power, and selected functional abilities of women aged 75 and older. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 43(10), 1081–1087. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1995.tb07004.x
Szulc, P., Feyt, C., & Chapurlat, R. (2016). High risk of fall, poor physical function, and low grip strength in men with fracture-the STRAMBO study. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle, 7(3), 299–311. https://doi.org/10.1002/jcsm.12066
Thomas, E.M., & Sahlberg, M. (2008). The effect of resistance training on handgrip strength in young adults. Isokinetics and Exercise Science, 16(3), 159–165. https://doi.org/10.3233/IES-2008-0307
Tung, H., Chen, K., Chou, C., Belcastro, F., Hsu, H., & Kuo, C. (2023). Acupunch exercise improved muscle mass, hand grip strength, and sleep quality of institutional older adults with probable sarcopenia. Journal of Applied Gerontology, 42(5), 888–97. https://doi.org/10.1177/07334648221141413
Watermeyer, T., Massa, F., Goerdten, J., Stirland, L., Johansson, B., & Muniz-Terrera, G. (2021). Cognitive dispersion predicts grip strength trajectories in men but not women in a sample of the oldest old without dementia. Innovation in Aging, 5(3), igab025. https://doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igab025
Winger, M.E., Caserotti, P., Cauley, J.A., Boudreau, R.M., Piva, S.R., Cawthon, P.M., Orwoll, E.S., Ensrud, K.E., Kado, D.M., Strotmeyer, E.S., & Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Research Group (2023). Lower leg power and grip strength are associated with increased fall injury risk in older men: the osteoporotic fractures in men study. The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 78(3), 479–485. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glac122

Troy Palmer2025-05-23T11:26:33-05:00June 13th, 2025|Research, Sport Education, Sport Training, Sports Coaching, Sports Exercise Science, Sports Health & Fitness, Sports Medicine|Comments Off

Losing Matters: A European Association Football Model for NCAA Men’s Basketball

Authors: Tricia Muldoon Brown¹, Andrew M. Heroy², and Eric B. Kahn³

¹Department of Mathematical Sciences, Georgia Southern University, Savannah, GA, USA
²The Metis Foundation, San Antonio, TX, USA
³Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Digital Forensics, Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania, Bloomsburg, PA, USA

Tricia Muldoon Brown
Georgia Southern University
11935 Abercorn Street
Savannah GA, 31419, USA
[email protected]
912-344-3244

Tricia Muldoon Brown, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematical Science at Georgia Southern University in Savannah, GA. Her research interests include recreational mathematics associated with games and sport.

Andrew M. Heroy is employed by the Metis Foundation. His area of specialty is data science. Eric B. Kahn, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematics as Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania. His research interests are in mathematics in sport and IBL in mathematics.

Losing Matters: A European Association Football Model for NCAA Men’s Basketball

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of applying a European association football model to American men’s college basketball.

Methods: Structures for NCAA men’s basketball and European association football are analyzed, and an Association Football (AF) model is proposed which utilizes features of the European system of promotion and relegation and a mathematical model for tournament bids and seeding.

Results: Data were collected for NCAA men’s basketball teams from 2010 through 2019 and we identify teams which would be affected by promotion and relegation each year and compare the AF-modeled NCAA tournament to the actual tournament brackets finding 85% similarity.

Conclusions: Geographic conferences and relegation models where losing matters could be applied to men’s college basketball to decrease costs and increase excitement and fairness, while still having strong agreement with data from recent years.

Applications in Sport: American sports should consider adopting some selection and organizational practices from European sports, particularly objective selection and seeding and regional groupings.

Key Words: college basketball, tournament model, relegation, geographic conferences

INTRODUCTION

European and American sports cultures have many dissimilar features, but none are more notable than the disparate consequences for losing. European football associations follow an open model where teams can be moved between tiers based on their performance that season. On the other hand, American sports leagues use a closed model that does not allow for movement between major and minor leagues. An attempt was made in the 2010’s and early 2020’s to apply a more American system to European football, forming a super league that would bypass the Premier League’s current system of promotion, relegation, and championship selection. When asked about this idea, as reported in Sports Illustrated (1) Man City coach Pep Guardiola famously says, “It is not a sport when it doesn’t matter if you lose.” In contrast, the American version of these opinions is fictionalized in the popular television series Ted Lasso (20). Ted is the new head coach of FC Richmond, and one of his players questions what happens to losing teams if there is no relegation in America. Ted says, “You know, they play out the rest of the schedule, go through the motions in meaningless games contested in lifeless, half-empty stadiums, and everyone is pretty much fine with that.” The negative ramification of a poor season is not the only difference in European and American sports. We also wish to apply the regional nature of the clubs and teams in the European system and the objective selection process for both promotion and relegation, and postseason selection and seeding. These features have benefits in cost, transparency, and enthusiasm.

Taking advantage of these three association football characteristics, an open system, objective ranking process, and regional structure, we propose a new model for National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball conferences and tournaments. We begin by describing the current NCAA conference model and tournament selection process as well as that used by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and the English Football League. Then we introduce the Association Football model for men’s basketball which realigns the conferences, creates a system of promotion and relegation, and objectively selects and seeds the NCAA tournament. Finally, we use the proposed model to identify teams for promotion and relegation and retroactively determine the tournament field using data collected for each year from 2010 through 2019.

METHODS

Current NCAA Model

Basketball is the most sanctioned sport in the NCAA with over 350 colleges and universities fielding Division I (DI) men’s basketball teams. While the precise number of participating teams varies slightly from year to year as teams move up from or down to Division II, every Division I school has a men’s basketball team.

Conference geography and alignment

Division I teams are organized into 32 conferences. The first college basketball conferences were developed in the early 20th century in an attempt to standardize rules and regulations and protect student athletes. These were primarily geographic in nature, as evidenced by many of the naming conventions such as the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association, the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association, or the Pacific Coast Conference. While versions of these conferences still exist in the SEC, the Big 12, and the PAC 12, the participating schools have expanded to include those outside of the original geographic region. For example, the Big 12, originally covering the Missouri Valley, added West Virginia University in 2012 and expanded in 2023 to include Brigham Young University, University of Houston, and University of Central Florida extending the border of the conference from Utah to the gulf of Texas to Florida to West Virginia. Additionally, the Big 10 added University of California Los Angeles and University of Southern California in 2024, stretching the conference from the coast of Maryland to the coast of California. While more feasible today than in 1915, such expansions have an increased cost in dollars and time for teams traveling longer distances.

Moreover, conference affiliation is not necessarily stable, many of the realignments mentioned above were catalyzed by the University of Texas and University of Oklahoma agreeing to move to the SEC for the 2025 season. Conference movement causes ripple effects as losing a university (or two) creates a void, leading conferences losing a team to invite teams from other conferences subsequently leaving other holes to be filled. Further, conferences not directly impacted by a team leaving or entering will often feel the need to realign to stay competitive. Moriarty (13) explores how some conferences benefit while others are harmed by this domino effect. Although conference realignment is often spurred by football, the other sports, including basketball, are also impacted. Conference realignment is not a recent or transitory phenomenon, Daughters (5) finds that 78 teams switched conferences during the period 1998-2013. Conference realignment, studied in the context of college football, has varied effects including increased attendance and profits for the athletic department while lessening regional rivalries. (See Hoffer and Pincin (10) or Dennie (6) for example.) The movement of schools from one conference to another has been and will likely remain a part of the landscape of college sports.

Tournament selection and seeding

Men’s basketball teams typically play around 30 regular season games each year in a mix of conference and non-conference games. The outcomes of these games and the conference tournament help determine selection for and seeding in the NCAA Men’s basketball tournament. Since 2011, 68 college basketball teams have participated in the tournament; the selection process includes 32 automatic bids going to the conference tournament winner for each conference, as well as 36 at-large bid which are selected by a committee to participate in the tournament. The NCAA selection committee is composed of 12 members, expanded from 10 in 2022 (24), and consists of collegiate athletic directors, conference commissioners, and other conference officials. The committee uses a mix of metrics, discussion, and balloting to seed the field (14). While the teams’ win/loss record is the first consideration, many other factors are considered including distances to event locations, expected attendance numbers, television viewership, player injuries, and recency of strong wins. While objective metrics are applied, tournament selection and seeding are essentially subjective processes and come under fire when things like the “eye test” are used to determine whether teams should be in or out. Personal bias can creep in, and despite recent attempts to increaase transparency, the process remains secretive.

Studies on bias in the selection process have produced mixed results. Criticism has been levied toward the Ratings Performance Index (RPI) which was used as a major determining factor until 2018. The RPI is a blunt metric solely determined by a team’s wins and losses as well as their opponents’ wins and losses. Research into bias of the RPI includes Sanders (19) who, building on previous work on bias in the RPI, divides teams into four different types according to the performance of the conference and the performance of the team within its conference, finding a bias against lower performing teams in higher ranked conferences compared with higher performing teams in lower ranked conferences. Coleman (3) looked at bias in both selection and seeding, finding bias towards teams with a conference member on the selection committee and against mid-major teams. On the other hand, Paul and Wilson (16) asserted the RPI is inherently biased as it omits the margin of victory in its calculation. When attempting to correct for this, (as the committee has access to the margin of victory data) they found no bias. The NCAA introduced a newer ranking system in the 2018-2019 season, hoping to correct some of these issues. This system, called NET, classifies wins by quadrants and incorporates variables such as the location of the game and margin of victory. Some recent analysis is available on the effectiveness of part of this newer system. Reinig and Horowitz (18) use a linear programming approach to incorporate the use of the quadrant system, finding results more consistent with the actual tournament selection.

Because of these flaws with subjectivity and bias, we argue a better selection and seeding method should be free of personal biases and transparent. It is not a new idea to apply non- subjective models to the NCAA Tournament selection process. For example, Matthews et. al. (12) applied the PageRank algorithm to rank all teams, selecting the top 64 teams for the tournament; this method has the advantage of incorporating more variables than RPI including venue, date, and point margin. Also, Dutta and Jacobson (7) made use of a decision tree with 11 stages to pairwise compare all NCAA teams. Those with the most pairwise wins were selected for the tournament, and this method successfully selects almost all the participating teams from 2012-2016. Both of these methods have an implied rank so seeding could be affected with the traditional S-curve (and possibly a tie-breaking mechanism). Further, Reinig and Horowitz (17) used seven variables such as RPI and BPI but also polling ranks to generate a final ranking of the teams that respects domination, that is, one team being equal or ahead of another team in all seven variables.

We note that other works are attempting to predict the selection committees’ choices, such as Coleman, DuMond, and Lynch (4) and while we compare our selections with the past selections, this is as validation not prediction. Furthermore, it is understandably a popular topic to predict the outcomes of games in the tournament, but that is not the purpose of this work.

To summarize, the current NCAA model is flawed by its subjective and semi-transparent process of tournament seeding and selection, the higher costs of moving away from a regional conference alignment, and the instability of movement within these conferences. To correct these flaws, we will propose a model adapted from European association football.

European association football as a model

Association football or soccer has been played in Europe since the 1800’s. The football clubs are organized regionally, primarily by nation, with a few exceptions. The modern international governing body is the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) while the clubs in England are regulated by the English Football Association. Here we discuss the promotion and relegation of the English clubs in their national association and selection and seeding for the UEFA tournament.

Promotion and relegation in the English Football League System

The English football league is structured as a pyramid with eleven defined levels where the 20-team Premier League sits on the top tier of the pyramid. At the end of each season, teams are moved between tiers based on their performance. Higher performing teams are promoted up the pyramid to the next level and lower performing teams are relegated down the pyramid to the previous level. In the English system, the number of teams promoted and relegated depends on the level with typically between one and four teams moving into and out of each league. In theory, this system allows any local club the opportunity to move up to the national stage over time. Similar relegation and promotion systems are in place in all the major national football associations. Positive benefits have been seen in the European promotion and relegation systems such as increases in both net attendance and player compensation Noll (15).

In particular, the national teams competing in UEFA Champions League (UCL) or UEFA Europa League (UEL) are almost always selected from the top tier of the pyramid. As we are using the UCL as a model for the NCAA tournament, we also wish to include a series of promotions and relegations. Here we model a shorter pyramid with the so-called “power conferences” above mid-major conferences. Because precedence is given in the tournaments to teams from power conferences in college basketball and premier leagues in association football, the promotion system allows high-performing teams from mid-major conferences the opportunity to move up to play against stronger competition but also have increased opportunity for tournament selection. Next, we look at European tournament selection and seeding.

UEL tournament selection and seeding

The UEFA consists of over 50 members and is composed primarily of national football associations in Europe, with some exceptions for associations formed from groups of nations and nations not having their own association. Each member association falls in one of four categories which determine how many representatives will compete from that association in the UCL and UEL championships. The UCL is considered the premier competition with high-ranking teams failing to qualify for the UCL group stage being selected to compete in the secondary UEL.

We are interested in the UEFA championship as a model for the NCAA tournament because this process is objective. Association representatives for the championship are chosen entirely by mathematical rank within the national championship with between one and four of the top finishing teams chosen from that league (with a rare possibility of five teams if the previous year’s UCL or UEL winner fails to qualify). The number of teams is determined by the association’s five-year club coefficient, a metric that measures the average number of points earned by a qualifying team in UCL and UEL competitions, where points are awarded for wins and ties. Specifically, 2 points are allocated for a win, 1 point for a tie, and 0 points for a loss. Each association is ranked by association coefficient (with a tie-breaking system in place when coefficients are identical). Once these teams enter the field, under typical circumstances 26 teams directly qualify for the group stage. These are the UCL and UEL title holders, the champions from associations ranked 1-10, the second-place teams from members ranked 1-6, and the third and fourth place teams from associations ranked 1-4. (If the UCL or UEL title holder qualifies in one of the other categories, then the champion from the eleventh ranked member or the third placing team from the fifth ranked member association, respectively, is selected for the group stage.) The remaining teams are chosen from two pathways: the Champions path and the League path.

The playoffs allow lower ranking teams a chance to play their way into the UCL group stage. The qualifying phase consists of a preliminary round, and three qualifying rounds along with a final playoff round. Fifty-five teams qualify for the playoffs consisting of 44 champions, 9 runners-up, and 2 third place teams from the remaining highest ranking member associations. The champions play along the Champions path and the second and third place teams play in the League path. The teams earn byes for earlier stages based on their ranking. For example, the top two ranking champions enter in the final play-off round, but the lowest four must begin play in the preliminary round, and the top three runners-up begin playing in the third qualifying round while the next six begin playing in the second qualifying round. Teams are paired based on seeding (determined by an individual club coefficient) and a draw with (after the preliminary round) each pair playing two matches or legs, one on each home field, with the winner determined by total score differential. Any team eliminated before the UCL group stage gains automatic entry in the UEL with byes determined by progression through the qualifying phase and playoff. Furthermore, seeding in the tournament is also determined by coefficients except in extreme instances. Thus, the European system of seeding and selection is based purely on points and is simple, transparent, and unbiased. To make use of these advantages, we propose the Association Football (AF) model for NCAA men’s basketball. Our method provides conference alignments, a tournament selection process, and a promotion and relegation system.

Geographic conference alignment

To create new conference alignments, we classified seven conferences[1] in men’s college basketball (ACC, American, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, and PAC-12) as top-level basketball conferences, because, although there is variability from year to year, these seven conferences typically have the highest non-conference win percentages. For example, in the 2019-20 season these conferences were each winning over 70-80% of their games outside of their conferences according to Wittry (22). In the AF model, the 87 teams from these conferences will form a league analogous to UEFA’s Premier League and as such, they will receive a higher proportion of automatic bids into the tournament. Our proposal of geographic redistricting condenses these seven conferences down to five (East, Central, Midwest, South, and West), with each conference being sub-divided into two divisions. Figure 1 illustrates the top teams grouped into 10 new divisions within five geographic top conferences which we call the Premier-5 (P5) conferences. (Table 7 in the Appendix lists the teams by conference and division.)

Figure 1: Premier-5 teams grouped by divisions

The remaining D1 teams are placed in Mid-major (MM) conferences (also named East, Central, Midwest, South, and West) that are also subdivided into divisions. Universities are assigned to conferences and divisions with regional proximity as the main factor, and as a secondary factor we tried to keep teams from the same state in the same division. Figure 2 illustrates the distribution of Mid-major teams into 18 divisions. Full lists of these divisions with additional images can be found Tables 8-12 in the Appendix. (Note, the Ivy League with its differing athletic philosophy is exempt from this realignment.)

As expected, universities are not evenly distributed throughout the United States. A lower density of universities in the western states causes those conferences to be geographically larger while a higher density on the eastern seaboard causes those conferences to be geographically smaller but to consist of a larger number of teams. There is precedence for this variation of size

Figure 2: Mid-major teams grouped by divisions (excluding Hawai’i)

within UEFA’s national associations; for example, Scotland has 12 teams while England has 20 in their top leagues. Current DI conferences averaging about 12 teams: the smallest conference is the Ivy League with 8 teams and largest is the Big 10 with 18 teams. The seven major conferences contributing to the AF realignment have expanded in recent years and now average 14 teams per conference. Our five new Premier-5 conferences are comparable in size, but slightly bigger averaging 17 teams per conference and 9 teams for each division. The 13 new mid-major divisions are larger than current conferences averaging about 14 teams per division with a minimum of 8 teams and a maximum of 21 teams in a division.

NCAA tournament

As in association football, some mechanism of promotion and relegation is needed to help the Premier-5 conferences maintain their premier status and deservedly earn the extra automatic bids in the NCAA tournament. Following the association football model, associated with each conference will be a numerical conference coefficient and with each team a numerical team coefficient. Let team P5 wins be the number of games a team wins against Premier-5 teams, and similarly team MM wins are the number of wins the team had against Mid-major teams. The team games are the total number of games played by the team in the regular season. We define team coefficient as follows:

Conference coefficients are then the mean of the team coefficients in that conference. Likewise, division coefficients are the mean of the team coefficients in that division. Mimicking association football, we use a simple 2-1-0 point system. The difference being, as college basketball games do not end ties, we keep track of the typical expected difficulty of the game by awarding 2 points for a Premier-5 win, 1 point for a Mid-major win, and 0 points for a loss.

With the team and division coefficients in place, the NCAA tournament can be restructured into two-tiers where top teams are automatically entered into the final tournament of 64 teams and lower-tier teams are given the opportunity to win a one-game playoff or “play-in” game for entry into the tournament. The teams are ranked within their conference by their team coefficients. We say TC1 is the team with the highest coefficient, TC2 the team with the second highest coefficient, and so on. Then we rank the Premier- 5 conferences from 1 to 5 based on their conference coefficients, and we rank the Mid-major conferences from 1 to 19 based on their conference coefficients. Similarly, here PC# represents the #th ranked premier conference and MC# represents the #th ranked mid-major conference. Along with a tiebreaker, the coefficients completely determine seeding and region for each team. All teams labeled TC1 get an automatic bid, but teams TC2, TC3, and TC4 in PC1 also get an automatic bid as well as teams TC2 and TC3 from PC2 and PC3. This allocated the first 32 spots in the tournament. Further, the order of the locations may be rotated each year so each part of the country has the option to host the top-ranked team, as is done with the FBS national tournament, or alternately, as has been proposed for the NCAA, the teams given one seeds could choose their region with the PC1 TC1 team choosing first, the PC2 TC2 teams choosing second, and the PC3 TC1 team choosing third. The seeding of the teams with automatic bids is found in Table 1.

Table 1: Tournament Seeding

SEED	EAST	SOUTH	MIDWEST	WEST
1	PC01 TC1	PC02 TC1	PC03 TC1	PC04 TC1
2	PC03 TC2	PC02 TC2	PC01 TC2	PC05 TC1
3	PC01 TC3	PC02 TC3	PC03 TC3	PC01 TC4
4	MC03 TC1	MC02 TC1	MC01 TC1	PC01 TC5
5	MC04 TC1	MC05 TC1	MC06 TC1	MC07 TC1
6	MC11 TC1	MC10 TC1	MC09 TC1	MC08 TC1
7	MC12 TC1	MC13 TC1	MC14 TC1	MC15 TC1
8	MC19 TC1	MC18 TC1	MC17 TC1	MC16 TC1

The remaining 32 teams are determined by play-in games and are seeded by S-curve with the winner of the top-ranked play-in game seeded 9^th in the East to the winner of the lowest-ranked play-in game seeded 16^th in the East. To determine the teams in these play-in games we rank all unseeded premier conference teams by their team coefficients. The top 36 Premier-5 conference teams from any division will play in the preliminary round of the tournament. Here we identify the teams rather than the conferences with P#. Similarly, we rank all unseeded Mid-major conference teams by their team coefficients labeling them M#. Here the top 28 Mid-major teams will get a spot in the play-in round. The play-in games are seeded as shown in Table 2. The choice of 36 Premier-5 conference teams and 28 Mid-major conference teams may seem somewhat arbitrary, but when comparing the team coefficients of the 36th Premier-5 conference team and the 1st Mid-major team we saw consistency and so believe this strikes the correct balance. (See the discussion in Section 5.)

Table 2: Play-in games

Game

Home

P01

P02

P03

P04

P05

P06

P07

P08

P09

P10

P11

P12

Away

M28

M27

M26

M25

M24

M23

M22

M21

M20

M19

M18

M17

Game

Home

P13

P14

P15

P16

P17

P18

P19

P20

P21

P22

P23

P24

Away

M16

M15

M14

M13

M12

M11

M10

M09

M08

M07

M06

M05

Game

Home

P25

P26

P27

P28

P29

P30

P31

P32

Away

M04

M03

M02

M01

P36

P35

P34

P33

Promotion and relegation

An obvious difficulty with applying the model of promotion and relegation from a professional sports league to a collegiate setting is travel. Professional teams are composed of adults whose primary relationship to the team is that of an employee making extended travel simply a component of the work environment. On the other hand, college athletes have the additional responsibilities of being students, and the negative impact of extensive travel demands on scholastic responsibilities should be minimized if possible. With teams being promoted and relegated between Premier-5 and Mid-major conferences, coordinating geographic regions between the conferences is one way to achieve lower travel costs on the student athletes. There is evidence that geographic redistricting can be advantageous in more ways than the direct savings in time of travel. Lawrence (11) suggests rearranging the divisions around regional competition and rivalries will save in operational costs but also help ease overall inequalities between institutions. Additionally, Featherston (8) argues that geographic conferences are central to a student- centered conference alignment approach over the current model driven by financial incentives of national exposure.

With these coefficients in place, the promotion and regulation are simple processes. At the end of each season, within each conference teams are ranked by their team coefficients. The lowest ranking team in each of the ten Premier-5 divisions is identified. Within each mid-major conference, the divisions with the two highest division coefficients are selected and the team with the largest team coefficient from that division is chosen. Then the premier teams and mid-major teams move down and up respectively. Geography is used to determine how the Premier-5 and Mid-major teams are paired and swapped. A total of four teams will be directly affected by the promotion and relegation process in each of the five conferences.

We note, while it may seem unfair to have almost twice as many team vying for the promotion in the East, very talented winning teams in lower-ranked Mid-major East divisions will still have the option to move up in the next season’s promotion. Further, given the large number of mid-major teams in the West it may make sense to promote without relegation for the first two years to increase the size of the Premier-5 West conference to 16 teams to more closely parallel the other four conferences. Finally, the teams from the Ivy League conference will lie outside of this system and remain at the Mid-major level.

DISCUSSION

We have specified how the geographic AF model has the potential to lower costs for the schools and the athletes in terms of travel time and travel expenses as well as potentially balancing operational expenses. The AF model of promotion and relegation also provides stability. There is still movement and excitement or disappointment among the fan bases, but in a controlled manner, so conferences are not left floundering if a team leaves. Objective tournament selection and seeding also has the advantage of reducing bias by removing subjectivity. It should be acknowledged that the weighting system for wins in Premier-5 versus Mid-major divisions will benefit from further study to evaluate if it unfairly favors certain types of teams. The geographic model also has the advantage of increasing fan attendance and revenue as fans of opposing teams will be more able to travel to see the games. These competitive atmospheres could increase and build regional rivalries leading to higher excitement about the game. Most historic college basketball rivalries are geographic in nature, so there is unlikely to be a net negative effect here as well, for example Duke and North Carolina or Kentucky and Louisville, will either remain in the same conference or division, or switch from being in different conferences to being in the same conference or division.

We also posit an increased incentive to win nearer the end of the season for certain teams. With the current system, teams at the bottom of their league in a premier conference are only incentivized to win regular season games through seeding in the conference tournaments and the seeding in the NCAA should their long shot of winning the conference tournament occur. With the AF model, these lower-performing teams will be fighting against relegation, trying to keep their spot in premiere conferences. For Mid-major teams near the top of the conference, current incentives to win the conference and get top seeding in their conference tournament are already strong. Earning promotion will provide another tangible payout for winning the conference title.

Along with these general advantages, we consider potential impacts to the specific teams who get promoted or relegated at the end of the season. These schools will likely see changes in revenue, especially regarding media contracts and possibly apparel and licensing, depending on whether the team was promoted or relegated, changes could be positive or negative. In either case, schools would have to deal with the logistics of rebranding for their new conference. As discussed, conference realignment is already a frequent process so these impacts likely will not be worse in most cases, but there is the possibility a team could move up and down frequently. (For example, Grimsby Town F.C. has been promoted or relegated at least 30 times among different English club tiers over its 100+ year history (9)). Using data from the English Football League, Wilson (21) finds that 75% of teams survive promotion for at least one year with an average rate of 3.1 years before relegation. The English model has five tiers and thus four possible avenues of promotion and the rates of surviving that first promotion vary widely among the tiers.

There is also uncertainty remaining. One major difference between professional sports leagues and college athletics is the recruitment process and choices to attend or transfer from a school that are made by the college athlete. Would teams on the edge of either promotion or relegation see positive, negative, or neutral net impacts on recruiting and transfer decisions? Another uncertainty is the effect on competitive balance. Regular conference realignment can help balance the power within the conference, but geographical divisions do not consider the strength of the program, currently or historically.

RESULTS

We now retroactively apply the AF model to past NCAA tournaments. Data was collected on regular season wins and losses for NCAA Division I men’s basketball teams for the years 2010 through 2019. These data were collected from the website Basketball Reference (2) during the months of May and June in 2021 and used to calculate the previously described team and conference coefficients for each team, conference, and year.

Retroactive promotion and relegation

First, we recognize the teams who are promoted or relegated by the Association Football model from 2010 to 2019 using the AF model conference and division alignments. (See Table 3.)

Table 3: Teams Promoted or Relegated under the Model by Year

Year	Relegated	Promoted
2010	Nebraska, Tulane East Carolina, Penn State DePaul, Indiana Auburn, Central Florida UCLA, Utah	Missouri State, Sam Houston State Rhode Island, Richmond Marshall, Northern Iowa Murray State, UAB Gonzaga, UT El Paso
2011	Oklahoma, TCU Providence, Wake Forest DePaul, Indiana Auburn, South Florida Oregon State, Utah	Missouri State, North Texas Fairfield, Richmond Marshall, Northern Iowa Belmont, Coastal Carolina Gonzaga, Brigham Young
2012	Nebraska, Texas Tech Boston College, East Carolina DePaul, Butler Auburn, South Carolina Southern California, Utah	Rice, Saint Louis Davidson, Wagner Dayton, South Dakota State Murray State, Southern Mississippi Gonzaga, New Mexico
2013	TCU, Tulsa Penn State, Virginia Tech DePaul, Xavier Auburn, South Florida Oregon State, Washington State	S. F. Austin, Saint Louis Davidson, Massachusetts Akron, North Dakota State Middle Tennessee, Southern Mississippi Gonzaga, New Mexico
2014	TCU, Tulsa Boston College, Virginia Tech Butler, DePaul Mississippi State, South Florida Southern California, Washington State	S. F. Austin, Saint Louis North Carolina Central, VCU Green Bay, Toledo Middle Tennessee, Southern Mississippi Gonzaga, New Mexico
2015	Missouri, Texas Tech Rutgers, Virginia Tech DePaul, Michigan Auburn, South Florida Southern California, Washington State	Sam Houston State, S. F. Austin Old Dominion, Wofford Dayton, Northern Iowa Georgia Southern, Murray State Colorado State, Gonzaga
2016	Missouri, Tulane Boston College, East Carolina Minnesota, Ohio State Auburn, South Florida UCLA, Washington State	Texas A&M Corpus Christi, S. F. Austin Monmouth, James Madison/VCU Dayton, South Dakota State Chattanooga, UNC Wilmington Gonzaga, Hawai‘i
2017	Tulane, Wichita State Boston College, North Carolina State DePaul, Indiana/Ohio State South Florida, Mississippi State Oregon State, Washington	Louisiana Tech, UT Arlington VCU, Winthrop Dayton, Illinois State Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington Gonzaga, Nevada
2018	Oklahoma State, Tulane East Carolina, Pittsburgh DePaul, Indiana Mississippi, South Florida California, Washington State	Louisiana Lafayette, Southern Illinois Saint Bonaventure, UNC Greensboro Loyola (IL), South Dakota State College of Charleston, Middle Tennessee Gonzaga, New Mexico State
2019	Oklahoma State, Tulane East Carolina, Pittsburgh Illinois, Notre Dame Georgia, Vanderbilt California, Washington State	Abilene Christian, Louisiana Lafayette VCU, Wofford South Dakota State, Toledo Belmont, College of Charleston UC Irvine, Nevada

While examining this table, unsurprisingly Gonzaga, a mid-major team who has been a national title contender in multiple tournaments, is predicted to be promoted in each of the years except 2019 and in that year their division coefficient was lower than the other two divisions in their conference. Other often-promoted teams are Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, South Dakota State who were promoted four times. Further, DePaul is outclassed in their proposed division and would be predicted to be relegated in 8 of the 10 years. Auburn, East Carolina, Tulane, and Washington State are also relegated in five of the ten years and USF would have been relegated six times. More remarkably, we note that it is possible for quite good teams to get relegated. The Midwest Great Lakes conference was so strong that either Indiana or Ohio State, with 17-14 records, were relegated in 2017. Finally, there is plenty of variety, 42 different teams had seasons bad enough to earn relegation and 56 different teams were promoted.

Comparison of the Association Football model to past NCAA tournament selections

We can also look at the model through the lens of the seeding of the NCAA tournament. We have chosen the 2016 tournament as an example. Tables 5 and 6 found in the Appendix illustrate how the tournament could have been seeded that year. Between the 32 automatic bids and the 32 play-in bid winners the AF model allows for 96 teams to make the NCAA tournament field, that is 32 pre-first round play-in games followed by the traditional 63 game single-elimination tournament. Given the on-and-off discussion for expanding the tournament field, we argue that this model increases the satisfaction of teams involved, allowing for more teams to participate as well as improving the selection process. Since the AF model has 28 more teams than the current model for tournaments from 1999 through 2010 and 24 more teams for tournaments after 2011, we examine teams that would not participate in the tournament as determined by the AF models but did receive a bid under the current system. These are the teams that potentially object to the change in system. Table 4 lists the teams not selected by the AF model from 2010 to 2019. Except for 2011, only one or two premier teams were not selected by our model each of the ten years, with a total of sixteen Premier-5 teams being selected in the actual tournaments, but not by the AF model. There was a wider range of Mid-major teams that were not selected: between six and twelve each year and a total of 83 over the ten years. Therefore, the AF model agrees with 85% of the tournament committees’ selections.

We can also look at a basic analysis of the automatic seeding in the model as compared to the committee’s seeding. We consider 13 top teams automatically seeded from the premier conferences. Because the committee is much more likely to take a top premier conference team that does not win its conference tournament, these are less likely to be affected by upsets in a conference tournament than the remaining 19 teams selected after these top-ranked teams. Thirty-nine of the 40 number 1 seeds in our model were selected for the tournament by the committee, with the one missing being Oregon in 2012. Seeding by the committee ranged from 1 to 6 with the average seeding over these 39 teams being 2.205. There were also 39 of the 40, number 2 seeds selected for the tournament by the committee. The excluded team being SMU in 2016 that was ineligible for the tournament due to NCAA violations. The range here of actual seeds was from 1 to 9, and the average seeding was 3.000. Regarding number 3 seeds, there were again 39 of 40 teams selected by the committee. (SMU in 2014 is the excluded team in this case.) The range is broader, from 1 to 12, with an average seed of 4.203. Overall, the committee and model seedings for teams selected by both was off by an average of 1.110 in those 13 top-ranked teams.

We also used the data to justify the play-in team ranking of 36 Premier-5 teams followed by 28 Mid-major teams. Over the ten years, the 36th-ranked Premier-5 team had a mean team coefficient of 0.9139 while the following top-ranked Mid-major play-in team had a team coefficient of 0.9246. This is less than one one-hundredth of a point advantage to the premier conference team.

We recall that the committee only chooses the at-large teams, with 32 teams chosen automatically by winning their conference tournament. The AF model is unable to account for the situation where a team that performed poorly in the regular season won their conference tournament and received an automatic bid. In fact, many of the current Mid-major conferences have such weak strength of schedules that even teams with reasonably good records won’t be selected unless they win their conference tournament. So, discounting the teams whose records were not strong, but received and automatic bid by winning their conference tournaments, there were only twelve teams that that the AF model omitted. These are: Penn State (2011), Marquette (2011), Southern California (2011), Xavier (2012), Temple (2013), Texas (2014), Purdue (2015), Wichita State (2016), Vanderbilt (2017), Alabama (2018), and Butler (2018).

CONCLUSIONS

We hypothesize some reasons for these teams being selected by the committee despite their poorer performance in the AF model. First, some teams may have been selected based on the “star-power” of that team. The primary example is the 2011 Marquette team that had both Jae Crowder

Table 4: NCAA Tournament teams not selected by the AF model from 2010 to 2019

Year	Teams	Premier-5	Mid-major	Total
2010	New Mexico State (12), Houston* (13), Ohio (14), Robert Morris (15), UC Santa Barbara (15), East Tennessee (16), UA Pine Bluff (16), Lehigh (16)	1	7	8
2011	Butler* (8), Penn State* (10), Marquette* (11), USC* (11), Indiana State (14), Wofford (14), Saint Peter’s (14), Northern Colorado (15), UC Santa Barbara (15), Akron (15), UT San Antonio (16), Alabama State (16), UNC Asheville (16), UA Little Rock (16), Boston University (16)	4	11	15
2012	Xavier* (10), Saint Bonaventure (14), Detroit Mercy (15), Mississippi Valley State (16), Western Kentucky (16), Vermont (16)	1	6	7
2013	Temple* (9), New Mexico State (13), Pacific (15), Iona (15), Albany (15), James Madison (16), Long Island (16), Western Kentucky (16), Liberty (16), North Carolina A&T (16)	1	9	10
2014	Texas* (7), Tulsa* (13), Lafayette (14), Milwaukee (15), American (15), Wofford (15), Coastal Carolina (16), Weber State (16), Albany (16), Mount Saint Mary’s (16), Cal Poly (16), Texas Southern (16)	2	10	12
2015	Purdue* (9), UC Irving (13), Valparaiso (13), UAB (14), Northeastern (14), Belmont (15), Texas Southern (15), New Mexico State (15), Lafayette (16), North Florida (16), Robert Morris (16), Manhattan (16), Hampton (16)	1	12	13
2016	Wichita State* (11), Florida Gulf Coast (16), Fairleigh Dickinson (16), Holy Cross (16), Southern (16), Austin Peay (16), Hampton (16)	1	6	7
2017	Vanderbilt* (9), Kent State (14), Iona (14), Troy (15), Jacksonville State (15), Mount Saint Mary’s (16), South Dakota State (16), Texas Southern (16), UC Davis (16)	1	8	9
2018	Alabama* (9), Butler* (10), Davidson (12), Marshall (13), CSU Fullerton (15), Iona (15), LIU Brooklyn (16), Radford (16), North Carolina Central (16), Texas Southern (16)	2	8	10
2019	Mississippi State* (5), Mississippi* (8), Saint Mary’s (11), Colgate (15), North Carolina Central (16), North Dakota State (16), Fairleigh Dickinson (16), Prairie View A&M (16), Iona (16)	2	7	9

and Jimmy Butler, two current NBA stars, and Darius Johnson-Odom who were all drafted in 2011 or 2012. Another example, is Colin Sexton on Alabama in 2018 who was the No. 2 ranked point guard coming out of high school and drafted 8^th that year. Other teams with future NBA draft picks include USC in 2011 with Nikola Vusevic, or 2016 Wichita State with Landry Shamet. Even undrafted players can excite notice: for example Fred VanVleet on that same Wichita State team twice won the Missouri Valley Player of the Year and the 2017 Vanderbilt team with Luke Kornet breaking school shot-blocking records. Although impossible to precisely measure the impact these future NBA players had on the national conversation, it is quite natural that committee members, also being fans, would be excited to see what some of these players could do in the tournament.

The committee might have also placed extra weight on runs in the conference tournament even if the team did not end up winning the championship game. Penn State and Xavier lost in their conference championship game while USC, Texas, Purdue, Wichita State, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Butler all lost in their conference semifinals. In fact, 6 of the 9 lost to the eventual winner of the conference tournament. The AF model does not include data from the conference tournaments, so these wins may have helped propel these teams into the tournament if included.

Another explanation for the omission of some teams is strength of schedule as based on the Premier-5 and Mid-major teams in our model. Take the 2016 Wichita State team as an illustration. Overall, their record of 26-9 is favorable, but Wichita State did not move into the American Athletic Conference until the 2017-18 season. So, while they are considered a Premier-5 conference school in AF rankings, they almost exclusively played Mid-major schools in the 2015-16 season precipitating a low team coefficient. There may also be a recency bias; the committee may have felt that based on the past success of Wichita State in the Missouri Valley Conference the 26-9 record deserved a bid, even though our metric disagrees. Wichita State may not be the only team that was selected because of recent tournament success; a weak 2018 Butler was granted a spot in the tournament after stronger Butler teams had appeared in the previous three tournaments and nine of the last eleven.

Finally, we suggest that the committee composed of humans is fallible and some of these teams simply should not have been selected. Especially since our model selected an additional 28 (31 in 2010) teams, team omissions from our model suggests we ranked them significantly lower than the tournament committee who placed them in the field of 68 (65 in 2010). In particular, we point to the selection of Mississippi in 2019. Mississippi had a mediocre record of 20-12 and exited the SEC tournament in the first round. They had no notable players and no tradition of playing in the tournament with only two appearances (2013, 2015) in the previous 15 years. We see also in this year; Mississippi State was selected by the committee and not by the AF model. This decision is also questionable as Mississippi State had a mediocre record of 23-10 and quickly exited the SEC tournament reaching only the quarterfinals. They did however have some second-round future NBA draft picks in Quinndary Weatherspoon who was drafted 49th overall in the 2019 draft and Robert Woodard and Reggie Parry who were drafted 40th and 57th, respectively, in the 2020 draft.

To conclude, geographic conferences and relegation models where losing matters could be applied to men’s college basketball to decrease costs and increase excitement and fairness, while still having strong agreement with data from recent years.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT

American sports should consider adopting some selection and organizational practices from European sports, particularly objective selection and seeding and regional groupings.

REFERENCES

Allen, N. (2021, April 20). “It’s not a sport when it doesn’t matter if you lose!” – Pep Guardiola sends out fiery message to European Super League. SI.com Retrieved from https://www.si.com/soccer/manchestercity/news/its-not-a-sport-when-it-doesnt-matter-if-you-lose-pep-guardiola-sends-out-fiery-message-to-europea
Sports Reference LLC (2021). Basketball-Reference.com – Basketball Statistics and History. Retrieved from https://www.basketball-reference.com.
Coleman, B. J., DuMond, J. M., and Lynch, A. K. (2010). Evidence of bias in NCAA tournament selection and seeding. Managerial and Decision Economics, 31 (7), 431-452.
Coleman, B. J., DuMond, J. M., and Lynch A. (2016). An easily implemented and accurate model for predicting NCAA tournament at-large bids. Journal of Sport Analytics, 2 (2), 121-132.
Daughters, A. (2014, July 2). A Timeline of Conference Football Conference Realignment over the BCS Era. Bleacher Report. Retrieved from https://bleacherreport.com/articles/ 2115606-a-timeline-of-college-football-conference-realignment-over-the-bcs-era.
Dennie, C. (2011). Conference realignment: from back-yard brawls to cash cows. Mississippi Sports Law Review, 1, 249-79.
Dutta, S. and Jacobson, S. (2018). Modeling the NCAA basketball tournament selection process using a decision tree. Journal of Sports Analytics, 4(1), 65-71.
Featherston, S (2017). Building an Alternative NCAA Division I Competition Model. Thesis University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing.
F.C.H.D., Football Club History Database. Retrieved Aug 2022 from https://www.fchd.info/ GRIMSBYT.HTM
Hoffer, A. J. and Pincin, J. A. (2015). The effects of conference realignment on NCAA athletic departments. Applied Economics Letters, 22(15) 1209-1223.
Lawrence, H. (2013). The Impact of Intercollegiate Athletics Financial Inequalities. Journal of Intercollegiate Sport, 6, 25-43.
Matthews, N. R., McLain, A., Smith, C. M. L., Tennant, and A. G. (2021). Application of PageRank Algorithm to Division I NCAA men’s basketball as bracket formation and outcome predictive utility. Journal of Sports Analytics, 7, 1-9.
Moriarty, M. (2021, December 21). Winners and Losers of College Football Conference Realignment. Bleacher Report. Retrieved from https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2951683-winners-and-losers-of-college-football-conference-realignment
NCAA.com. (2021). How the field of 68 teams is picked for March Madness. Retrieved from https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-01-15/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness
Noll, R. G. (2002). The Economics of Promotion and Relegation in Sports Leagues: The Case of English Football. Journal of Sports Economics, 3(2), 169-203.
Paul, R. J. and Wilson, M. (2015). Political Correctness, Selection Bias, and the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Journal of Sports Economics, 16(2), 201-213.
Reinig, B. A. and Horowitz, I. (2018). Using Mathematical Programming to Select and Seed Teams for the NCAA Tournamen., INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics, 48(3), https://doi.org/10. 1287/inte.2017.0939
Reinig, B. A. and Horowitz, I. (2019). Analyzing the impact of the NCAA Selection committee’s new quadrant system. Journal of Sports Analytics, 5,325-333.
Sanders, S. (2007). A Cheap Ticket to the Dance: Systematic Bias in College Basketball’s Rating Percentage Index. Economics Bulletin, 4 (34), 1-7.
B. Hunt (Writer), J. Kelly (Writer), J. Sudeikis (Writer), and M. J. Delaney (Director) (2020). The Hope That Kills You [Television series episode]. In J. Sudeikis (Creator), B. Lawrence (Creator), B. Hunt (Creator), and J. Kelly (Creator). Ted Lasso. Apple TV+.
Wilson, C. (2020, October 8). The data behind promotion and relegation in the EFL. TFA, 42. Retrieved from https://totalfootballanalysis.com/article/ how-difficult-is-it-to-climb-through-the-english-football-league-system
Wittry, A. (2020, February 24). This is how every conference has done through 2,424 non- conference men’s basketball games in 2019-20. NCAA.com. Retrieved from https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-01-07/how-every-conference-has-done-so-far-through-2424-non

[1] Conference membership as of 2023

George Minoso2025-03-27T07:20:41-05:00June 6th, 2025|Contemporary Sports Issues, Sport Education, Sports Studies|Comments Off