The price of NFL fandom: An exploratory study of the past, present, and future purchasing power of NFL fans

### Abstract

Concerns regarding gentrification of sports and the loss of middle-income fans have increased throughout the years, as ticket prices have continued to increase well beyond the rate of inflation for professional sports. This research focused on the changes in purchasing power for fans wishing to attend live games in the National Football League from 1991 to 2009 and then made subsequent forecasts for purchasing power 10 years into the future, should current pricing trends continue unabated. The Fan Cost Index (FCI) was utilized to compare purchasing power over time. Results showed that average FCI price for the league increased by 75% beyond inflation from 1991 to 2009. Purchasing power for fans from all the teams in the study diminished in some fashion from 1991 to 2009. However, eight of the 24 teams in the study severely reduced fan purchasing power, including a 50% or more reduction in the number of tickets alone. If pricing trends continue, the league could experience decreased attendance, particularly from fans in the lower income brackets.

**Key words:** purchasing power, FCI, gentrification, NFL, ticket prices

### Introduction

Research on ticket prices, as one of many motivational factors in attending professional sporting events, has been analyzed in sport-marketing studies since Noll’s (13) seminal work identifying significant factors that determine attendance (2,8,13). Sport economists have utilized ticket pricing data to analyze both elasticity of demand and profit-maximizing behavior of organizations (1,3,16). Conversely, few studies involving ticket prices have examined the financial impact of those pricing decisions on the fans attending sporting events. Concern by both the media and academicians regarding the gentrification of professional sports has increased as ticket prices have continued to climb at rates that outpace increases in ordinary household incomes (11).

#### Fan Cost Index

Team Marketing Report created the Fan Cost Index (FCI) to reflect the average cost for a family of four to attend a sporting event. While not without its detractors (many of whom would claim that a family can attend games at a fraction of the cost presented by the FCI), the FCI has provided the most comprehensive pricing data set of professional sport franchises for the last two decades (17). The FCI goods and services “basket” includes the cost of four average-priced tickets, two draft beers, four soft drinks, four hot dogs, two caps, two programs, and parking for one vehicle. All four professional sport leagues have increased prices of their goods and services in the FCI basket considerably from 1991 to 2009. The NFL has outpaced the other professional leagues in FCI increases since 2000. The NFL league average FCI went from $151.55 in 1991 to $278.37 in 2000 to $412.64 in 2009 (17).

#### Economic Disconnect of Sport Fans

The increase in cost to attend live sporting events for all professional sports has received both academic and media attention. The primary focus of this attention has been centered on the argument that all but the wealthiest fans are being priced out of the live sporting event experience. One common question raised in these arguments is whether the long-term health of professional sports leagues is sacrificed for short-term financial gains, as gentrification of sports could lead to a decline in interest among lower and middle class youths who never had the opportunity to attended games during their childhood (5).

In an analysis of Major League Baseball fans, Dortch (6) suggested that in the future Major League Baseball would face a disconnect with younger fans as the demographics of America change. The eventual aging and loss of the baby-boom generation will require Major League Baseball to replace the extremely large baby-boomer fan base with younger fans, many of whom did not grow up attending many baseball games. Dortch highlighted the significance of higher household income as it related to the higher probability of a person attending a sporting event compared to ten years prior. While the focus of the article was on Major League Baseball, it addressed all four major professional sports leagues, as they all face gentrification resulting from the focus on courting more fans who are affluent. The findings of the research illustrated the importance of the baby-boomers on attendance through 2010, with the warning that the generation following the baby boomers might not assume their role when it comes to attending sporting events.

Howard (10) examined the difference in cost for a family of four to attend an NFL game in 1957 compared to attending an NFL game in 1997. The $12.50 it cost in 1957 ($71.40 in 1997 dollars) would cover less than a third (28%) of the $257.00 cost in 1997. Howard emphasized concern for the problematic trend of corporate spectators becoming a large proportion of the attendees at sporting events. The concern has become that corporate spectators do not use their personal funds to gain access and therefore lack the same “emotional commitment and loyalty” (p. 86). Howard also argued corporate spectators were a major cause for the large number of no-shows by ticket holders.

One professional league affected by steep ticket price increases since 1989 was the English Premier League. Premier League fans experienced 600% increases in ticket prices since 1989 and fans under the age of 24 attending games decreased from approximately 25% in 1992 to a league wide average of only 9% in 2006 (5).

#### Purpose of the Study

The primary purpose of this study was to examine the change in purchasing power of NFL fans since the first publication of the Fan Cost Index (FCI) in 1991. The NFL was selected because the league average FCI is currently the highest of the big four leagues and has increased the most since the creation of the FCI. Further, the NFL is America’s favorite sports league, according to annual polls, and has been growing in popularity over the last 23 years (9). This study also intended to forecast future FCI prices based on past pricing trends in order to illustrate future purchasing power losses if sport marketers and executives continue applying the same pricing patterns in the future.

### Method

The study identified the change over time in the amount of goods and services a family would receive when applying the 1991 FCI to future years, controlling for inflation. The study utilized 19 years of price changes for each FCI component to pinpoint yearly price changes and to forecast prices 10 years into the future to project loss of purchasing power. In order to allow for comparison of prices over time, all monetary figures were converted into constant 2008 dollars using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI conversion tables on estimated future CPIs through 2019 (14).

### Sample and Procedure

The study investigated the changes in purchasing power of NFL fans over a 19-year period (1991 through 2009). The components of each team’s FCI were used to represent a basket of goods and services. Once all monetary figures were converted into 2008 dollars, the 1991 FCI for each NFL team was identified and used as the baseline basket of goods and services (4 tickets, 4 Hot Dogs, 4 Soft Drinks, 2 Beers, 1 Parking, 2 Programs, and 2 Caps) (17).

Team Marketing Report’s (17) pricing data was collected utilizing every NFL Fan Cost Index report from 1991 to 2009. The NFL experienced both franchise relocations and team expansions between 1991 and 2009. Therefore, the study was limited to NFL teams that remained in the same market throughout this period. Each FCI component was then calculated into single unit prices (a single ticket, hot dog, beer, soft drink, parking space, program, and cap) and all beverage components were standardized to account for changes in serving sizes (soft drinks and beer were converted into per-ounce prices to account for some teams changing beverage cup sizes through the years).

Establishing each component’s average annual price change required calculating each year’s price change percentage. Then the geometric means of the annual price changes were calculated to determine the average annual price change for each FCI component for all NFL teams in the study. This allowed for the forecasting of the price of each FCI component for the future years of 2010 to 2019.

To determine the change in purchasing power of goods and services for fans of each team from 1991 to 2009, the inflation-adjusted cost of the 1991 FCI was used to determine the quantity of goods and services that could still be purchased in 2009 and into the future. For example, the NFL average 1991 FCI was $149. Once adjusted into 2008 dollars, the NFL average FCI for 1991 equals $236. The $236 figure was then used to determine the change in purchasing power over the years. All percent changes, then, are beyond the rate of inflation and all stated dollar figures are in 2008 dollars, which allows for a true “apples to apples” comparison over time.

For purposes of predicting the goods and services that could be purchased in 2019 with the same total expenditure, it was necessary to prioritize items to purchase. The highest priority was given to purchasing as many tickets as possible, to a maximum of four. The second priority, if money remained, was to purchase a parking space. Beyond that, the purchase of food was prioritized (hot dogs, followed by soft drinks and then beer). Finally, if money remained, it was allocated to programs and then caps. There was effort made to relate the purchase of food to a likely amount consumed based on the number of tickets purchased. However, the ultimate goal was to find a combination of goods and services with a total cost within a range of plus or minus $2 from the original 1991 cost for the complete FCI.

### Results

The data set included 24 NFL teams that remained in the same market from 1991 to 2009, along with Team Marketing Report’s calculated NFL average for all NFL teams. The NFL average FCI increased $176 from $236 in 1991 to $412 in 2009 (in 2008 dollars), representing a 75% price increase beyond inflation from 1991 to 2009 (Table 1).

The Dallas Cowboys had the largest change in FCI with an increase of 163% beyond inflation since 1991 (from $291 in 1991 to $764 in 2009). Seven of the 24 teams in the study had FCI increases of 100% or more beyond inflation (Dallas, San Diego, New England, Kansas City, New York Jets, Indianapolis, and New York Giants). Only four teams had FCI increases less than 50% beyond inflation (Philadelphia, Arizona, Buffalo, and San Francisco).

The second purpose of the study was to forecast future FCI prices to extrapolate future pricing conditions for fans if pricing trends continue. The NFL average FCI is projected to increase another 165% beyond inflation, to $626 by 2019 (Table 2). If trends continue, Dallas and New England are each projected to have 2019 FCIs over $1,000 (again, in 2008 dollars). Six additional teams are projected to be charging over $800 for all the components in the Fan Cost Index in 2019.

The NFL teams in the study with the highest and lowest changes in purchasing power were the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers (Table 3). In 1991, the cost adjusted for inflation was $291 for a family attending a Dallas game and paying for everything in the FCI basket. In 2009, the purchasing power of fans attending Dallas games had decreased to the point that the $291 would only allow the family to purchase one ticket to the game. By 2019, if past pricing trends continue, the Dallas Cowboys family of four will not be able to purchase any tickets to the Dallas Cowboys games with the money available from the adjusted 1991 FCI.

On the other end of the spectrum, the $312 it cost a San Francisco 49ers family to purchase a full basket of game day goods and services in 1991 would still be enough to purchase 4 tickets to a game in 2009. While the family of 49ers fans has lost purchasing power (they would no longer be able to purchase most of the product extensions; only parking and 1 soft drink), all four family members would still be able to attend the game. The forecast for 2019 suggested that the 49ers family would still be able to purchase three tickets, and minimal extensions.

For NFL fans who could afford the complete FCI in 1991, it was desirable to determine the tangible losses of goods and services from 1991 to 2009 (Table 4). In almost every case, the family would have to leave one or more family members out of the experience. For those who could still afford all the tickets, there was still a diminishment in the overall experience, as defined by loss of parking, food, programs, and caps.

Overall, seven teams in the study had their fans’ purchasing power decrease to the point they could only afford two of the original four tickets (Table 4). Thirteen teams had fan purchasing power decrease enough to reduce their FCI basket by one ticket. Beyond just access to the game, there was a loss of purchasing power for product extensions included in the original FCI basket (Table 4). For example, an average San Diego family could only afford to pay for two members of the family to attend the game and pay for parking and two hot dogs, but nothing else in the FCI basket. However, three NFL teams in the study had their fans’ purchasing power remain high enough to maintain the original level of four tickets to the game.

If pricing trends continue into 2019, the purchasing power of families will continue to diminish (Table 5). The findings show that the aforementioned Cowboys family would be the only team in the study that would have the price of a single ticket higher than the total inflation adjusted price of the FCI basket in 1991. Twelve teams would have fans experience price increases to the point that their families of four would only be able to purchase one ticket and varying amounts of product extensions. Nine teams would have fans experience price increase to the point that their families of four would only be able to purchase two tickets with varying amounts of product extensions.

### Discussion

The findings revealed a wide variance in the changes in purchasing power between NFL teams. Fans of the Dallas Cowboys have seen their purchasing power diminished severely with the completion of Cowboys Stadium. Cowboys fans experienced an 89.9% increase in average ticket prices from 2008 to 2009 as the team moved into the new stadium. The move increased Dallas’s overall Fan Cost Index by 74.2% between 2008 and 2009 (7). However, the new stadium alone did not cause the entire reduction in purchasing power fans have experienced since 1991. The Cowboys had several drastic increases in ticket prices in years prior to the opening of the new stadium, including a 25% increase in 2005 and another 27% increase in 2007 (17). As a result of price increases since 1991, the Cowboys were the only NFL team in the study to see a drop in purchasing power to the point where only one of the original four family members can experience the game live for a comparable cost. Conversely, three NFL teams (Buffalo, Philadelphia, and San Francisco) have managed to control prices closer to the rate of inflation, allowing purchasing power to remain relatively strong for fans.

Burton and Howard (4) argued that the large percentage of weekly income it would take for average fans to attend a sporting event in the late 1990s, was putting professional sports “beyond the reach of a vast majority of the general population” (p.42). However, the problem is worse today for many fans as Scarborough (15) research data showed 45% of avid NFL fans with household incomes of $50,000 or less. Therefore, a Dallas Cowboys family with a household income of $40,000 a year, who wanted to attend one game in 2009 and purchase the complete FCI basket, would have to spend an entire 40 hours worth of gross salary to afford the FCI. When considering net salary, it would take perhaps a week and a half of work to pay for the full FCI for a single Cowboys game.

### Conclusion

While all the teams and markets differ, the league as a whole should be mindful that the combination of the aging baby boomer population and the impact of increased ticket prices might alter the long-term health of the league if younger and lower- and middle-class fans continue to be relegated to their couches. In such an environment, tomorrow’s generation of fans could be raised strictly as consumers of the televised product. Loss of fans due to increased prices, and concern that this could happen to the NFL, should not be discounted. Conn’s (5) depiction of the erosion of younger fans in the England’s Premier League because of the extreme rise in ticket prices illustrated the consequences of pricing out younger less affluent fans. Such losses of a generation of fans should concern all professional sports leagues. It is possible to lose a large segment of spectators because they only watched the games on television and never had the chance to experience the fan culture located within the stadium. It is possible that in the future NFL teams could see similar losses should pricing trends continue, along with the ever-increasing entertainment alternatives that could siphon off the fans who have not had the live-game experience.

Avid fans have limited options to react to the price increases of NFL teams: 1) they can stop attending games altogether and become media-only fans; 2) they can devote considerably more discretionary income to maintain access to the sport they love, if they want the same game-day experience as in the past; or 3) they can dedicate money to tickets, to get a few family members into the game, but limit or omit the product extensions, which could alter the game day experience.

### Applications in Sport

If sport marketers applied Mullin, Hardy, and Sutton’s (12) Frequency Escalator to the current marketing practices of many NFL teams, it would appear that many teams are thoughtlessly rushing to push “corporate spectators” up the escalator. Unfortunately, they are knocking down and even pushing off the avid fans with lower incomes who have fought so desperately through the years to stay on the escalator by sacrificing more and more of their income every year.

Sport marketers and executives from all professional leagues need to continually monitor both the changing demographics of their fan base and the impact future pricing decisions have on all of their fans. Decision makers using only basic supply and demand pricing practices with the goal of yielding additional revenue in the short-term rarely account for consequences those decisions have on long-term goals and success. These short-term decisions could have a profound impact on the size of the fan base in the future. This could drastically influence the size of the return on investment if the owner wants to sell the team in the future.

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###Table 1. Price Difference of the NFL Fan Cost Index from 1991 to 2009

###Table 2. Projected Price Difference of the NFL Fan Cost Index from 1991 to 2019

###Table 3. Comparison of the Highest and Lowest Team Difference in the Game Day Basket of Goods and Services from 1991 to 2019

_* Dallas fans will no longer be able to afford a single ticket to a game using the original FCI amount of $291, therefore they would not have access to purchase the product extensions_

###Table 4. Difference in the Game Day Basket of Goods and Services from 1991 to 2009

###Table 5. Difference in the Game Day Basket of Goods and Services from 1991 to 2019

_* Dallas families will no longer be able to afford a single ticket to a game using the original FCI amount of $291, therefore they would not have access to purchase the product extensions_

### Corresponding Author
Jeffrey J. Fountain
H. Wayne Huizenga School of Business and Entrepreneurship
Nova Southeastern University
3301 College Avenue
Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33314
(954) 262-8129
<jeffjf@huizenga.nova.edu>

### Author Bios

Jeffrey J. Fountain and Peter S. Finley are both Assistant Professors of Sport and Recreation Management in the H. Wayne Huizenga School of Business and Entrepreneurship at Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale Florida.