Abstract
Six independent variables combined in a formula that explains 82.2 percent of the variance in attendance (r2 = .822) in all 271 college football bowl games that have been played in the past 10 years. This is despite the fact that during a recent explosion in new bowl games and the creation of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), attendance to these traditional post-season football exhibitions has varied from 5,494 for the 2004 Silicon Valley Football Classic to 94,392 for the 2001 Rose Bowl. These six variables, out of 11 that were tested, each showed a relationship to attendance that was statistically significant at the 0.01 alpha level (p > 0.01). They include the seating capacity of the stadium (Stadium), the average home game attendance of the participating teams (AHAtt), the age of each bowl game (Age), the winning percentages of the participating teams (Wpct.), the travel distance between the representative institutions and the sites of the bowl games (Distance) and the number of days that elapsed between the participating teams’ final regular season or conference championship game and the bowl game itself (Notice). When the researcher studied only the bowls that were at least six years of age (n = 194), where the attendance track record of the individual bowls could be used as an independent variable, a formula of five independent variables that explain 91 percent of the variance (r2d = .910) was developed. All five variables had a relationship with attendance that was statistically significant at the 0.01 alpha level (p > 0.01). The formula included the attendance average of each bowl game over the previous five years (FiveAtt), Stadium, Distance, Wpct and AHAtt.
Introduction
It would be difficult to find a decade in the 106-year history of college football bowl games in which more dramatic changes have occurred in the major college football postseason. The number of bowl games has increased more than 50 percent from 22 in 1998 to 34 in 2008. The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) has dramatically increased revenues for the elite-level bowl games, and payouts for their participants. The growth of conference championship games and other games being played on the first Saturday in December has decreased the amount of notice academic institutions and fans have in finding out which bowl games their teams will be participating.
Attendance has also taken on an added importance because the growth in number of non-BCS bowl games has created a “clutter” of bowl games on television, creating a potential for a saturated market.
While the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) does not have an official national championship event for its Division One Football Bowl Subdivision (D1-FBS), the fact that there has been only one bowl game a year that has had an effect on the national championship (in eight out of the past 10 years) makes new marketing approaches all the more necessary for even more bowl games. Bowls such as the Cotton Bowl, which helped determine the national champion in 1978 and hosted the No. 2-ranked team in 1984; the Holiday Bowl, which hosted the No. 1-ranked team in 1984; and the Citrus Bowl (now the Capital One Bowl), which hosted the United Press International’s (UPI) recognized national champion in 1991; were left out of the BCS when it formed in 1998.
The surge in bowl certification has also led to an increasing number of non-traditional bowl teams participating in bowl games. These teams have little or no track record of bowl attendance and fans that are not accustomed to making postseason bowl travel plans. In some cases, football programs that either did not even exist or play at the NCAA Division 1-A level 10 years before the BCS started have participated in non-BCS bowl games during the BCS era.
These facts all indicate a need to research bowl attendance data. The increase in the number of bowls means that 271 such games have been played during the BCS era, enough to create a valid sample for research purposes.
Review of Literature
Many studies have been conducted regarding spectator attitudes and preferences in sporting events, although most have been based on survey data as opposed to fan behavior. A need to study spectator attitudes and preferences based on behavior instead of surveys arises not only from the practicality of obtaining this data (the NCAA lists attendance figures for all bowl games in a record book stored in a PDF file on its website) but also because a ticket to a sporting event differs from other products and the decision to attend an athletic event or support its participants differs from other types of consumer decisions. These decisions are emotionally-based (Hardy et al, 2003), so depending on the rational mind in a survey and the limited number of responses that can be obtained through survey data creates some disadvantages compared to data based on spectator behavior.
Definition of Terms
- Bowl Championship Series (BCS)
- A partnership involving the Rose Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame and six collegiate athletic conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 10 and Southeastern) to produce an unofficial national championship game for D1-FBS college football and provide the best possible matchups in four major bowl games.
- Bowl Games
- Special exhibition, All-Star or championship games played at the end of the regular football season. For the purpose of this study, the term will be used in reference to games played after the regular season by D1-FBS teams. As of the end of the 2007 season, there are 32 such games played each year.
- National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA)
- The largest governing body of intercollegiate athletics in the United States.
- NCAA Division One
- The most competitive level of athletics in the NCAA, with a varying number of schools that usually exceeds 300.
- NCAA Division One Football Bowl Subdivision (D1-FBS)
- A body of Division One college football teams that play a season culminating in bowl games for 64 of its members. The membership number varies, but usually exceeds 100.
Methodology
Using bowl game attendance as the dependent variable, the researcher analyzed 11 independent variables that theoretically would have an effect on the number of people who attended a bowl game. For the second formula, the researcher analyzed the same 11 independent variables plus one additional independent variable. The researcher used stepwise linear regression analysis as a research method and Statistical Package of Social Science (SPSS) 16.0 as the instrument.
Selection of Subjects
The researcher collected data from all 271 bowls that took place during the BCS era, from December of 1998 to January of 2008. For the second formula, the researcher used data from only those bowl games that were at least six years old at the time they were played (n = 199).
Variables
Dependent
Attendance: The number of spectators who attended each individual bowl game, as reported in the NCAA Football Record Book (NCAA.com, see Table 1).
Table 1
Bowl Attendance
| Bowl | Attendance | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |
| Alamo | 60780 | 65380 | 60028 | 65232 | 50690 | 56226 | 65265 | 62000 | 65875 | 66166 |
| Aloha | 46451 | 40974 | 24397 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 38028 | 27902 | 33505 | 32412 | 40975 |
| BCS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 74628 | 79651 |
| Capital One | 63584 | 62011 | 66928 | 59693 | 66334 | 64565 | 70229 | 57221 | 60774 | 69748 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28562 | 21689 | 26482 | 28237 | 31470 | 40168 | 46554 |
| Chick-fil-A | 72876 | 73315 | 73614 | 71827 | 68330 | 75125 | 69332 | 65620 | 75406 | 74413 |
| Cotton | 72611 | 72723 | 63465 | 72955 | 70817 | 73928 | 75704 | 74222 | 66777 | 73114 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 25966 | 25621 | 30653 | 25742 | 40331 | 32517 |
| Fiesta | 80470 | 71526 | 75428 | 74118 | 77502 | 73425 | 73519 | 76196 | 73719 | 70016 |
| Gator | 70791 | 43416 | 68741 | 72202 | 73491 | 78892 | 70112 | 63780 | 67704 | 60243 |
| GMAC | N/A | 34200 | 40300 | 40139 | 40646 | 40620 | 40160 | 35422 | 38751 | 36932 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 31535 | 29005 | 39662 | 26254 | 43435 | 30467 |
| Holiday | 65354 | 57118 | 63278 | 60548 | 58717 | 61102 | 66222 | 65416 | 62395 | 64020 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 33899 | 53480 | 44687 | 51068 | 27235 | 37286 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 19664 | 29283 | 26203 | 23472 | 30446 | 23118 | 28516 | 30493 | 28652 | 27062 |
| Independence | 46862 | 49873 | 36974 | 45627 | 46096 | 49625 | 43000 | 41332 | 45054 | 47043 |
| Insight | 36147 | 35762 | 41813 | 40028 | 40533 | 42364 | 45917 | 43536 | 48391 | 48892 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26717 | 31455 |
| Las Vegas | 21429 | 28227 | 29113 | 30894 | 30324 | 25437 | 29062 | 40053 | 44615 | 40712 |
| Liberty | 52192 | 54866 | 58302 | 58968 | 55207 | 55989 | 58355 | 54894 | 56103 | 63816 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 73535 | 51236 | 73238 | 57937 | 52303 | 53126 |
| MicronPC.com | 44387 | 31089 | 28359 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 32206 | 44863 | 52911 | 44164 | 51872 | 51826 | 52552 | 50616 | 54113 | 60624 |
| Music City | 41248 | 59221 | 47119 | 46125 | 39183 | 55109 | 66089 | 40519 | 68024 | 68681 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 34111 | 30467 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 27004 | 19024 | 25184 | 27253 | 18338 | 24791 | 25146 |
| Oahu | 46451 | 40974 | 24187 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 67919 | 70461 | 76835 | 73640 | 75971 | 76739 | 77912 | 77773 | 74470 | 74111 |
| Outback | 66005 | 54059 | 65229 | 66249 | 65101 | 65372 | 62414 | 65881 | 65601 | 65601 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 32023 | 35258 |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 36842 | 29709 | 39129 |
| Rose | 93872 | 93731 | 94392 | 93781 | 86848 | 93849 | 93468 | 93986 | 93852 | 93923 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 30144 | 38241 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 26542 | 30456 | 10132 | 20126 | 5494 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 76503 | 79280 | 64407 | 77688 | 74269 | 79342 | 77349 | 74458 | 77781 | 74383 |
| Sun | 46612 | 48757 | 49093 | 47812 | 48917 | 49894 | 51288 | 50426 | 48732 | 49867 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 52210 | 62097 |
Source: NCAA
N/A (not applicable) means the bowl game did not exist during the indicated season.
Independent
For the whole group (n = 271)
Age of the bowl (Age): The number of times the bowl game has been played, including the year in question (Table 2). In 2006, the BCS stopped rotating its four bowls as being designated championship games and instead added a fifth bowl, the BCS Championship, on Jan. 8 each year to be hosted by one of the four BCS bowl committees. Two such games have been played during the period of this study, but the age of the BCS title game (1 and 2) would not be reflected in attendance. So in these particular games, the age of the host committee’s bowl game is also used as the age of the BCS Championship game. For example, the 2007 BCS title game was the first one of its kind, but since it was hosted by the Fiesta Bowl Committee, it is listed in this study as being the same age as the Fiesta Bowl (35).
Table 2
Age of the Bowls
| Current Bowls | Age (in 2007-’08) | Discontinued Bowls | Final Year | Age (in final year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose | 106 | Aloha | 2000-’01 | 19 |
| Orange | 73 | Houston | 2005-’06 | 6 |
| Sugar | 73 | Micron PC.com | 2000-’01 | 10 |
| Cotton | 71 | Silicon Valley | 2004-’05 | 5 |
| Sun | 71 | Oahu | 2000-’01 | 3 |
| Gator | 61 | Seattle | 2002-’03 | 2 |
| Capital One | 60 | |||
| Liberty | 48 | |||
| Chick-fil-A | 39 | |||
| Fiesta | 36 | |||
| Indy | 31 | |||
| Holiday | 29 | |||
| Outback | 21 | |||
| Insight | 18 | |||
| Champs Sports | 17 | |||
| Vegas | 15 | |||
| Alamo | 14 | |||
| Human | 11 | |||
| Motor | 11 | |||
| Music | 10 | |||
| GMAC | 9 | |||
| New O | 7 | |||
| Emerald | 6 | |||
| Hawaii | 6 | |||
| Meinecke Car Care | 6 | |||
| Armed | 5 | |||
| Poinsettia | 3 | |||
| BCS Championship* | 2 (35 and 73 in the study) | |||
| International | 2 | |||
| New Mexico | 2 | |||
| Papajohns.com | 2 | |||
| Texas | 2 | |||
*For the purpose of this study, the age of each BCS Championship game will be recorded as the same age as the BCS bowl hosting the event.
Average Home Attendance (AHAtt): The average number of spectators that attended the regular-season home games of the participating teams. The average home attendance for each team is averaged together for this variable (Table 3).
Table 3
Average Home Attendance
| Bowl | Average Home Attendance (averaged between two participating teams) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |
| Alamo | 47643.0 | 84813.0 | 55688.0 | 55383.0 | 63621.0 | 75292.0 | 75840.5 | 94200.0 | 79545.0 | 95562.0 |
| Aloha | 45336.0 | 38311.5 | 44969.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 32126.5 | 23594.0 | 29364.5 | 32321.5 | 63136.0 |
| BCS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 97752.5 | 98864.5 |
| Capital One | 81782.5 | 61890.5 | 96364.0 | 108375.5 | 95091.0 | 75327.5 | 80803.0 | 83356.0 | 77631.5 | 100326.0 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 49084.5 | 60325.5 | 46012.0 | 41942.5 | 64320.5 | 52425.0 | 56265.0 |
| Chick-fil-A | 64689.0 | 58061.5 | 65243.0 | 69016.0 | 76478.0 | 90558.5 | 73771.5 | 68445.0 | 79489.5 | 82717.0 |
| Cotton | 57412.5 | 67272.5 | 78927.5 | 68044.5 | 84680.0 | 50690.5 | 90571.0 | 65995.0 | 85053.5 | 64969.5 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51317.5 | 36617.5 | 34149.5 | 46571.5 | 72743.5 | 46318.5 |
| Fiesta | 93702.0 | 92284.0 | 56975.5 | 46700.5 | 86513.5 | 75990.0 | 42856.0 | 92906.0 | 57507.0 | 72629.0 |
| Gator | 60641.5 | 42517.0 | 65618.5 | 66101.5 | 65147.5 | 51720.5 | 69693.0 | 53058.0 | 54695.0 | 55867.5 |
| GMAC | N/A | 34163.0 | 30571.5 | 31976.5 | 32131.0 | 32589.5 | 29299.0 | 34858.0 | 22859.0 | 20309.5 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 35655.5 | 31299.0 | 28703.5 | 21769.0 | 45575.5 | 35937.5 |
| Holiday | 62051.0 | 59820.5 | 63654.5 | 77765.5 | 47513.0 | 58335.0 | 58421.0 | 71382.5 | 70151.5 | 74009.5 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 39252.5 | 55841.5 | 35099.5 | 39772.0 | 44552.0 | 38979.5 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 18925.0 | 30684.5 | 35604.0 | 50292.5 | 35955.0 | 37497.0 | 50635.5 | 34770.5 | 29318.0 | 43285.5 |
| Independence | 44674.0 | 60746.5 | 60268.5 | 63742.0 | 67509.5 | 57652.5 | 28630.0 | 66615.5 | 66636.0 | 71413.5 |
| Insight | 55735.5 | 46736.0 | 41444.0 | 44840.0 | 40431.5 | 50168.0 | 58564.5 | 47170.5 | 51540.5 | 38514.0 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 19499.0 | 28374.0 |
| Las Vegas | 15165.8 | 16350.0 | 18483.0 | 22080.2 | 26235.4 | 27997.4 | 28799.0 | 28966.0 | 31154.0 | 33898.2 |
| Liberty | 45323.0 | 26705.5 | 33633.0 | 50013.5 | 29137.0 | 31889.5 | 35515.0 | 31066.5 | 48770.0 | 46657.0 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 54330.5 | 59810.5 | 47824.0 | 45895.0 | 33275.0 | 35400.0 |
| MicronPC.com | 51571.5 | 45804.0 | 47050.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 32233.5 | 46929.5 | 24725.0 | 26924.0 | 31865.9 | 24823.5 | 31664.5 | 25442.0 | 21800.0 | 39048.5 |
| Music City | 60857.5 | 57248.5 | 50019.5 | 64580.0 | 51268.5 | 81844.5 | 64721.5 | 54909.0 | 70161.0 | 73645.5 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 23743.5 | 23380.0 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 21434.5 | 21665.5 | 28681.0 | 22074.0 | 23121.5 | 17785.0 | 22705.5 |
| Oahu | 58505.0 | 35576.0 | 70379.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 66644.0 | 97115.5 | 77953.0 | 64498.5 | 64300.0 | 70642.0 | 84880.5 | 93791.5 | 36998.5 | 56508.5 |
| Outback | 77134.5 | 74794.0 | 89830.5 | 93073.0 | 97880.5 | 77987.5 | 87557.0 | 80495.5 | 106678.0 | 92832.5 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 33695.0 | 28483.5 |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 31180.0 | 26348.5 | 38605.0 |
| Rose | 75568.5 | 63909.5 | 67897.0 | 62468.5 | 56617.5 | 94361.0 | 97059.5 | 87072.5 | 100753.0 | 71174.0 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 46609.5 | 39716.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 41500.5 | 58259.0 | 41144.7 | 47619.5 | 24140.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 75897.5 | 65622.0 | 71841.5 | 71843.5 | 84143.0 | 87088.0 | 74100.0 | 74494.0 | 86503.5 | 68130.0 |
| Sun | 44040.0 | 44689.0 | 72995.5 | 44611.5 | 63932.5 | 50924.5 | 63095.0 | 48372.5 | 48374.0 | 56007.5 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 43903.0 | 25486.5 |
Attendance Per Mile (APM): The Average Home Attendance of each team, divided by the number of miles between the bowl’s host city and the city where each academic institution is located, averaged together. An example is in Figure A.
2007 Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Indiana
Distance from Stillwater, Okla. (home of Oklahoma State University.) to Phoenix, Ariz. (site of the bowl) = 1085.64 miles
Oklahoma State’s Average Home Attendance = 40,024
Oklahoma State’s APM = 40,024/1085.65 = 36.87
Distance from Bloomington, Ind. (home of Indiana University) to Phoenix = 1,747 miles
Indiana’s Average Home Attendance = 37,004
Indiana’s APM = 21.18
2007 Insight Bowl’s APM = (36.87+21.18)/2 = 29.03
Figure A. Example of Attendance Per Mile (APM) Variable.
BCS Status (BCS): The variable that separates BCS bowls from non-BCS bowls, under the hypothesis that a BCS bowl will normally draw higher attendance. The value of “1” is assigned to BCS bowls while “0” is assigned to non-BCS bowls.
Championship Status (CStatus) — The status of a game as it pertains to the unofficial national championship of D1-FBS football. For this study, the BCS-designated national championship game is given a value of “1” and all other bowl games a value of “0” (Table 4).
Table 4
BCS Bowls
| Bowl | Year | Winning Team in Bold, Championship Games in Italics | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCS | 2006-’07 | Florida | Ohio State |
| BCS | 2007-’08 | LSU | Ohio State |
| Fiesta | 1998-’99 | Tennessee | Florida State |
| Fiesta | 1999-’00 | Nebraska | Tennessee |
| Fiesta | 2000-’01 | Oregon State | Notre Dame |
| Fiesta | 2001-’02 | Oregon | Colorado |
| Fiesta | 2002-’03 | Ohio State | Miami |
| Fiesta | 2003-’04 | Ohio State | Kansas State |
| Fiesta | 2004-’05 | Utah | Pittsburgh |
| Fiesta | 2005-’06 | Ohio State | Notre Dame |
| Fiesta | 2006-’07 | Boise State | Oklahoma |
| Fiesta | 2007-’08 | Oklahoma | West Virginia |
| Orange | 1998-’99 | Florida | Syracuse |
| Orange | 1999-’00 | Michigan | Alabama |
| Orange | 2000-’01 | Oklahoma | Florida State |
| Orange | 2001-’02 | Florida | Maryland |
| Orange | 2002-’03 | USC | Iowa |
| Orange | 2003-’04 | Miami | Florida State |
| Orange | 2004-’05 | USC | Oklahoma |
| Orange | 2005-’06 | Penn State | Florida State |
| Orange | 2006-’07 | Louisville | Wake Forest |
| Orange | 2007-’08 | Virginia Tech | Kansas |
| Rose | 1998-’99 | Wisconsin | UCLA |
| Rose | 1999-’00 | Wisconsin | Stanford |
| Rose | 2000-’01 | Washington | Purdue |
| Rose | 2001-’02 | Miami | Nebraska |
| Rose | 2002-’03 | Oklahoma | Washington State |
| Rose | 2003-’04 | USC | Michigan |
| Rose | 2004-’05 | Texas | Michigan |
| Rose | 2005-’06 | Texas | USC |
| Rose | 2006-’07 | USC | Michigan |
| Rose | 2007-’08 | USC | Illinois |
| Sugar | 1998-’99 | Ohio State | Texas A&M |
| Sugar | 1999-’00 | Florida State | Virginia Tech |
| Sugar | 2000-’01 | Miami | Florida |
| Sugar | 2001-’02 | LSU | Illinois |
| Sugar | 2002-’03 | Georgia | Florida State |
| Sugar | 2003-’04 | LSU | Oklahoma |
| Sugar | 2004-’05 | Auburn | Virginia Tech |
| Sugar | 2005-’06 | West Virginia | Georgia |
| Sugar | 2006-’07 | LSU | Notre Dame |
| Sugar | 2007-’08 | Georgia | Hawaii |
Distance (Distance): The number of miles between the bowl’s host city and the city where each participating team is located (Table 5). The travel distance of each team is averaged out for this variable. The distances were found through the internet using Mapquest.com for mainland bowls and Ask.com for the Aloha, O’ahu and Hawaii bowls.
Table 5
Distance
| Bowl | Mean of Two Teams’ Travel Distances in Miles | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |
| Alamo | 982.46 | 912.34 | 1,081.26 | 765.05 | 1,147.07 | 1,167.58 | 921.44 | 1,177.24 | 600.90 | 912.34 |
| Aloha | 2,930.00 | 3,807.00 | 4,000.50 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 849.07 | 1,003.34 | 388.53 | 774.47 | 1,205.70 |
| BCS Title Game | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,982.42 | 495.28 |
| Capital One | 1,117.34 | 631.92 | 823.29 | 901.23 | 732.99 | 746.85 | 975.12 | 863.40 | 1,196.24 | 631.92 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 783.90 | 985.59 | 937.58 | 828.90 | 1,198.63 | 952.28 | 1,264.36 |
| Chick-fil-A | 292.31 | 205.01 | 263.38 | 244.75 | 433.94 | 169.08 | 501.81 | 596.95 | 243.41 | 116.10 |
| Cotton | 375.48 | 264.93 | 669.21 | 261.56 | 319.94 | 401.79 | 513.02 | 466.01 | 671.07 | 468.80 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2,020.38 | 2,157.90 | 1,964.73 | 1,609.41 | 1,510.00 | 1,694.69 |
| Fiesta | 1,880.06 | 1,646.11 | 1,582.88 | 1,240.15 | 2,151.54 | 1,556.28 | 1,648.40 | 1,910.65 | 1,022.55 | 1,590.78 |
| Gator | 683.30 | 351.37 | 489.32 | 359.76 | 736.91 | 741.77 | 461.25 | 661.00 | 552.40 | 1,005.90 |
| GMAC | N/A | 717.02 | 362.91 | 794.15 | 700.53 | 689.82 | 649.35 | 1,068.07 | 489.05 | 811.33 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2,105.00 | 1,949.00 | 2,181.00 | 3,654.50 | 1,459.00 | 3,848.50 |
| Holiday | 989.72 | 1,415.66 | 1,141.56 | 1,280.59 | 970.32 | 1,257.22 | 769.09 | 1,175.80 | 952.31 | 835.25 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 923.12 | 179.86 | 470.37 | 1,011.63 | 943.21 | 626.77 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 1,232.12 | 940.64 | 612.92 | 2,106.12 | 698.79 | 1,845.16 | 1,547.59 | 1,331.75 | 1,633.05 | 1,448.64 |
| Independence | 460.90 | 381.80 | 309.81 | 584.59 | 564.92 | 445.68 | 818.13 | 696.13 | 414.47 | 735.66 |
| Insight | 1,738.43 | 1,801.57 | 1,798.01 | 1,777.19 | 1,690.28 | 1,423.95 | 1,571.16 | 1,225.81 | 1,226.59 | 1,416.23 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 439.50 | 502.67 |
| Las Vegas | 1,318.14 | 408.33 | 668.78 | 345.28 | 421.74 | 766.57 | 527.43 | 472.05 | 647.41 | 323.58 |
| Liberty | 1,003.56 | 723.58 | 766.93 | 997.44 | 817.06 | 944.98 | 1,137.04 | 1,161.31 | 588.30 | 471.04 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 324.03 | 359.91 | 504.73 | 377.72 | 651.57 | 437.13 |
| Micron PC.com | 406.00 | 1,151.93 | 1,293.62 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 349.84 | 1,010.91 | 297.73 | 157.79 | 385.69 | 191.29 | 368.26 | 466.09 | 359.43 | 246.14 |
| Music City | 331.14 | 531.73 | 416.63 | 709.39 | 706.60 | 462.30 | 565.14 | 714.33 | 287.00 | 353.53 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 524.47 | 511.44 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,026.25 | 684.29 | 477.72 | 334.72 | 287.86 | 330.37 | 609.61 |
| Oahu | 3,012.50 | 1,270.50 | 4,658.50 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 883.07 | 1,086.26 | 991.30 | 707.28 | 2,106.81 | 240.85 | 2,119.11 | 868.32 | 948.15 | 1,205.45 |
| Outback | 971.59 | 764.38 | 756.62 | 756.62 | 649.45 | 701.57 | 899.16 | 701.57 | 887.37 | 997.65 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 587.35 | 352.64 |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,924.81 | 1,675.89 | 1,730.69 |
| Rose | 990.34 | 1,163.52 | 1,617.19 | 2,117.25 | 1,231.63 | 1,122.54 | 1,806.68 | 695.08 | 1,122.54 | 1,004.08 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,757.49 | 1,574.78 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 759.95 | 1,260.29 | 1,296.04 | 245.97 | 2,267.72 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 676.85 | 610.31 | 701.90 | 438.10 | 463.21 | 395.50 | 599.06 | 344.90 | 535.07 | 2,375.18 |
| Sun | 706.00 | 1,521.90 | 1,117.54 | 1,509.80 | 1,598.51 | 1,521.90 | 949.15 | 1,151.98 | 1,384.94 | 1,693.86 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,172.12 | 131.63 |
Source of data: Mapquest.com and ask.com. N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.
Improved Winning Percentage (Impct): The regular season winning percentage (including a conference championship game, when applicable) of each team minus its winning percentage from the previous season (including a bowl game, when applicable). The two scores are averaged for this variable (Figure B). It is designed to measure how a team performed compared to expectation, something that would theoretically affect the enthusiasm of the fans and influence their decision to travel.
Improved Winning Percentage:
Regular Season Winning Percentage – Previous year’s total winning percentage
2007-’08 BCS Championship Game: Ohio State vs. LSU
Ohio State
2007 Regular Season = 11-1 = .917
2006-’07 Season = 12-1 = .923
Improved Winning Percentage = .917-.923 = -.006
LSU
2007 Regular Season = 11-2 = .846
2006-’07 Season = 11-2 = .846
Improved Winning Percentage = .846 – .846 = 0
2007-’08 BCS Championship Improved Winning Percentage:
(-.006+0)/2 = -.003
Figure B. Example of Improved Winning Percentage
Market Strength (Market): A measurement of the support for college football in a participating team’s area based on the number of D1-FBS institutions are located in the same state as the participating team. For example, a team from Texas would have a market strength rating of 10 because there are 10 D1-FBS teams in the state of Texas (Table 6). A team from Oklahoma would have a market strength rating of three for the same reason. Therefore, a bowl game played between the University of Tulsa and Texas A&M would have a market strength rating of 6.5.
Table 6
Market Strength
| Bowl | Market Strength (averaged between the two participating teams) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |
| Alamo | 3.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 |
| Aloha | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| BCS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Capital One | 3.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.0 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Chick-fil-A | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Cotton | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiesta | 5.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Gator | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
| GMAC | N/A | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Holiday | 1.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 6.0 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 7.5 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 2.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Independence | 6.5 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Insight | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| Las Vegas | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Liberty | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| MicronPC.com | 6.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 2.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Music City | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.5 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 |
| Oahu | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Outback | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| Rose | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.5 | 3.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 9.0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| Sun | 8.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.5 | 10.0 |
Sources: U.S. Department of Education N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.
Notice (Notice): The number of days between the date of a team’s last regular season or conference championship game and the date of its bowl game. The notice for the two teams is averaged together for this variable. The theory is that the longer notice fans have, the more likely they are to travel to a bowl game (Table 7).
Table 7
Notice
| Bowl | Notice (averaged between the two participating teams) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |
| Alamo | 31.0 | 35.0 | 33.5 | 35.0 | 28.0 | 34.0 | 35.5 | 36.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 |
| Aloha | 31.0 | 31.5 | 30.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 20.5 | 30.0 | 27.0 | 28.5 | 37.5 |
| BCS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 44 | 44.0 |
| Capital One | 33.5 | 35.0 | 37.0 | 31.0 | 39.0 | 33.0 | 39.0 | 41.0 | 37.0 | 42.0 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 22.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| Chick-fil-A | 33.0 | 37.5 | 34.5 | 30.0 | 31.0 | 37.5 | 34.0 | 30.5 | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| Cotton | 31.0 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 38.5 | 33.0 | 38.5 | 32.0 | 44.0 | 37.0 | 35.0 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 31.0 | 39.5 | 33.0 | 36.5 | 28.5 | 30.5 |
| Fiesta | 37.0 | 42.0 | 40.5 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 35.0 | 40.5 | 33.5 | 32.0 |
| Gator | 33.5 | 31.5 | 40.5 | 31.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 39.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 41.5 |
| GMAC | N/A | 29.0 | 26.0 | 22.5 | 14.5 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 37.5 | 39.5 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 24.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 25.0 | 25.5 | 29.5 |
| Holiday | 33.0 | 39.0 | 38.0 | 30.5 | 31.0 | 35.0 | 29.5 | 36.5 | 35.0 | 31.0 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 36.0 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 31.0 | 28.5 | 42.0 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 34.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 34.0 | 38.0 | 38.5 | 38.0 | 36.5 | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| Independence | 37.5 | 35.0 | 37.5 | 30.5 | 28.5 | 32.5 | 26.0 | 36.0 | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| Insight | 32.0 | 35.0 | 37.0 | 35.0 | 29.5 | 30.5 | 33.5 | 31.5 | 41.0 | 41.0 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 43.0 | 39.5 |
| Las Vegas | 24.5 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 31.0 | 21.5 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 33.0 | 27.0 | 21.0 |
| Liberty | 30.5 | 37.5 | 42.0 | 30.5 | 31.0 | 36.0 | 30.5 | 28.5 | 31.0 | 32.0 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28.0 | 28.0 | 36.5 | 31.5 | 32.5 | 35.0 |
| MicronPC.com | 27.5 | 40.0 | 36.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 25.5 | 30.5 | 32.0 | 28.5 | 22.5 | 28.0 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 28.5 | 32.0 |
| Music City | 34.5 | 35.5 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 30.0 | 39.0 | 44.5 | 37.5 | 34.0 | 37.0 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 24.0 | 17.5 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| Oahu | 27.0 | 31.5 | 29.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 38.5 | 35.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 40.0 | 33.0 | 31.0 | 38.0 | 31.0 | 36.5 |
| Outback | 37.5 | 38.0 | 44.0 | 41.5 | 36.0 | 36.5 | 38.5 | 40.0 | 41.0 | 38.0 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28.0 | 28.0 |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26.0 | 21.0 | 22.5 |
| Rose | 34.0 | 42.0 | 44.0 | 37.0 | 25.0 | 33.0 | 39.0 | 32.5 | 37.0 | 38.0 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26.0 | 33.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 39.5 | 30.0 | 28.5 | 34.5 | 40.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 34.5 | 42.0 | 34.5 | 32.0 | 28.5 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 39.5 | 34.5 |
| Sun | 36.5 | 41.0 | 37.5 | 37.0 | 38.0 | 42.5 | 38.0 | 34.0 | 30.5 | 33.5 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 33.0 | 34.0 |
Source of data: Division 1A Historical Scores, jhowell.net. N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.
November Winning Percentage (Novpct): The winning percentage of a team in games played during November or the first week of December (Table 8).
Table 8
November Winning Percentage
| Bowl | November Winning Percentage (averaged between the two participating teams) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |
| Alamo | 0.875 | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.625 | 0.425 | 0.375 | 0.500 | 0.583 | 0.167 | 0.500 |
| Aloha | 0.500 | 0.666 | 0.333 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.875 | 0.500 | 0.625 | 0.458 | 0.625 |
| BCS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.000 | 0.733 |
| Capital One | 0.625 | 0.750 | 0.666 | 0.667 | 0.875 | 0.675 | 1.000 | 0.667 | 0.800 | 0.667 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.875 | 0.750 | 0.292 | 0.583 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.533 |
| Chick-fil-A | 0.583 | 0.583 | 0.833 | 0.576 | 0.800 | 0.875 | 0.750 | 0.775 | 0.833 | 0.666 |
| Cotton | 0.633 | 0.500 | 0.875 | 0.750 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.417 | 0.500 | 0.708 | 0.775 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.433 | 0.500 | 0.833 | 0.583 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| Fiesta | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.775 |
| Gator | 0.875 | 0.625 | 0.583 | 0.500 | 0.375 | 1.000 | 0.500 | 0.750 | 0.600 | 0.666 |
| GMAC | N/A | 0.833 | 0.500 | 0.567 | 0.650 | 0.750 | 0.708 | 0.583 | 0.775 | 0.900 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.567 | 0.550 | 0.650 | 0.800 | 0.650 | 0.750 |
| Holiday | 0.833 | 0.666 | 0.833 | 0.625 | 0.875 | 0.750 | 0.833 | 0.875 | 0.417 | 0.583 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 0.500 | 0.333 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.708 | 0.833 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 1.000 | 0.750 | 0.833 | 0.500 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.750 | 0.708 | 0.500 | 0.625 |
| Independence | 0.375 | 0.542 | 0.576 | 0.625 | 0.250 | 0.650 | 0.708 | 0.500 | 0.125 | 0.167 |
| Insight | 0.667 | 0.500 | 0.642 | 0.708 | 0.625 | 0.575 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.833 | 0.458 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.583 | 0.583 |
| Las Vegas | 0.875 | 0.666 | 0.625 | 0.750 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| Liberty | 0.875 | 1.000 | 0.833 | 0.775 | 0.666 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.576 | 0.750 | 0.833 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.750 | 0.550 | 0.708 | 0.675 | 0.750 | 0.500 |
| MicronPC.com | 0.708 | 1.000 | 0.500 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 1.000 | 0.667 | 0.875 | 0.750 | 0.800 | 0.550 | 0.708 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.300 |
| Music City | 0.500 | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.542 | 0.833 | 0.417 | 0.167 | 0.500 | 0.542 | 0.417 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.467 | 0.500 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.708 | 0.917 | 0.875 | 0.600 | 0.500 | 0.900 | 0.750 |
| Oahu | 0.667 | 0.708 | 0.333 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 0.708 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.868 | 1.000 | 0.675 | 1.000 | 0.625 | 0.800 | 0.875 |
| Outback | 0.583 | 0.417 | 0.333 | 0.708 | 0.750 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.666 | 0.583 | 0.733 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.750 | 0.750 |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.542 | 0.833 | 0.833 |
| Rose | 0.708 | 1.000 | 0.750 | 0.833 | 0.708 | 1.000 | 0.917 | 1.000 | 0.750 | 1.000 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.600 | 0.292 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 0.875 | 0.700 | 0.750 | 0.400 | 0.750 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 0.708 | 1.000 | 0.875 | 1.000 | 0.800 | 0.900 | 1.000 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 1.000 |
| Sun | 0.666 | 1.000 | 0.667 | 0.433 | 0.708 | 0.708 | 0.666 | 0.583 | 0.567 | 0.425 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.583 | 0.750 |
Stadium Size (Stadium): The seating capacity of the stadium when used for football games (Table 9).
Table 9
Stadiums
| Bowl | Years | Stadium | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alamo | 1993-Present | Alamo Dome | 65000 |
| Aloha | 1982-2000 | Aloha Stadium | 50000 |
| Armed Forces | 2003-Present | Amon G. Carter Stadium | 43000 |
| BCS | 2006-’07 | University of Phoenix Stadium | 73000 |
| BCS | 2007-’08 | Louisiana Superdome | 72500 |
| Capital One | 1986-Present | Florida Citrus Bowl | 65438 |
| Champs Sports | 2002-Present | Florida Citrus Bowl | 65438 |
| Chick-fil-A | 1993-Present | Georgia Dome | 71990 |
| Cotton | 1938-Present | Cotton Bowl | 71252 |
| Emerald | 2002-Present | AT&T Park | 38437 |
| Fiesta | 1971-’06 | Sun Devil Stadium | 73397 |
| Fiesta | 2007-Present | University of Phoenix Stadium | 73000 |
| Gator | 1997-Present | Jacksonville Municipal Stadium | 77000 |
| GMAC | 1999-Present | Ladd-Peebles Stadium | 40048 |
| Hawaii | 2002-Present | Aloha Stadium | 50000 |
| Holiday | 1978-Present | Qualcomm Stadium | 66000 |
| Houston | 2000-2005 | Reliant Stadium | 69500 |
| Humanitarian | 1997-Present | Bronco Stadium | 30000 |
| Independence | 1976-Present | Independence Stadium | 48947 |
| Insight | 1989-’99 | Arizona Stadium | 57803 |
| Insight | 2000-’05 | Bank One Ballpark | 42915 |
| Insight | 2006-Present | Sun Devil Stadium | 73397 |
| International | 2007-Present | Rogers Center | 53506 |
| Las Vegas | 1992-Present | Sam Boyd Stadium | 40000 |
| Liberty | 1965-Present | Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium | 62598 |
| Meinecke | 2002-Present | Bank of America Stadium | 73298 |
| MicronPC.com | 1996-2001 | Joe Robbie Stadium | 77823 |
| Motor City | 1997-’01 | Pontiac Silverdome | 80368 |
| Motor City | 2002-Present | Ford Field | 65000 |
| Music City | 1998-Present | LP Field | 68000 |
| New Mexico | 2006-Present | University Stadium | 38634 |
| New Orleans | 2001-Present | Louisiana Superdome | 72500 |
| Oahu | 1998-’00 | Aloha Stadium | 50000 |
| Orange | 1996-Present | Dolphin Stadium | 77823 |
| Outback | 1998-Present | Raymond James Stadium | 65500 |
| Papajohns.com | 2006-Present | Legion Field | 72000 |
| Poinsettia | 2005-Present | Qualcomm Stadium | 66000 |
| Rose | 1943-Present | Rose Bowl | 91887 |
| Seattle | 2001-’02 | Seahawks Stadium | 67000 |
| Silicon Valley | 2000-’04 | Spartan Stadium | 30000 |
| Sugar | 1975-’05, 2007-Present | Louisiana Superdome | 72500 |
| Sugar | 2006 | Georgia Dome | 71990 |
| Sun | 1963-Present | Sun Bowl Stadium | 50426 |
| Texas | 2006-Present | Reliant Stadium | 69500 |
Data is from NCAA.com. N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.
Winning Percentage (Wpct) — The percentage of games won by each team in the regular season (including conference championship games, when applicable), averaged together (Table 10).
Table 10
Winning Percentage (averaged between the two participating teams)
| Bowl | 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alamo | 0.792 | 0.739 | 0.773 | 0.591 | 0.615 | 0.708 | 0.636 | 0.636 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| Aloha | 0.682 | 0.545 | 0.545 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.920 | 0.545 | 0.591 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| BCS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.962 | 0.881 |
| Capital One | 0.784 | 0.784 | 0.739 | 0.780 | 0.708 | 0.760 | 0.818 | 0.826 | 0.843 | 0.708 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.591 | 0.576 | 0.542 | 0.545 | 0.610 | 0.671 | 0.676 |
| Chick-fil-A | 0.773 | 0.682 | 0.727 | 0.576 | 0.718 | 0.750 | 0.682 | 0.826 | 0.718 | 0.667 |
| Cotton | 0.697 | 0.626 | 0.748 | 0.735 | 0.833 | 0.750 | 0.693 | 0.576 | 0.763 | 0.756 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.679 | 0.583 | 0.727 | 0.591 | 0.542 | 0.583 |
| Fiesta | 0.958 | 1.000 | 0.864 | 0.871 | 1.000 | 0.810 | 0.864 | 0.826 | 0.923 | 0.833 |
| Gator | 0.818 | 0.697 | 0.864 | 0.682 | 0.769 | 0.708 | 0.818 | 0.576 | 0.763 | 0.708 |
| GMAC | N/A | 0.727 | 0.773 | 0.689 | 0.708 | 0.837 | 0.727 | 0.727 | 0.654 | 0.679 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.676 | 0.599 | 0.610 | 0.697 | 0.676 | 0.708 |
| Holiday | 0.833 | 0.773 | 0.818 | 0.780 | 0.724 | 0.792 | 0.682 | 0.746 | 0.750 | 0.792 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | 0.610 | 0.591 | 0.583 | 0.625 | 0.655 | 0.773 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | 0.682 | 0.693 | 0.773 | 0.591 | 0.728 | 0.583 | 0.727 | 0.739 | 0.583 | 0.625 |
| Independence | 0.545 | 0.636 | 0.576 | 0.591 | 0.542 | 0.666 | 0.606 | 0.591 | 0.500 | 0.500 |
| Insight | 0.682 | 0.636 | 0.682 | 0.648 | 0.667 | 0.641 | 0.545 | 0.591 | 0.542 | 0.542 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.625 | 0.583 |
| Las Vegas | 0.591 | 0.697 | 0.564 | 0.591 | 0.561 | 0.625 | 0.545 | 0.591 | 0.708 | 0.667 |
| Liberty | 0.846 | 0.727 | 0.818 | 0.875 | 0.818 | 0.784 | 0.955 | 0.576 | 0.676 | 0.676 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.683 | 0.625 | 0.636 | 0.591 | 0.750 | 0.667 |
| MicronPC.com | 0.682 | 0.636 | 0.591 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | 0.777 | 0.864 | 0.610 | 0.727 | 0.679 | 0.635 | 0.652 | 0.564 | 0.638 | 0.599 |
| Music City | 0.682 | 0.545 | 0.591 | 0.682 | 0.638 | 0.583 | 0.545 | 0.591 | 0.667 | 0.583 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.583 | 0.583 |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.500 | 0.561 | 0.708 | 0.591 | 0.545 | 0.583 | 0.583 |
| Oahu | 0.731 | 0.652 | 0.591 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 0.773 | 0.826 | 0.958 | 0.864 | 0.875 | 0.826 | 1.000 | 0.788 | 0.881 | 0.881 |
| Outback | 0.682 | 0.636 | 0.682 | 0.682 | 0.576 | 0.708 | 0.818 | 0.682 | 0.739 | 0.760 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.625 | 0.667 |
| Poinsettia | 0.591 | 0.667 | 0.708 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rose | 0.909 | 0.773 | 0.818 | 0.958 | 0.840 | 0.875 | 0.864 | 1.000 | 0.875 | 0.792 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.701 | 0.542 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | 0.682 | 0.696 | 0.599 | 0.558 | 0.682 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 0.878 | 1.000 | 0.839 | 0.830 | 0.808 | 0.923 | 0.917 | 0.871 | 0.833 | 0.917 |
| Sun | 0.606 | 0.727 | 0.606 | 0.682 | 0.500 | 0.708 | 0.682 | 0.576 | 0.679 | 0.708 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.708 | 0.583 |
For Bowl games that are more than five years old (n = 194)
Five-year Average Attendance (FiveAtt) — The average attendance of a bowl game for the past five years (Table 11).
Table 11
Five-year Average Attendance
| Bowl | 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 |
| Alamo | 53129.60 | 56142.40 | 60397.20 | 59483.40 | 61394.40 | 60422.00 | 59511.20 | 59488.20 | 59882.60 | 60011.20 |
| Aloha | 43592.00 | 44080.40 | 43302.80 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Armed Forces | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| BCS* | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 74872.20 | 76662.60 |
| Capital One | 70171.00 | 68396.60 | 66559.80 | 65786.00 | 65031.20 | 63710.00 | 63906.20 | 65549.80 | 63608.40 | 63824.60 |
| Champs Sports | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 62519.00 | 65549.80 |
| Chick-fil-A | 66795.40 | 68687.40 | 70370.00 | 70927.80 | 72568.80 | 71992.40 | 72442.20 | 71645.60 | 70046.80 | 70762.60 |
| Cotton | 65886.00 | 66437.20 | 66938.20 | 67988.40 | 68193.80 | 70514.20 | 70777.60 | 71373.80 | 73525.20 | 72289.60 |
| Emerald | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 29662.60 |
| Fiesta | 72114.80 | 73755.00 | 73266.60 | 72379.40 | 74181.80 | 75808.80 | 74399.80 | 74798.40 | 74952.00 | 74872.20 |
| Gator | 56165.20 | 56882.40 | 53125.60 | 57833.40 | 61853.20 | 65728.20 | 67348.40 | 72687.60 | 71695.40 | 70795.80 |
| GMAC | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 39181.00 | 40373.00 | 39397.40 | 39119.80 |
| Hawaii | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 33978.20 |
| Holiday | 53624.40 | 56273.60 | 55806.60 | 58252.00 | 59411.80 | 61003.00 | 60152.60 | 61973.40 | 62401.00 | 62770.40 |
| Houston | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 42073.80 | N/A | N/A |
| Humanitarian | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 24655.50 | 25813.60 | 26504.40 | 26351.00 | 27209.00 | 28245.00 |
| Independence | 40344.20 | 42952.80 | 47479.00 | 45106.80 | 45959.00 | 45086.40 | 45639.00 | 44264.40 | 45136.00 | 45021.40 |
| Insight | 45341.60 | 42756.00 | 40884.00 | 41045.80 | 40627.00 | 38856.60 | 40100.00 | 42131.00 | 42475.60 | 44148.20 |
| International | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Las Vegas | 15165.80 | 16350.00 | 18483.00 | 22080.20 | 26235.40 | 27997.40 | 28799.00 | 28966.00 | 31154.00 | 33898.20 |
| Liberty | 40229.40 | 46448.40 | 50765.60 | 52946.40 | 54907.40 | 55907.00 | 56666.40 | 57364.20 | 56682.60 | 56109.60 |
| Meinecke | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 61649.80 |
| MicronPC.com | 39691.40 | 40865.60 | 36916.80 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Motor City | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 43496.80 | 45203.20 | 49127.20 | 50665.00 | 50206.00 | 52195.80 |
| Music City | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 46579.20 | 49351.40 | 50725.00 | 49405.00 | 53784.80 |
| New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| New Orleans | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 23360.60 | 22918.00 |
| Oahu | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Orange | 74557.20 | 71833.80 | 69575.40 | 70502.80 | 72571.40 | 72965.20 | 74729.20 | 76219.40 | 76407.00 | 76573.00 |
| Outback | 57864.60 | 60535.80 | 59070.80 | 59054.00 | 61671.60 | 63328.60 | 63202.00 | 64873.00 | 65003.40 | 64873.80 |
| Papajohns.com | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Poinsettia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rose | 101088.00 | 99615.00 | 97912.00 | 96770.00 | 95399.00 | 92525.00 | 92520.00 | 92468.00 | 92386.00 | 92401.00 |
| Seattle | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Silicon Valley | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sugar | 73515.40 | 73728.60 | 74339.80 | 73164.60 | 73033.40 | 74429.40 | 74997.20 | 74611.00 | 76621.20 | 76639.80 |
| Sun | 47080.20 | 47633.00 | 47262.00 | 47257.40 | 48275.60 | 48238.20 | 48894.60 | 49400.80 | 49667.40 | 49851.40 |
| Texas | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
*Figures are based on last five bowls hosted by the local committee
Data source: NCAA.com
N/A (not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.
Results
When all bowl games (n=271) were counted, six variables combined to explain 82.2 percent of the variance in attendance (r2d = .822). The variables were: Seating Capacity (Stadium), Age of the bowl (Age), Average Home Attendance of the participants (AHAtt), number of miles in travel between the location of the institutions and the bowl games (Distance), and the number of days elapsed from the end of the regular season or conference championship game to the bowl game itself (Notice), as shown in Table 12.
Table 12
Model Summary
| Model | R | r2 | Adjusted r2 | Std. Error of the Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | .743a | .552 | .551 | 12822.102 |
| 2 | .841b | .707 | .704 | 10399.231 |
| 3 | .884c | .782 | .779 | 8983.648 |
| 4 | .897d | .804 | .801 | 8524.124 |
| 5 | .903e | .816 | .813 | 8279.997 |
| 6 | .907f | .822 | .818 | 8156.106 |
| a. Predictors: (Constant), Stadium | ||||
| b. Predictors: (Constant), Stadium, Age | ||||
| c. Predictors: (Constant), Stadium, Age, AHAtt | ||||
| d. Predictors: (Constant), Stadium, Age, AHAtt, Wpct | ||||
| e. Predictors: (Constant), Stadium, Age, AHAtt, Wpct, Distance | ||||
| f. Predictors: (Constant), Stadium, Age, AHAtt, Wpct, Distance, Notice | ||||
Each variable had a relationship to attendance that was statistically significant at the 0.01 alpha level (p > 0.01), as noted in Table 13.
Table 13
Coefficients and Relationships
| Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Std. Error | Beta | ||||
| 1 | (Constant) | -5233.704 | 3280.305 | -1.595 | .112 | |
| Stadium | .944 | .052 | .743 | 18.214 | .000 | |
| 2 | (Constant) | 4910.494 | 2794.302 | 1.757 | .080 | |
| Stadium | .636 | .049 | .501 | 12.887 | .000 | |
| Age | 318.709 | 26.845 | .461 | 11.872 | .000 | |
| 3 | (Constant) | -2534.098 | 2535.494 | -.999 | .318 | |
| Stadium | .527 | .044 | .415 | 11.947 | .000 | |
| Age | 237.622 | 24.682 | .344 | 9.627 | .000 | |
| AHAtt | .294 | .031 | .327 | 9.598 | .000 | |
| 4 | (Constant) | -18954.895 | 3822.348 | -4.959 | .000 | |
| Stadium | .485 | .043 | .382 | 11.401 | .000 | |
| Age | 190.531 | 24.920 | .276 | 7.646 | .000 | |
| AHAtt | .270 | .029 | .301 | 9.216 | .000 | |
| Wpct | 30760.395 | 5564.072 | .184 | 5.528 | .000 | |
| 5 | (Constant) | -16058.380 | 3779.075 | -4.249 | .000 | |
| Stadium | .448 | .042 | .353 | 10.583 | .000 | |
| Age | 189.036 | 24.209 | .274 | 7.808 | .000 | |
| AHAtt | .271 | .029 | .302 | 9.515 | .000 | |
| Wpct | 34305.556 | 5473.019 | .205 | 6.268 | .000 | |
| Distance | -3.142 | .764 | -.112 | -4.113 | .000 | |
| 6 | (Constant) | -24353.011 | 4626.876 | -5.263 | .000 | |
| Stadium | .455 | .042 | .358 | 10.885 | .000 | |
| Age | 178.672 | 24.093 | .259 | 7.416 | .000 | |
| AHAtt | .238 | .030 | .265 | 7.904 | .000 | |
| Wpct | 34631.879 | 5392.212 | .207 | 6.423 | .000 | |
| Distance | -3.240 | .753 | -.115 | -4.303 | .000 | |
| Notice | 299.769 | 99.308 | .089 | 3.019 | .003 | |
Dependent Variable: Attendance
So a formula that would explain the variance in bowl attendance would look something like this:
S = Seating Capacity
A = Age of the bowl
T = Average Home Attendance of the Participating teams (The sum Average Home Attendance of each team divided by two)
W = Winning Percentage (the sum of the regular season winning percentages of the two participating teams, including conference championship games when applicable, divided by two).
D = Travel distance (the sum of the travel distance between each participating institution’s home city and the city hosting the bowl game, divided by two)
N = Notice (the sum of the number of days between the last regular season game or conference championship game of each team and the bowl game, divided by two)
Bowl Attendance = .455S + 172.672A + 34631.879W – 3.24D + 299.769N – 24353.011.
On bowls that were at least six years old (n = 194), the five-year attendance average was included as an independent variable. Five variables; Five Year Average Attendance (FiveAtt, Travel Distance (Distance), Winning Percentage (Wpct), Average Home Attendance (AHAtt), and Seating Capacity (Stadium); combined to explain 91 percent of the variance in attendance (r2d = .910), as can be observed in Table 14.
Table 14
Model Summary Bowls that are at least Six Years Old
| Model | R | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAR00021 > 5 (Selected) | r2 | Adjusted r2 | Std. Error of the Estimate | |
| 1 | .939a | .883 | .882 | 5893.063 |
| 2 | .946b | .894 | .893 | 5604.919 |
| 3 | .949c | .901 | .899 | 5451.683 |
| 4 | .952d | .906 | .904 | 5301.487 |
| 5 | .954e | .910 | .908 | 5202.987 |
| a. Predictors: (Constant), FiveAtt | ||||
| b. Predictors: (Constant), FiveAtt, Distance | ||||
| c. Predictors: (Constant), FiveAtt, Distance, Wpct | ||||
| d. Predictors: (Constant), FiveAtt, Distance, Wpct, AHAtt | ||||
| e. Predictors: (Constant), FiveAtt, Distance, Wpct, AHAtt, Stadium | ||||
As in the previous formula, all variables had a relationship with attendance that was statistically significant (Table 1) at the 0.01 alpha level (p < 0.01).
Table 15
Coefficients and Relationships for bowls at least six years old.
| Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | |||
| B | Std. Error | Beta | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | (Constant) | 6456.892 | 1446.943 | 4.462 | .000 | ||
| FiveAtt | .917 | .024 | .939 | 37.981 | .000 | ||
| 2 | (Constant) | 9579.045 | 1533.840 | 6.245 | .000 | ||
| FiveAtt | .913 | .023 | .935 | 39.696 | .000 | ||
| Distance | -2.996 | .650 | -.109 | -4.610 | .000 | ||
| 3 | (Constant) | 2699.321 | 2491.405 | 1.083 | .280 | ||
| FiveAtt | .846 | .029 | .867 | 28.691 | .000 | ||
| Distance | -3.401 | .643 | -.123 | -5.290 | .000 | ||
| Wpct | 15344.128 | 4450.253 | .105 | 3.448 | .001 | ||
| 4 | (Constant) | 537.570 | 2502.378 | .215 | .830 | ||
| FiveAtt | .788 | .033 | .807 | 23.629 | .000 | ||
| Distance | -3.253 | .627 | -.118 | -5.190 | .000 | ||
| Wpct | 15823.608 | 4329.875 | .108 | 3.655 | .000 | ||
| AHAtt | .082 | .024 | .097 | 3.452 | .001 | ||
| 5 | (Constant) | -3309.442 | 2798.385 | -1.183 | .238 | ||
| FiveAtt | .690 | .047 | .707 | 14.603 | .000 | ||
| Distance | -2.909 | .627 | -.105 | -4.641 | .000 | ||
| Wpct | 15173.014 | 4255.479 | .104 | 3.566 | .000 | ||
| AHAtt | .090 | .023 | .106 | 3.847 | .000 | ||
| Stadium | .142 | .050 | .117 | 2.868 | .005 | ||
The formula for bowls that are at least six years old would include:
S = Seating Capacity
T = Average Home Attendance of the Participating teams (The sum Average Home Attendance of each team divided by two)
W = Winning Percentage (the sum of the regular season winning percentages of the two participating teams, including conference championship games when applicable, divided by two).
D = Travel distance (the sum of the travel distance between each participating institution’s home city and the city hosting the bowl game, divided by two)
F = Average attendance over the past five years.
Attendance = 0.690F – 2.909D + 15173.014W + 0.09T + .142S – 3309.442
Discussion
Bowl committees will publicly state that they invite the most deserving teams more so than those that will bring the highest attendance. It is easy to see why the latter option would be more tempting. On table 12, where all bowls are included, it shows that average home attendance accounts for 7.5 percent of the variance in bowl attendance, while winning percentage only accounts for 2.2 percent. This can be figured from the r2d numbers on step 2, a formula that does not include Average Home Attendance but explains 70.7 percent of the variance, but step 3, which adds Average Home Attendance explains 78.2 percent of the variance, a difference of 7.5 percent. Step 4, which adds winning percentage, explains 80.4 percent of the variance, a difference of 2.2 percent. In Table 14, where only bowls that are at least six years old are studied, winning percentage accounts for 0.7 percent of the variance while Average Home Attendance accounts for 0.5. Notice, which theoretically would become an issue with the increasing number of bowl games played before Christmas and the later invitation dates brought about by the BCS and conference championship games, was not a factor in the bowls that were six years old or more and only explained .6 % of the variance in bowls overall.
Future Studies
Since the adjusted r2 for the first formula is .818, this means the average accuracy of any prediction on bowl attendance would be 81.8 percent (.908/90.8 percent on the second formula). Future studies could focus on bowls that exceed their expected attendance with a qualitative look at the marketing methods used by these bowls compared to other bowls that do not fare as well. Conferences and teams whose bowl appearances draw larger crowds than expected could also be studied.
The second formula, that takes five-year attendance averages into account, could be used by bowl committees to set goals for attendance each year. Since the bowls do not know until December who their participants will be, setting a goal based on this formula’s expectation and using it to measure improvement would be more reasonable.
References
Hardy, Stephen, Bernard J. Mullin and William A. Sutton (2003). Sports Marketing (pp. 55-75). Champaign, Ill: Human Kinetics.
Official Website of the NCAA. Retrieved May 13, 2008 from Ncaa.com.
Ask.com. Retrieved May16, 2008 from Ask.com.
Mapquest. Retrieved May 23, 2008 from Mapquest.com.
