Authors: Ran Wei and Yuanlong Liu

Corresponding author:
Ran Wei, MA
Western Michigan University
1903 W. Michigan Ave., Kalamazoo, MI, USA 49008-5426
Campus Site: Room 4024-4 Student Recreation Center
Phone: (269) 267-2493
Fax: (269) 387-2704
Email: [email protected]

Ran Wei is a doctoral student in the PhD-EHD program of College of Education and Human Development. Her emphasis area is Sport Management in the department of Human Performance and Health Education. Dr. Yuanlong Liu is a professor and chair of the department of Human Performance and Health Education. His specialty is evaluation and measurement in Kinesiology. He serves as editor and associate editor among multiple journals.

Examination of Athletic Best Performance Trends in Track and Field Over One Hundred Years’ History

ABSTRACT

It is always interesting to predict future performance and explore human limits. In this study, 24 events (running, jumping, and throwing) were studied from men’s and women’s track and field events. The best yearly performance data and world record data since 1900 to 2018 were collected. All the events were analyzed by applying longitudinal analysis with scatterplots. The findings revealed that it is encouraging to expect the new world record in men’s shorter running events and women’s longer running events. However, the waiting time for the new world records in men’s longer running events, women’s shorter running events, and both their field events will be much longer as going into the 21st century. For the overall track and field events, both men’s and women’s athletic performance may have reached the asymptotic level. Women’s athletic performances will not surpass men’s performances in track and field in the near future. To explore track and field performance trends and predict future world records, research of new methods and new prediction models are needed when the asymptotic level has been reached.

Keywords: track and field, world record, human limit, athletic performance trends, athletic gender gap

INTRODUCTION

As announced the re-establishment of Modern Olympics in 1892, as well as International Olympic Committee founded in 1894, the booming of sports development has never been stopped (International Olympic Committee [IOC], 2018). The Olympic motto “Citius-Altius-Fortius” (IOC, 2017, p. 23), which means faster-higher-stronger, proposed by Pierre de Coubertin, has motivated the athletic professionals to pursue better performance and new records in their sports. Seeking better performance and new world records has been a hot topic since the beginning of the 20th century (e.g., Dargahi-Noubary, 1994; Liu & Schutz, 1998; Cheuvront, Carter III, DeRuisseau & Moffatt, 2005). Moreover, the predictions of the future ultimate performance and new world records in track and field are inaccurate as are the facts (e.g., Reinboud, 2004; Liu, Paul & Fu, 2012; M. Weiss, Newman, Whitmore, & S. Weiss, 2016). In addition, the mystery of the performance difference between men and women has been discussed in the top world journals, Nature and Science, with variety aspects (e.g., Reinboud, 2004; Rice, 2004; C. Sharp, 2004; Holden, 2004). All the curiosities still attract the attention and the interests of professionals in track and field and related fields in the 21st century (e.g., Cheuvront et al., 2005; Liu, Paul & Fu, 2012; Stephenson & Tawn, 2013; Berthelot, Sedeaud, Marck, Antero-Jacquemin, Schipman, Saulière, & Toussaint, 2015; Weiss et al, 2016). Hereby, the purpose of this study was to examine the trends of athletic performance for both men and women in the overall track and field events. Moreover, the athletic performance differences between men and women were also explored in this study.

Human limits

The maximum running speed and best performances were often discussed in the past decade (e.g., Nevill & Whyte, 2005; Cheuvront et al., 2005; Chang & Kram, 2007; Kruse, Carter, Rosedahl, & Joyner, 2014; Berthelot et al., 2015; Weiss et al., 2016) to examine if the human limitations and athletic peak performance were reached. It was argued in Holden’s (2004) research that no evidence showed that athletes reached their limits in the past century. Nevill & Whyte (2005) analyzed the world record running speed and found that men’s athletic performance limits seem not to be reached yet but close to the maximum running speed. However, they also revealed the clue that in the 1500-meter race, women runners seem to have reached an asymptotic performance limit. As for a marathon, women appear to reach their performance plateau (Cheuvront et al., 2005). Kruse et al. (2014) found that there showed a leveling speed increase in the past three decades. Since women legally started participating in marathons in the late 1970s (e.g., Cheuvront et al., 2005; Nevill & Whyte, 2005), it is recommended that more data should be collected to examine the trends of marathon events (Cheuvront et al, 2005).

Athletic Performance Trends

The well-known magazines, Science and Nature, all have publications on the prediction of men’s and women’s performance trends and the future world records. In 1992, Whipp and Ward proposed the question “will women soon outrun men?” in Science. They projected that the marathon performance intersection would be 1998. However, it has not happened yet. On Nature, another publication also made the prediction that women will outrun men in 2156 in the 100-meter sprint (Tatem, Guerra, Atkinson, & Hay, 2004). Compared with men, women made a doubled time improvement rate in short-distance events from 1920s to 1990s. Besides, athletic performance difference between gender narrowed faster in marathons (Holden, 2004). According to these studies, it would be a high possibility that women may surpass men’s athletic performance someday.

However, there has been different voices in the research world. Holden’s (2004) claimed that it is unlikely that women would outrun men, owing to the physiological and genetic conditions (Berthelot et al., 2015), and biological differences, like aerobic capacity and muscular strength (Cheuvront et al., 2005). As analyzed by Helene and Yamashita (2010), force, power, and energy are the key factors which vary runners’ velocity to minimize the time performance in a certain distance. Since men have more muscle fibers, larger cross-sectional area of muscle associated with greater strength and more muscle tissue, men can exert more force, power and energy which greatly contribute to the performance difference between men and women (Ransdell & Wells, 1999). Nevill & Whyte (2005) stated that little possibility exists that women exceed men’s performance in the middle- and long-distance events. Biological in origin, character stood out as the similar trend of gender differences shown in 100-meter to 10000-meter (Cheuvront et al., 2005). It was statistically claimed that women would continue the long-term running trends with 10-20% slower than men (M. Weiss et al, 2016).

According to the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF), women’s marathon records before 1960s were not officially collected. Importantly, since the running routes are different for each marathon event, these conditions greatly affect the marathon results. So the claim cannot be thoughtfully supported by men’s and women’s results in order to explain the athletic performance gap in marathons (Cheuvront et al, 2005). Moreover, most research data collected were cut off before the 2010s, with few year’s records, which is not sufficient and reliable to make the statement of new trends in track and field in the 21st century (e.g., Cheuvront et al., 2005; Nevill & Whyte, 2005; M. Weiss et al, 2016).

Three research questions guided this study:

  • What is the athletic performance trend in overall men’s track and field events going into the 21st century?
  • What is the athletic performance trend in overall women’s track and field events going into the 21st century?
  • What is the athletic performance gap between men and women in overall track and field events going into the 21st century?

METHODOLOGY

Data Collection

Best yearly performance
In evaluating the trend of track and field performances, as Liu (1993) stated, the most proper data set in track and field record predictions is the best yearly performance data. In this study, the data that were selected relied on the final annual athletic best performances by the end of the year. Owing to so many social influences, like sports participation and training (Cheuvront et al., 2005), information technology (Liebermann, Katz, Hughes, Bartlett, McClements, & Franks, 2002; Kruse et al., 2014;), doping (e.g., Holden, 2004; Nevill & Whyte, 2005; Stephenson & Tawn, 2013; Kruse et al., 2014; ), policy (Cheuvront et al., 2005), gender identification (Stephenson & Tawn, 2013), economic and environmental contexts (Stephenson & Tawn, 2013; Kruse et al., 2014; Berthelot et al., 2015) and so on, all these factors can affect the final performance records and those impacts are hard to be controlled in the athletic performance measurement. Thus in this study we analyzed the overall track and field athletic performance solely based on the best yearly performance data as the dependent variable. Other factors have been accounted as random variables which may have impact on the athletic performance. The data were collected by searching records in “all-time top lists” and selecting “age category” with “senior”, “environment” with “outdoor”, from January 1st to December 31st for each year from the International Association of Athletic Federations [IAAF] official website (IAAF: http://www.iaaf.org/records/all-time-toplists). In case of insufficient data of IAAF before 1990s, the data from Track and Field News were applied.

World record
After collecting the best performance data for each year, the world records for each event were collected accordingly.

Events selection
Some researchers analyzed some track and field events, like only running events (Cheuvront et al., 2005; Nevill & Whyte, 2005). Kruse et al (2014) concluded that the world class performance in men’s 5000-meter and 10000-meter are leveling off and reaching the physiological upper limits. However, that would not be convincing to conclude the results to all track and field events. As Judge and Bellar (2012) stated, male participants were studied more than females. Most findings and conclusions are only available to apply to men’s events which are not convincing for women’s events. So in this research, the data were collected for both gender in all types of track and field events in order to equally and thoroughly analyze the athletic performance trend. In order to look at the performance trend in all the men’s and women’s track and field events, we obtained the top male and female best yearly performances from 1900 to 2018 with 119 years’ data for each of the track and field events. The data of twelve track and field events for both men and women were collected, including eight running events (100-meter, 200-meter, 400-meter, and 800-meter; longer distance: 1500-meter, 5000-meter, and 10000-meter; and marathon), two jumping events (high jump and long jump), and two throwing events (shot put and discus throw).

Data analysis

All the events were analyzed by applying longitudinal analysis with scatterplots from 1900 to 2018 for both men’s and women’s track and field events. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), Version 24.0, was applied to compute the analytical figures. Three aspects were analyzed and conducted, respectively: men’s athletic performance trends, women’s athletic performance trends, and athletic performance difference between men and women. For track events, the events were grouped into shorter distance: (100-meter, 200-meter, 400-meter, and 800-meter) and longer distance (1500-meter, 5000-meter, 10000-meter, and marathon). For field events, we separated by jumping events (high jump, long jump) and throwing events (discus throw, shot put). As for athletic performance difference between men and women, all the events were compared in the X-Y scatterplots separately.

RESULTS

Table 1 and Table 2 show how many years lapsed between new world records being set during the years of 1900-2018; noting the best beginning with 1900 until a new record was set. The first world record is recorded in the first row, and subsequent records are listed vertically in consecutive order as to the years that passed between each new world record set.

Table 1. Years Took to Set Up Next World Record in Men’s Track and Field


Order of WR

100m

200m

400m

800m

1500m

5000m

10000m

MA

LJ

HJ

SP

DT

1st

6

1

12

1

4

7

3*

9*

1

1

60*

62*

2nd

5

2

1

5

4

1

1

4

20

11

2

1

3rd

10

3

3

2

4

4

7

7

3

2

2

1

4th

29

7

12

1

3

10

10

5

1

3

1

1

5th

10

13

4

3

2

2

3

10

3

7

2

3

6th

8

6

4

4

6

8

13

12

3

9

6

3

7th

4

17

3

10

1

7

1

5

4

1

2

5

8th

19

7

7

2

2

3

1

1

25

2

12

2

9th

3

8

4

4

4

12

5

1

1

1

1

3

10th

2

2

5

2

3

1

5

4

1

4

2

5

11th

3

2

1

3

1

1

1

2

2

12

28#

32#

12th

6

7

4

1

2

1

3

3

1

3

 

 

13th

2

4

7

1

5

8

1

1

3

1

 

 

14th

1

17

1

16

1

1

2

1

23

3

 

 

15th

1

13

20

7

1

6

4

2

27#

1

 

 

16th

9#

9#

11

4

1

5

2

2

 

1

 

 

17th

 

 

17

7

10

1

1

12

 

1

 

 

18th

 

 

2#

1

1

3

2

3

 

7

 

 

19th

 

 

 

5

1

1

7

1

 

3

 

 

20th

 

 

 

2

1

3

1

3

 

3

 

 

21st

 

 

 

16

1

2

4

7

 

1

 

 

22nd

 

 

 

13

2

7

1

3

 

1

 

 

23rd

 

 

 

2

7

1

6

1

 

2

 

 

24th

 

 

 

6#

7

2

5

3

 

3

 

 

25th

 

 

 

 

5

1

4

1

 

1

 

 

26th

 

 

 

 

1

6

1

4

 

1

 

 

27th

 

 

 

 

3

14#

1

1

 

2

 

 

28th

 

 

 

 

2

 

1

3

 

1

 

 

29th

 

 

 

 

8

 

1

2

 

1

 

 

30th

 

 

 

 

2

 

1

1

 

4

 

 

31st

 

 

 

 

3

 

6

4

 

25#

 

 

32nd

 

 

 

 

20#

 

1

0#

 

 

 

 

33rd

 

 

 

 

 

 

13#

 

 

 

 

 

Note: “*” = how many years no data available to collect since 1900; “#” = how many years the current world records have been held until December 31st, 2018; WR= world record; MA= Marathon; LJ= long jump; HJ= high jump; SP= shot put; DT= discus throw.

Table 2. Years Took to Set Up Next World Record in Women’s Track and Field


Order of WR

100m

200m

400m

800m

1500m

5000m

10000m

MA

LJ

HJ

SP

DT

1st

21*

20*

21*

21*

27*

69*

67*

63*

21*

1

62*

72*

2nd

4

2

1

1

7

8

3

1

6

2

6

1

3rd

1

2

1

3

2

1

5

3

1

1

1

1

4th

1

1

5

2

1

4

2

3

11

1

3

1

5th

1

1

1

1

3

2

1

1

4

5

1

1

6th

4

1

1

16

4

1

4

2

11

1

1

2

7th

1

2

2

1

2

1

1

1

1

3

1

2

8th

1

3

18

1

9

9

1

1

1

4

1

3

9th

2

2

1

4

1

2

1

2

4

2

1

1

10th

16

1

2

1

1

7

1

1

1

12

3

4

11th

3

17

1

1

1

2

7

1

1

7

4

30#

12th

6

4

1

1

4

1

23

1

1

4

3

 

13th

4

4

1

1

4

1

2#

3

1

8

31#

 

14th

3

5

1

1

1

10#

 

2

4

3

 

 

15th

5

3

1

5

1

 

 

13

2

1

 

 

16th

4

2

1

2

1

 

 

1

6

1

 

 

17th

6

3

3

2

2

 

 

2

2

1

 

 

18th

1

5

7

3

1

 

 

1

4

1

 

 

19th

4

1

1

1

1

 

 

1

1

1

 

 

20th

30#

9

4

3

3

 

 

15#

2

1

 

 

21st

 

30#

2

2

4

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

22nd

 

 

2

3

13

 

 

 

2

10

 

 

23rd

 

 

1

4

22

 

 

 

30#

2

 

 

24th

 

 

3

3

3#

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

25th

 

 

1

35#

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

26th

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

27th

 

 

33#

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

28th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

 

29th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

30th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

31st

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

32nd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

33rd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31#

 

 

Men’s Athletic Performance in Track and Field

As shown from Table 1, from 1900 to 2018 for men’s track events, in shorter distance running events (100-meter, 200-meter, 400-meter, and 800-meter), there have been 15 world records since 1990 in both 100-meter and 200-meter with current world record holding for 9 years. There are 17 world records for 400-meter with current world record holding for 2 years. There are 23 world records in 800-meter with the current world record being held for 6 years. While for the longer distance running events (1500-meter, 5000-meter, and 10000-meter), the current world record has been held for 20 years with a total of 31 world records. There has been over 14 years with no new world record in 5000-meter with 26 world records. And there has been 13 years with no new record in 10000-meter with the most world records, 32. As stated earlier, since the environment condition for each marathon tournament is different, marathons do not have world records but only best performances so that it is not compared here; same for the women’s marathon.

As for men’s field events counting from 1900 to 2018, in jumping events (long jump and high jump), there are 14 long jump world records while there are 30 high jump world records. Significantly, the current long jump world record has been held for 27 years and it took 23 years to set the current world record. In the high jump, there are 25 years no new world record. In throwing events (shot put and discus throw), since 1960 there are only 10 world records in the shot put with the current world record being held for 28 years. Since 1962 there are only 10 world records in the discus throw which has 32 years no new world record, as there was no data available before 1960s (similar cases are shown later in women’s events as well). The discus throw event has the longest current world record held among all the other men’s track and field events.

Women’s Athletic Performance in Track and Field

As seen from Table 2, for women’s track events, in shorter distance running events (100-meter, 200-meter, 400-meter, and 800-meter), 100-meter has 19 world records since 1921 and there was no official data available before 1921. The 200-meter has 20 world records since 1920. However, in both of these two events, there has been 30 years with no new world record. In 400-meter, there are 26 world records since 1921. The current record has been held for 33 years. There are 24 world records in 800-meter since 1921. Surprisingly, the current 800-meter world record has been held for 35 years, which is the longest world record that has been held, not just in women’s track and field events, but also in all the men’s track and field events. In longer distance running events (1500-meter, 5000-meter, and 10000-meter), in 1500-meter, there are 23 world records since 1927. The current world record has been held for 2 years, while it took 22 years to set the current world record. Since 1969 there are 13 world records in the 5000-meter with the current world record holding for 10 years. Since 1967 there are 12 world records in 10000-meter with 2 years with no new world record being set. However, it took 23 years to set the current world record.

In women’s field events, for the jumping events (long jump and high jump), since 1921, there are 22 world records in long jump with current world record holding for 30 years. For high jump, there are 32 world records, which is the most number of the records among all the women’s track and field events; and the current world record has been held for 31 years. In throwing events (shot put and discus throw), since 1962 there are 12 world records in shot put with current world record holding for 31 years. Since 1972 there are 10 world records in the discus throw with current world record holding for 30 years.

Athletic Performance Differences between Men and Women

Athletic performance difference between men and women was represented by calculating the difference between men’s and women’s best yearly performance data in each year since 1900 to 2018 illustrated by scatterplots. All the 12 events were analyzed by applying longitudinal analysis. Each of the Figures (Figure 1 and Figure 2) about athletic performance in track and field events are presented. The solid horizontal line in each figure is the reference line set by the current world record for men’s events. The dotted horizontal line is referred to the current world record for women’s events. The solid vertical line in each figure is the reference line by the year of 2000 in terms of looking at the performance trends of each event as turning the 21st century. The blue marks represent men’s best yearly performance and the red marks for women. The green areas represent the athletic performance difference between men and women in running and jumping events. Since the weights are different in throwing events between men and women, only athletic trends were analyzed rather than comparing the athletic performance difference.

Figure 1. Running Events Athletic Performance on Longitudinal Years

Figure 2. Men’s and Women’s Jumping Events Athletic Performance on Longitudinal Years

Figure 2

DISCUSSION

Men’s Athletic Performance Trends in Track and Field

As shown from Table 1, for men’s track events, in shorter distance running events, 100-meter, 200-meter, 400-meter and 800-meter, within the past couple years, there are still new world records being set. However, for 1500-meter, 5000-meter, and 10000-meter, there have been more than 13 years with no new world record. These facts show that we could still keep the positive attitude to expect new world records. However, the waiting time to set the next world record would be much longer in the 21st century compared with the past century. As for men’s field events, there are over 25 years with no new world records in jumping events and over 28 years with no new world records in throwing events, which confirm the statement that it will take much longer to set the next world record in men’s field events in the 21st century.

Women’s Athletic Performance Trends in Track and Field

As seen from Table 2, for women’s track events, in shorter distance running events (100-meter, 200-meter, 400-meter and 800-meter), there are over 30 years with no new world records. It indicates that a longer waiting time is needed to expect the new world record. While for longer distance running events, like 1500-meter, 5000-meter, and 10000-meter, even though it took over 22 years to set the current world records in 1500-meter and 10000-meter, these are still the new world records which are set in the recent years, 3 years ago in 1500-meter and 2 years ago in 10000-meter. It is safe to assume that there would still be new records set. Moreover, it confirmed the assumption that it could be likely to expect the new world record in the future with a longer waiting time. For the field events, all the current world records in jumping events (high jump and long jump) and throwing events (shot put and discus throw) have been held for over 30 years without new world records being set. These facts also confirm the assumption stated in shorter running events, that the waiting time to set the next world record will be much longer as leading into the 21st century, and the little improvements indicate that it is highly likely that women have reached their asymptotic level in overall track and field events in the 21st century.

Men’s and Women’s Athletic Performance Trends Comparison

As shown in Figure 1 and 2, as going into the 21st century, in men’s running events, there are still some best yearly performance data that fall on or close to the current world records, while women’s best yearly performance data in the majority of the events are far and away above. It reveals that it is more likely to expect the new world record in men’s running events comparing to women’s events in the 21st century.

In jumping and throwing events, both men’s and women’s best yearly performance data fall far below the current world records, only random cases (men’s high jump) are close but below. So the overall men’s and women’s field events indicate that the waiting time to have a new world record will be much longer in the 21st century.

Athletic Performance Difference between Men and Women

As shown in the figures, the green areas (throwing events are not compared as the weights are different for men’s and women’s events) represent the athletic performance gap between men and women. Looking at the athletic performance gap through 20th century to 21st century, it has never been overlapped, which indicates that women’s athletic performance has not exceeded men’s. More specifically, the athletic performance gap had been narrowed during the 20th century. However, as going into the 21st century, the gap in general has been quite stable. As also stated earlier, women might have reached their asymptotic level. Based on the current best yearly performance data, these evidences are showing that there would be little possibility that women will outperform men in the track and field events in the near future. The athletic performance gap between men and women may still exist.

CONCLUSIONS

To answer the first proposed research question in this study, leading into the 21st century, for the athletic performance trend in overall men’s track and field events, it is encouraging to expect new world records in men’s shorter distance running events in the near future. However, it will take a much longer time to expect the next world record in men’s longer distance running events and field events. In order to answer the second research question, it could be possible to expect the new world record in women’s longer distance running events in the near future. However, the waiting time to have the new world record in shorter distance and field events will be much longer as going into the 21st century. As for answering the third research question, comparing the best yearly performance data between men and women in each track and field event, the trends of athletic performance difference stay stable in the 21st century, which reveal that the athletic performance gap between men and women will likely not be diminished or narrowed in the near future among the track and field events.

Overall, athletic performance has experienced stagnation in the majority of men’s and women’s track and field events. The trends of human athletic performance in overall track and field events apparently seems to be leveling off which indicate that human limits may be approaching the asymptotic level going into the 21st century.

FUTURE RESEARCH

Exploring human limits and predicting the future performance always catch the interest of scientists and general public. The future research will be recommended in three aspects: First is to evaluate and develop new prediction models as the overall athletic performances approach the asymptotic level in the 21st century; Second, pay attention to the extreme sports. After the asymptotic levels have been reached in track and field, human beings have started to explore human limits in extreme sports, such as rock climbing, quadrupedal movement and parkour; Last but not least is to develop new technology and training methods to help obtain new world records.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

None

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