Goal-based Metrics Better Than Shot-based Metrics at Predicting Hockey Success

Author: Rob Found
9432-152 Street
Edmonton, AB, Canada
T5R 1N2
(780) 479-7919

Corresponding author: found@ualberta.ca

ABSTRACT
The growing business of professional sports has lead to an increasing demand for effective metrics quantifying factors leading to team success, and evaluating individual player contributions to that success. In the sport of hockey the advancement of analytics has lead to a decline in the use of goal-based metrics, and an increased reliance on shot-based metrics. I tested assumptions behind this trend by using statistical modeling of 10 years of NHL data to directly compare the effectiveness of goal versus shot-based metrics at predicting team success, and comparative hypothesis testing to determine how well goals and shots quantify player contributions to team success. Goal-based models consistently outperformed their shot-based analogs. Models of team goal differential successfully predicted winning % during the 2015-16 season, while shot differential did not. Goal-based metrics (i.e. relative plus-minus/minute of ice time) were also better than shot-based metrics (i.e. relative Corsi/minute of ice time) for evaluating individual player contributions to team winning %. These results show that team and individual performance is not correlated with all shots, but only those shots effective enough to result in goals. These results will lead to more effective evaluation of individual players, and better understanding and prediction of those factors leading to team success.

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The Reliability and Predictive Ability of the Movement Competency Screen in a Military Population

Authors:
Milbank, E.J.1, Peterson, D.D.2, Henry, S.M.1,3
1Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT;
2U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD
3Department of Rehabilitation Therapy, University of Vermont Medical Center

Corresponding Author:
Emily Milbank
Department of Rehabilitation and Movement Science
C/o Sharon Henry
305 Rowell Building
106 Carrigan Drive
University of Vermont
Burlington, VT 05401-0068
802-324-5619
emilbank@uvm.edu

The Reliability and Predictive Ability of the Movement Competency Screen in a Military Population

ABSTRACT:
Purpose: Musculoskeletal injuries in the United States Armed Forces impacts operational readiness. Therefore, a reliable, valid screening tool that identifies injury risk and predicts performance is needed. The purpose of this study was to: (1) establish the intra- and inter-rater reliability of the Movement Competency Screen (MCS) using a cohort of United States Naval Academy fourth class Midshipmen, (2) identify if a correlation exists between average total MCS scores and injury rates during training, and (3) identify if a correlation exists between average total MCS score and performance on the Physical Readiness Test (PRT).

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An Examination of the Coincidence Anticipation Performance of Soccer Players according to their Playing Positions and Different Stimulus Speeds

Authors: Ozcan Saygin (1), Kemal Goral (2), Halil Ibrahim Ceylan* (3), Mugla Sitki Kocman University, Faculty of Sports Sciences, Turkey.

*Corresponding Author:
Halil Ibrahim Ceylan, Research Assistant
Mugla Sitki Kocman University, Faculty of Sports Sciences
Kotekli/Mugla, 48000
halil.ibrahimceylan60@gmail.com
002522111951
(1) Ozcan Saygin is a Professor in Sports Exercise Science at the Mugla Sitki Kocman University studying physical activity and fitness
(2) Kemal Goral is an assistant professor at the Mugla Sitki Kocman University studying competition analysis, performance measurement, futsal, and soccer.
(3) Halil İbrahim Ceylan is a research assistant and doctoral student at the Mugla Sitki Kocman University studying Health and Coaching Sciences.

An Examination of the Coincidence Anticipation Performance of Soccer Players According to their Playing Positions and Different Stimulus Speeds

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to examine the coincidence anticipation timing of soccer players, according to different stimulus speeds and playing positions. Forty licensed soccer players (goalkeepers: 10, defense: 10; midfielder: 10, forward: 10) participated voluntarily in this study. Coincidence anticipation timing performances of the subjects at different stimulus speeds (3mph, 5mph, 8mph) were measured with a Bassin anticipation timer. In order to determine whether the coincidence anticipation timing performance values of the soccer players vary according to different stimulus speeds and player positions, the One-Way Anova Test was used. In order to find from which player position and stimulus speed the difference stemmed, the Tukey HSD Test was used. A significant difference was observed in the (3mph) stimulus speed absolute error score according to the player positions of the soccer players (p less than 0.05). The significant difference stems from the goalkeepers having less absolute error scores than defense and midfielder players and their statistically higher performance accuracy in coincidence anticipation timing. Significant differences were found between the absolute error scores at 3mph, 5mph, 8mph stimulus speeds (p less than 0.05), and it was observed that the absolute error score was less at lower stimulus speeds (3mph) when compared with higher stimulus speeds (8mph), and that the coincidence anticipation timing performance accuracy was better. As a conclusion, it is recommended that activities that improve coincidence anticipation timing of the soccer players at different stimulus speeds should be included when training programs are planned.

Keywords: Coincidence Anticipation Timing, Performance, Player Position, Soccer, Stimulus Speed

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Psychological Determinants of Burnout, Illness and Injury among Elite Junior Athletes

Authors: F. Moen, K. Myhre and Ø. Sandbakk

Corresponding Author:
Frode Moen
E-mail address: frmoe@online.no, Tel. : +47 932 487 50
Postal address: Department of Education, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway

Frode Moen is currently the head manager of the Olympic Athlete program in central Norway, where he also has a position as a coach / mental trainer for elite athletes and coaches. He also is an associate professor at the Department of Education at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. He previously has worked as a teacher in high school where sport was his major subject, and he has been a coach for the national team in Nordic combined in Norway for several years. Frode received his Ph.D. in coaching and performance psychology from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. His research focuses mainly on coaching in business, coaching in sport, communication, performance psychology and relationship issues.

Psychological Determinants of Burnout, Illness and Injury among Elite Junior Athletes

ABSTRACT
This article looks at how psychological variables such as passion, perceived performance, affect, worries and working alliance are associated with athlete burnout and illness and injuries among junior athletes in sport. A sample of 356 junior elite athletes from different sports such as cross country skiing, biathlon, Nordic combined, shooting, ice-hockey, ice-skating, ski jumping, alpine skiing, cycling, track and field, football, orienteering, handball, football and volleyball participated in the investigation. Our results show that harmonic passion, perceived performance, positive and negative affect, worry and working alliance are uniquely associated with athlete burnout, whereas sex, perceived performance and working alliance uniquely are associated with illness and injuries. The results are discussed in regard of applied implications and possible future research.

Keywords: passion, performance, stress, worries, athlete burnout

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Analysis of Contemporary Anaerobic Sport Specific Training Techniques for Rock Climbing

Authors: Justin Mabe* and Stephen L. Butler, Ed.D.

Justin Mabe is a graduate student of the United States Sports Academy and a faculty member of Howard Community College where he instructs in lifetime fitness and health science courses. Previously running a rock climbing wall for the Y, Justin developed an interest in the application of sport and conditioning techniques to rock climbing.

*Corresponding Author:
Justin Mabe
6043 Tree Swallow Ct
Columbia, MD, 21044
jmmabe@students.ussa.edu
443-517-7434

ABSTRACT
This review seeks to centralize research on contemporary training techniques and their purpose in the development of training programs for elite level climbing. A needs analysis determined that elite level rock climbing demonstrates a need for muscular strength, endurance, and flexibility (namely in the hip joint) to be enhanced in order to improve performance in rock climbing.

Current research into sport specific exercises for rock climbers focuses on maximal strength in the finger flexor and forearm muscles with respect to body weight. Additional attributes that contributed to performance are the shoulder girdle and core muscles, flexibility in the hip joints, and enhanced anaerobic energy pathways.

The sport specific exercises identified for development of sport specific attributes are: hang board, campus board, system training, and hyper gravity training. Through an informal movement analysis, three phases of climbing were determined: stabilization, preparation, and displacement. Potential application of the sport specific exercises can be derived from these phases of movement. Exercises that closely replicate certain phases of movement present greater likelihood of improving performance.

Future research in performance enhancement of rock climbers needs to evaluate the efficacy of hang board, campus board, system training, and hyper gravity training in order to reliably demonstrate the value of these exercises. Furthermore, little research has been conducted evaluating the effect of leg and core strength on elite level rock climbing.

In order for coaches and athletes to apply these findings, close evaluation of climbing movement must be conducted in order to best match training apparatus to weaknesses in the athlete’s training. All of the exercises will improve maximal voluntary contractile strength in the finger flexor and forearm muscles. Improving this attribute alone will only assist in the stabilization phase of climbing movement, while each exercise can serve to improve aspects of the other phases of movement.

KEYWORDS: rock climbing, performance, system training

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